高力国际：武汉写字楼季报2014Q2

PRIME OFFICEMARKET OVERVIEWWuhan’s economic growth continued to outperform the national average in 1Q14, with the value of tertiary industry increasing by 8.7% y-o-y (compared to 7.8% for all of China). This trend continued to support demand for prime office properties, and the vacancy rate in 2Q14 decreased compared to 1Q14. Accordingly, overall rent continued to rise, though at a slower pace due to seasonal factors. SUPPLYNo new projects were completed during 2Q14 and total stock of Wuhan’s prime office properties remained at 1,705,207 sqm by end-2Q14. By sub-market, the Jianshe Avenue area remained the largest office market by existing stock (23.8% of total).DEMANDWuhan’s prime office property market continued to absorb the large volume of new supply launched in 2013. On a quarterly basis, net absorption decreased by 20.5%, though the lack of new supply led the vacancy rate to decrease by 4.3 percentage points q-o-q to 18.3% by end-2Q14. Demand came primarily from domestic companies in the finance, insurance and service sectors, though foreign-owned companies played a major role in generating demand at premium quality properties in prime locations.The largest quarterly drop in the vacancy rate was seen in Hankou (including Jianghan, Jiang’an and Qiaokou), where it decreased from 15.6% to 10.6%. In Wuchang (including Hongshan) the vacancy rate declined 3.7 percentage points q-o-q to 25.4% by end-2Q14. The relatively high vacancy rate in Wuchang district was a result of the large amount of supply added to this area in 2013. By sub-market, Wuchang’s Zhongbei Road area saw a decline in its vacancy rate for the second straight quarter, following a spike in end-2013 from the completion of the four blocks of Wanda Hanjie Headquarters project. Headline leasing transactions during the quarter included: PWC’s lease of approximately 500 sqm in Wanda Centre; Samsung and TF Securities leases of approximately 5,600 sqm in Poly Plaza, respectively; the United Kingdom Visa Centre’s lease of approximately 300 sqm in Wanda Hanjie Headquarters; and Minsheng Life Insurance, Huatai Insurance, and a loan company’s respective leases of approximately 2,000, 1,000, and 300 sqm in Ocean Wide Centre, which was completed in 1Q14.优质写字楼市场概览２０１４年第一季度武汉经济增长表现持续优于全国平均水平，第三产业产值同比增加８．７％（相比之下全国增长７．８％）。

该趋势继续支撑了对于优质写字楼物业的需求，本季空置率较上一季度有所下降。

相应地，尽管租金涨幅因季节性因素已有所放缓，整体租金仍继续上升。

供应季内，武汉优质写字楼物业市场无新项目入市，其总存量仍维持在季末的１，７０５，２０７平方米。

就子市场而言，按总存量（占总数２３．８％），建设大道区域仍为武汉最大写字楼子市场。

需求武汉优质写字楼物业市场继续吸纳２０１３年落成的大量新项目。

尽管净吸纳量较上季度减少２０．５％，新增供应之缺乏仍导致空置率环比下降４．３个百分点，至季末的１８．３％。

需求主要源自于金融、保险及服务行业的内资公司，外资公司则仍对核心地段内若干栋超高质量物业需求的产生扮演重要角色。

汉口（含江汉、江岸及硚口）的空置率录得最大环比跌幅，从１５．６％降至１０．６％。

武昌（含洪山）的空置率环比下降３．７个百分点，至季末的２５．４％。

武昌相对较高的空置率实为该区域内２０１３年中大量新增供应的落成所致。

就子市场而言，武昌中北路区域的空置率在四栋万达汉街总部项目于２０１３年末入市之后，出现连续两个季度的下降。

本季瞩目的租赁交易包括：普华永道于万达中心承租约５００平方米；三星和天风证券于保利广场分别租赁５，６００平方米；英国签证中心于万达汉街总部承租约３００平方米；第一季度竣工的泛海中心内，民生人寿保险、华泰寿险、及一家贷款公司分别租赁约２，０００、１，０００和３００平方米。

Figure 2 Wuhan Prime Office Net Effective Rent and Growth Rate图２ 武汉优质写字楼净有效租金和增长率Figure 1 Wuhan Prime Office New Supply, Net Absorption and Vacancy Rate 图１ 武汉优质写字楼新增供应、净吸纳量和空置率Source: Research, Colliers International, Shanghai 数据来源：上海高力国际研究部Source: Research, Colliers International, Shanghai 数据来源：上海高力国际研究部RENTBy end-2Q14, the average net effective rent of Wuhan’s prime office properties edged up by 2.1% q-o-q to RMB91.2 psm per month. J ianshe Avenue continued to record the highest rental level among all the sub-markets at RMB108.0 psm per month, given its limited new supply since 2011 and the development of its finance industry. However, rental growth started to decelerate in two major sub-markets (Jianshe Avenue and Zhongbei Road) as landlords turned cautious ahead of a large amount of high quality projects scheduled for completion in 2H14.INVESTMENTNo en bloc sales transactions for prime office property were announced during 2Q14. The city’s stock of prime office properties held by single landlords continued to be limited, and most landlords of wholly-owned properties remained reluctant to dispose their assets amid steady demand for high quality office properties. By contrast, the strata-titled sales market was far more active during the quarter, with high pre-sales rates achieved by most projects scheduled for completion in 2H14. Demand came primarily from medium to small scale firms and individual investors.OUTLOOKThe sustained economic growth and increasing value of tertiary industry (a major demand generator for office space) will continue to support Wuhan’s prime office property market. New set-ups and expansions from finance, professional services, and real estate are expected to play an important role in the leasing market.Twelve projects with a combined GFA of 760,950 sqm, accounting for 44.6% of the existing stock, are scheduled for completion in 2H14. As most of these projects are located in the Jianshe Avenue and Zhongbei Road areas, their completions are expected to substantially increase the vacancy rate in these two major sub-markets. In turn, the city’s overall vacancy rate will rise in the short-term. Rental levels in these two sub-markets are forecast to decrease as a result of the intensifying leasing competition, though the city’s overall rent is expected to edge up given the predicted above-average rents at new projects in Jianshe Avenue.租金截至２０１４年第二季度末，武汉优质写字楼物业平均净有效租金环比上涨２．１％，至人民币９１．２元每月每平方米。