PPT精选案例模板-Gartner_-_Technology_Trends_2004-2008

Long-fuse technologies
Two to four years from trigger to plateau IM, SMS, USB Performance peaks early Flash Cards. Uses current infrastructure/standards Easy to use Vendor support © 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 6
Maturity in these areas will drive dramatic changes in the way we do business, to a degree not seen since the advent of the Internet
Other Issues: Lack of audit trail QoS limitations Poor integration capability Lost record of decisions Text focused, limited media
8
Options for developing a ‗Real-Time‘ Data Warehouse
The Long View – Mid-Life Pause For Breath for IT-based Transformation of Business
Relative importance
Embedded Connectivity Logical Connectivity Physical Connectivity PCs
Trough of Disillusionment
Slope of Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
Maturity
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 4
Radar Screen
Replicate
Replicate
Replicate
Replicate
DW Avoid The Issue — No Data Warehouse!
Source Source Source Source
Integration Broker
Target Apps.
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
More than 10 years
Mobile payments
Data mining
Network identity services Partner relationship management (PRM)
As of May 2003
Technology Trigger
Peak of Inflated Expectations
Benefit
Digital Wallets Web Services New business WAP/Wireless Web E-Tags models Location Sensing E-Payments Bluetooth Nanocomputing Wireless VoIP LANs/802.11 New Speech Recognition processes Personal Fuel Cells Grid Biometrics P2P Computing Natural Text-to-Speech Language Improved PKI VPN PDA Search processes Phones Low: demonstrations, prototypes and pilots
2
The Hype Cycle
Do not join in just because it is "in" Positive Hype
Negative Hype
Do not miss out just because it is "out" Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Maturity Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity

Internet E-mail
One to two decades from trigger to plateau Science-fiction-like fascination Inherent complexity, business implications. Reliance on certain infrastructure, skills
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Maturity
Moderate: Usable with motivation
Technologies at Different Speeds
Biometrics ―Autonomic Computing‖ Desktop Videoconferencing DNA-Computing Fiber optics Tele-Immersion Holographic Storage Nano-Computing Quantum-Decryption ―Intelligent Agents‖ Machine Translation Intelligent Clothes Handwriting Recognition Smart Dust Speech Recognition
Mainframes "Knowledge" Age Nano & Quantum Age Silicon Age
?
1970
1980
19ห้องสมุดไป่ตู้0
2000
2010
2020
2030
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
– Service Oriented Architectures (SOA), Event Driven Architectures (EDA), Service Oriented Business Applications (SOBA), Service Oriented Development of Applications (SODA), Web Services, Real Time Enterprise (RTE), Business Process Management (BPM) and Modeling and Business Process Fusion gaining major traction and move towards critical mass and mainstream adoption
Visibility
Instant messaging, retail
Five to 10 years
Web services Mobile applications, corporate Business rules engine Document imaging Document management/archive Sales planning and pricing tools Mobile applications, retail Instant messaging, corporate Grid computing Contact chip cards, Europe Artificial intelligence Biometrics E-tag Intelligent agents/push technology E-signatures Speech and voice technologies Contact chip cards, U.S. Chip-based cards, corporate
Maturing in 18-36 months
Wider Applicability
Issues Resolved
Lowered Risk
© 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.
Instant Messaging in the Enterprise
Technology Laws and Innovation Continue…
Moore’s Law – The Fifth Paradigm
Electromechanical
10+10 10+8 10+6 10+4 10+2 10
Relay
Transistor Vacuum Tube
Integrated Circuit
“Fast Track” Technologies
Gartner Predicts: Ten Hot Technologies 2004
The Top Ten Technologies Instant Messaging Real Time Data Warehouse WiFi Security Internal Web Services Policy based management IP Telephony Utility Computing Grid Computing Network Security Technologies RFID Tags