中级宏观经济学多恩布什第八版中山大学徐现祥09
2024年度宏观经济学多恩布什ppt课件
政府可以通过制定产业政策来引导资源配置和产业发展方向，从而影响总供给和总需求结 构。例如，鼓励新兴产业发展可以促进技术创新和产业升级；优化传统产业布局可以提高 资源利用效率和企业竞争力。
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05 货币政策与财政 政策
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货币政策工具、传导机制及效果评估
公开市场操作
通过买卖政府债券等方式调节市场流动性。
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货币政策工具、传导机制及效果评估
• 资产价格渠道：通过影响股票、房地产等资产价格进而影响 财富效应和托宾Q效应。
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货币政策工具、传导机制及效果评估
实现经济增长目标
通过扩张性货币政策刺激总需求 ，促进经济增长。
保持物价稳定
通过调整货币供应量控制通货膨 胀或通货紧缩趋势。
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财政政策工具、传导机制及效果评估
乘数效应
政府支出增加会导致国民收入多倍增加，税收减少也 会导致国民收入多倍增加。
挤出效应
政府支出增加可能导致私人投资减少，因为政府借款 会增加市场利率并减少可用于私人投资的资金。
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财政政策工具、传导机制及效果评估
• 自动稳定器作用：累进税制和失业保 险等制度具有自动稳定经济波动的作 用。
结构性通货膨胀
物价上涨是在总需求并不过多的情况下，而对某些部门的产品需求过多造成部分 产品的价格上涨现象。
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通货膨胀定义、类型及影响分析
对经济的影响
通货膨胀会降低货币的实 际购买力，导致消费者和 企业减少储蓄和投资，从 而影响经济增长。
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第8版多恩布什 宏观经济学 第八章 政策
预期和反应
• 政府一直不能确定经济如何对经济变化作出反应。 这种不确定的产生，部分是由于政府不知道经济 的真是模型是什么，部分是由于政府不知道厂商 和消费者有什么预期，本节重点讨论的内容是预 期的作用。
反应的不确定性
• 假定为刺激经济，政府实行短期减税。 • 为了计算具体减多少税，政府需要猜测公众如何
• 例如美联储决定保持价格稳定，对价格上涨将做 出减少货币供给。民众若相信，则不会把货币增 长和通货膨胀的预期建立在通货膨胀过去的表现 上，预期通货膨胀率将低于实际通胀率，反之亦 然。
不确定性和经济政策
• 政策制定者运用积极的稳定政策时出现错误原因： • 1、厂商和消费者预期的不确定性。 • 2、难以预测类似石油价格变化之类的扰动——生
反应： • 第一种情况，短暂减税不足以增加过多永久性收
入，因而需要大幅提高减税幅度。 • 第二种情况，消费者认为政府减税持续较长时间，
因而边际支出倾向剧增，此时只需要较小幅度减 税即可。 • 如果猜错了，后果很严重，将会造成经济的不稳 定。
政策威信的变化
• 当政府改变它传统的对扰动反应的方式时，特殊 的问题出现了：政策的威信将影响经济走势。
• 有趣的是弗里德曼本人也认为当经济受到极端冲击的 场合下，不应坚持单一货币规则。
• 在一些极端场合，应该采取积极的货币政策和财政政 策以稳定经济。
规则与相机抉择
• 固守规则or相机抉择？ • 在规则与相机抉择的争论中，承认积极规则的可
以及执行效率极高，因而其决策时滞和行动时滞 均很短。 • 相反财政政策就没那么幸运了。需要经历政府制 定，国会批准，因而决策时滞长。另一方面即使 法案通过了，也需要时间付诸执行，所以其行动 时滞也是存在的。
06559_多恩布什《宏观经济学》课件讲义
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总需求曲线推导及影响因素分析
总需求曲线推导
总需求曲线描述了在不同价格水平下，经济 体中所有消费者和投资者愿意并能够购买的 总需求量。它基于微观经济学中的消费者行 为和投资理论，结合宏观经济学中的货币市 场和外汇市场等因素推导而来。
影响因素分析
总需求受到多种因素的影响，包括消费者支 出、投资支出、政府购买、净出口以及货币 供应量等。例如，消费者支出的增加会提高 总需求；货币供应量的增加会降低利率，进 而刺激投资支出和总需求。
紧缩性财政政策
减少政府支出，增加税收，降低 总需求。
紧缩性货币政策
提高利率，减少货币供应，抑制 总需求。
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通货膨胀定义、类型及治理措施
价格管制
通过行政手段对价格进行直接干预和 控制。
增加供给
通过鼓励技术创新、提高劳动生产率 等方式增加商品和服务的供给。
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经济增长源泉、影响因素及政策选择
研究对象
宏观经济学以整个国民经济活动作为考察对象，研究社会总体经济问题以及相应的经济变量的 总量是如何决定的及其相互关系。
任务
宏观经济学的任务是揭示经济总体运行过程中的各种经济总量之间的关系和国民经济收入决定 的基本规律，并对宏观经济现象的变化、发展和结果作出科学的分析和预测，以及为政府制定 宏观经济政策提供科学的依据。
内外均衡概念及关系
阐述内部均衡和外部均衡的定义、内涵及其相互关 系。
开放经济条件下内外均衡冲突
分析在开放经济条件下，内部均衡和外部均衡可能 存在的冲突及其原因。
实现内外均衡的政策搭配
探讨如何通过政策搭配实现内外均衡，包括财政政 策、货币政策、汇率政策等的协调与配合。
《中级宏观经济学》课程教学大纲
《中级宏观经济学》课程教学大纲课程名称：中级宏观经济学课程类别：任意选修课适用专业：经济学考核方式：考查总学时、学分：48学时3学分其中实验学时：0学时一、课程教学目的《宏观经济学》是《西方经济学》的重要组成部分，是一门研究经济总体行为的科学，是我国高等院校经济管理类专业的基础课程。
中级宏观经济学主要应用数学模型分析收入、就业、价格总水平等宏观经济总量的决定及其变动。
本课程的教学目的是要求学生了解、认识和掌握中级宏观经济学的基本原理及方法，理解国民收入决定理论的不同模型，结合中国经济体制改革和市场经济发展实践，培养学生正确运用宏观经济学理论分析我国宏观经济运行中的问题和提出对策的能力，同时也为今后研究生阶段的学习和研究提供理论基础。
二、课程教学要求中级宏观经济学是一门逻辑性较强的课程，需要学生具备一定的数理基础，在教学中要注意问题的背景分析，采用启发式教学，把基本概念和基本模型讲透彻，同时引导学生关注国内外重大宏观经济问题，关注专家对宏观经济事件和经济政策的解读。
注意将数学分析与经济学教学有机结合起来，切实提高学生分析问题、解决问题的能力。
三、先修课程微观经济学、宏观经济学、高等数学、中级微观经济学等四、课程教学重、难点本课程的教学重点是宏观经济学课程的基本理论，包括：国内生产总值、价格水平、失业率等；短期经济波动的三大模型，宏观经济不稳定的表现及稳定宏观经济政策的财政政策、货币政策和供给管理政策等。
本课程的教学难点是利用数学工具推导相关理论，使学生能够在比较规范的分析框架上，运用现代经济学的分析方法分析国内外宏观经济现象，掌握建立经济学模型的基本方法。
五、课程教学方法与教学手段课程采用多媒体教学，课堂讲授和讨论相结合。
通过案例导入和国内外宏观经济问题的分析，展开讨论，激发学生对中级宏观经济学的学习兴趣六、课程教学内容（一）第一章国民收入核算（2学时）1.教学内容（1）产品的生产队生产要素的支付；（2）支出与需求的组成；（3）一些重要的恒等式；（4）计量国内生产总值；（5）通货膨胀与价格指数。
剖析几种经典中级宏观经济学教材
剖析几种经典中级宏观经济学教材鲁峰由于个人兴趣，把国内已经翻译出版的几种主要的中级宏观教材比较了一下，总结一点个人不成熟的学习建议。
本文主要比较的有：多恩布什（6版，人大）；伯南克（6版，机械）；布兰查德（3版，清华影印）；易纲、张帆（人大）；威廉森（2版，人大）；巴罗（5版，人大）；巴罗（现代观点，三联）；曼昆（5版，人大）；萨克斯（全球视角，三联）。
除后两本粗略翻过以外，其他的均读过。
首先说说自己对这几种教材的一般看法和分类。
类别自然是新凯恩斯与新古典两类，前者有多恩布什、伯南克、布兰查德、曼昆，后者有巴罗、威廉森。
萨克斯是个特例，最后再讲。
其次说说学习顺序以及对不同教材的评价。
个人觉得，我们国内的学生最好由新凯恩斯教材入手，一来与国内教材接轨密切，二来与现实结合紧密，能分析一些简单的政策问题，可以获得学习乐趣，三来如果你不想继续深造，那么新凯恩斯框架在你参与实际工作时能派上用场。
接着，对于那些想继续深造的学生，我坚决推荐必须读上一本新古典的教材。
至于为什么，我不再赘述，对现代经济学稍有了解的人都会知道。
下面，我就几种教材分别评述：在新凯恩斯主义的教材中，多恩布什应该是比较老的，优点是它把新凯恩斯主义的核心模型详细叙述了个遍，例如AD-AS模型的微观基础模型（这里的微观基础模型不同于新古典主义的微观基础）它有全面详细的介绍，而布兰查德就没有。
缺点是全书体系不是很清楚，需要自己细心整理。
曼昆的在体系方面就好了许多，而且也对新凯恩斯主义微观基础模型做了比较详细的探讨，唯一的缺点就是他脱离不了“原理式”的写作风格，因此数理深度稍有欠缺。
布兰查德与多恩布什刚好相反，体系十分严谨，结构十分清晰，论述也很有力，而且布兰查德是最不惮于在教材中运用数学的作者之一，因此他的书在数理模型方面远胜曼昆，唯一的缺点就是缺乏新凯恩斯主义微观基础模型。
伯南克的书在以上三本教材风行以后被翻译过来，就在各方面都显得很平庸了。
中级宏观经济学课程简介中文模版
中级宏观经济学课程介绍
课程代码：62094003
课程名称：中级宏观经济学
英文名称：Intermediate Macroeconomics
学分：3 修读期：第7学期
授课对象：经济学、管理学专业
先修课程：微观经济学宏观经济学计量经济学
课程主任：刘文教授经济学博士
课程简介：
本课程主要介绍合并经济账户, 包括总体经济计量国民收入，收入和生产水平的决定因素；以及失业问题, 通货膨胀,经济发展的原因和解决方法。
课程考核：
平时成绩30%；期末考试70%
指定教材：
《宏观经济学》（第8版），多恩布什、费希尔、斯塔兹，中国财政经济出版社，2003 年版
参考书目：
【1】萨缪尔森、诺德豪斯：《经济学》（第17版），人民邮电出版社, 2004年版。
【2】曼昆：《经济学原理》（第4版），北京大学出版社,2006年版。
【3】斯蒂格里茨：《经济学原理》，人民大学出版社,2005年版。
【4】迈克尔·帕金：《宏观经济学》(第8版)，人民邮电出版社,2008年版。
多恩布什中级宏观经济学
• 总量分析——非充分就业均衡
• 有效需求不足——三大心理规律 • 价格刚性——总需求决定总产出 • 国家干预——宏观经济政策
萨缪尔森——新古典综合
• 1948年出版的《经济学》成为第三本最流行的
经济学教科书，直到今天仍然是最受欢迎的入 门教材之一。 • 萨缪尔森将凯恩斯理论与新古典理论视为适用 不同经济条件的理论：在经济萧条时期，适用 凯恩斯理论；当经济恢复到充分就业时，适用 新古典理论。
• 劳动量决定价值 • 边际报酬递减 • “工资铁律”
先进机器设备应用 经济持续增长 工资水平稳步提高
古典理论危机——边际革命
• 古典理论对新经济现实的解释力下降，使其理论地位日落千丈 • 新理论以全盘否定古典理论的姿态出现，以新的视角提出新的体系——边际效 用决定价值 • 基本假定：资源稀缺性、经济人、完全竞争 • 资源稀缺性 边际效用 需求 支付价格 • 需求首次成为决定价值的主要因素。
本课程内容安排
• • • • • • • 第一章 第二章 第三章 第四章 第五章 第六章 第七章 绪论 国民收入核算 经济增长模型 收入与支出—简单凯恩斯模型 IS-LM模型—修正的凯恩斯模型 货币政策与财政政策 IS-LM-BP模型—国际经济联系
• • • • • • • •
第八章 消费与储蓄 第九章 投资支出 第十章 货币需求与供给 第十一章 金融市场 第十二章 AS-AD模型—总供给与总需求 第十三章 总供给曲线推导 第十四章 通货膨胀与失业 第十五章 国际调整与相互依存
• 资产价格：反映了人们的信心，且通过金融杠杆放大 • 贫富分化：不公平的继承性
• 上述解释或许不完美，但说明了金融危机后的深刻反思 • 问题是，中国宏观经济学者和中国的货币当局应该思考什 么？
多恩布什《宏观经济学》(英文第八版)答案-第六章
Chapter 6 Solutions to the Problems in the Textbook:Conceptual Problems:1. The aggregate supply curve and the Phillips curve describe very similar relationships and bothcurves can be used to analyze the same phenomena. The AS-curve shows a relationship between the price level and the level of output. The Phillips curve shows a relationship between the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate, given certain inflationary expectations. For example, a movement along the AS-curve depicts an increase in the price level that is associated with an increase in the level of output. As output increases, the rate of unemployment decreases (see Okun’s law).Therefore, with a larger increase in the price level (a higher level of inflation) there will be a decrease in unemployment, creating a downward-sloping Phillips curve.This downward sloping Phillips curve shifts whenever inflationary expectations change. If one assumes that workers will change their wage demands whenever their inflationary expectations change, one can conclude that a shift in the Phillips curve corresponds to a shift in the upward sloping AS-curve, since higher wages mean higher cost of production.2. In the short run, when wages and prices are assumed to be fixed, there can be no inflation and thusthe Phillips curve makes no sense over this very brief time frame. But in the medium run (in this chapter also often referred to as the short run), the Phillips curve is downward sloping as inflationary expectations are assumed to be constant. In the long run, the Phillips curve is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment, which corresponds to the vertical long-run AS-curve at the full-employment level of output.3. A variety of explanations are given in this chapter for the stickiness of wages in the short orintermediate run. One is that workers have imperfect information and nobody knows the actual price level. People don’t know whether a change in their nominal wage is the result of an increase in prices or in the real wage they receive for the work they provide. Due to this uncertainty, labor markets will not clear immediately. Another argument relies on coordination problems, that is, different firms within an economy cannot coordinate price changes in response to monetary policy changes.Individual firms change their prices only reluctantly, since they are afraid of losing market share. The efficiency wage theory argues that employers pay above market-clearing wages to motivate their workers to work harder. Firms are also reluctant to change wages because of the perceived menu costs involved. There are long-term relations between firms and workers and wages are usually set in nominal terms by wage contracts, which are renegotiated only periodically. Thus real wages fluctuate over time as the price level changes. Finally, the insider-outsider model argues that firms negotiate only with their own employees but not with unemployed workers. Since a turnover in the labor force is costly to firms, they are willing to offer above market-clearing wages to the currently employed rather than hiring the unemployed who may be willing to work for lower wages.These different views are not necessarily mutually exclusive and it is up to students to decide which of the arguments presented here they find most plausible. The explanations differ mainly in their assumption of how fast markets clear and whether employment variations are voluntary.4.a. Stagflation is defined as a period of high unemployment accompanied by high inflation.4.b. Stagflation can occur in time periods when people have high inflationary expectations. If theeconomy goes into a recession, the actual rate of inflation will fall below the expected rate of inflation.However, the actual inflation rate may still be very high while the rate of unemployment is increasing.For example, the Fed may have let money supply grow much too fast in the past, so everyone expectsa high inflation rate. If a supply shock occurs, we will see an increase in the rate of unemploymentwhile inflationary expectations and actual inflation remain very high. This scenario occurred during the 1970s. Once we have reached such a situation, it becomes necessary to design policies that will reduce inflationary expectations to shift the Phillips curve back to the left.5. Assume a disturbance occurs and the AD-curve shifts to the right. Unemployment decreases andinflation increases, and we move along the downward sloping Phillips curve to the left. However, as soon as people realize that actual inflation is higher than their inflationary expectations, they adjust their inflationary expectations upward and the downward-sloping Phillips curve shifts to the right, eventually returning unemployment back to its natural rate. In other words, the economy adjusts back at the full-employment level of income.If an adverse supply shock occurs (the upward-sloping AS-curve shifts to the left), unemployment and inflation increase simultaneously. This will correspond to a shift of the downward-sloping Phillips curve to the right. However, when people realize that actual inflation is less than expected inflation, then the downward-sloping Phillips curve starts to shift back and the economy adjusts back to the natural rate of unemployment in the long run.6.The expectations-augmented Phillips curve predicts that inflation will rise above the expected levelwhen unemployment drops below its natural rate. However, if people know that this is going to happen, why don’t they immediately adjust to it? And if people immediately adjusted to it, wouldn’t this imply that anticipated monetary policy would be ineffective to cause any deviation from the full-employment level of output? In reality, however, even if people have rational expectations, they may not be able to adjust immediately. One reason is that wage contracts often set wages for an extended time period. Similarly, prices cannot always be changed right away and the costs of changing prices may outweigh the benefits. A further argument is that even rational people make forecasting mistakes and learn only slowly.In other words, the location of the expectations-augmented Phillips curve is determined by the level of expected inflation, which is set by recent historical experience. A shift in this curve caused by changing inflationary expectations occurs only gradually. The rational expectations model, on the other hand, assumes that the Phillips curve shifts almost instantaneously as new information about the near future becomes available.Technical Problems:1. A reduction in the supply of money leads to excess demand for money and increased interest rates,reducing the level of private spending (especially investment). Therefore the AD-curve shifts to the left. This causes an excess supply of goods and services at the original price level so the price level starts to decrease. Since the AS-curve is upward sloping, a new short-run macro-equilibrium is reached at a lower level of output (and thus a higher level of unemployment) and a lower price level.PP1However, the higher level of unemployment eventually puts downward pressure on wages, reducing the cost of production and shifting the upward-sloping AS-curve to the right. Alternatively, since this equilibrium output level is below the full-employment level, prices will continue to fall, and the upward-sloping AS-curve will shift to the right. As long as output is below the full-employment level Y*, the upward-sloping AS-curve will continue to shift to the right, which means that the price level will continue to decline. Eventually a new long-run equilibrium will be reached at the full-employment level of output (Y*) and a lower price level.2. According to the rational expectations theory, an announced change in monetary policy wouldimmediately change people’s perception in regard to the expected inflation rate. If people could adjust immediately to this change in inflationary expectations, then the rate of unemployment or the output level would remain the same. In other words, we would immediately move from point 1 to point 3 in the diagram used to explain the previous question and the Fed would be unable to affect the unemployment rate. In reality, however, even if people have rational expectations and can anticipate the effects of a policy change correctly, they may not be able to immediately adjust due to wage contracts, etc. Thus, there will always be some deviation from the full-employment output level Y*.3.a. A favorable supply shock, such as a decline in material prices, shifts the upward-sloping AS-curve tothe right, leading to excess supply at the existing price level. A new short-run equilibrium is reached at a higher level of output and a lower price level. But since output is now above the full-employment level Y*, there is upward pressure on wages and prices and the upward-sloping AS-curve shifts back to the right. A new long-run equilibrium is reached back at the original position (Y*), and the original price level (assuming that the change in material prices did not affect the full-employment level of output). Since nominal wages (W) will have risen but the price level (P) will not have changed, real wages (W/P) will have increased.PP1P20 13.b. Lower material prices lower the cost of production, shifting the upward-sloping AS-curve shiftsto the right, and leading to an increase in output and a lower price level. Since unemployment is now below its natural rate, there is a shortage of labor, providing upward pressure on wages. This will increase the cost of production again, eventually shifting the upward-sloping AS-curve back to the original long-run equilibrium (assuming that potential GDP has not been affected).Additional Problems:1. Explain the long-run effect of an increase in nominal money supply on the amount of realmoney balances available in the economy.In the very short run, the price level is fixed, so if nominal money supply (M) increases, a higher level of real money balances is available, causing interest rates to fall and the level of investment spending to increase. This leads to an increase in aggregate demand. The shift to the right of the AD-curve causes the price level (P) to increase, leading to a reduction in real money balances (M/P). In the medium run (an upward-sloping AS-curve), we reach a new equilibrium at a higher output level and a higher price level. Since prices have gone up proportionally less than nominal money supply, real money balances have increased. However, to reach a new long-run equilibrium, prices have to increase further, and as a result, the level of real money balances will decrease further. When the new long-run equilibrium at Y* is finally reached, the price level will have risen proportionally to nominal money supply and the level of real money balances will be back at its original level.2. Assume the economy is in a recession. Describe an adjustment process that will ensure that theeconomy eventually will return to full employment. How can the government speed up this process?If the economy is in a recession, there will be downward pressure on wages and prices, which will bring the economy back to the full-employment output level. The upward-sloping AS-curve will shift to the right due to lower production costs. However, this process may take a fairly long time. The government can shorten this adjustment process with the help of expansionary fiscal or monetary policies to stimulate aggregate demand. The resulting shift to the right of the AD-curve implies that the final long-run equilibrium will be at a higher price level. In other words, the reduction in unemployment can only be achieved at the cost of higher inflation.3. "The stickiness of wages implies that policy makers can achieve low unemployment only if theyare willing to put up with high inflation." Comment on this statement.There are several explanations of why wages and prices adjust only slowly. One is that workers have imperfect information, so they do not realize that lower prices mean higher real wages. Another is that firms are reluctant to change prices and wages since they are unsure about the behavior of their competitors and want to avoid the perceived cost of making these changes. Finally, wage contracts tend to be long-term and staggered, so it takes time to adjust wages to price changes. Some firms may pay their workers above market-clearing wages to keep them happy and productive. For these reasons, wages and prices tend to be rigid in the short run. Thus it takes time for the economy to adjust back to full-employment.If there were a stable Phillips-curve relationship, a low rate of unemployment could only be achieved by allowing inflation to increase. However, such a stable relationship does not exist. Wages tend to be rigid in the short run, so expansionary policies lower unemployment and increase inflation in the short run. In the long run, however, the economy will adjust back to the natural rate of unemployment, so expansionary policies simply lead to a higher price level.4. "If we assume that people have rational expectations, then fiscal policy is always irrelevant.But monetary policy can still be used to affect the rate of inflation and unemployment."Comment on this statement.Individuals and firms with rational expectations consistently make optimal decisions based on all information available. As long as a policy change is anticipated, people are able to assess its long-run outcome and will try to immediately adjust. Since fiscal policy doesn't affect inflation or unemployment in the long run, it is also ineffective in the short run if wages and prices are assumed to be flexible. An anticipated change in monetary growth, on the other hand, will be reflected in a change in the inflation rate. If wages are flexible, workers will adjust their wage demands immediately and no significant change in the unemployment rate will occur. However, even if people have rational expectations, wages tend to be fairly rigid in the short run due to wage contracts. Therefore, it will take time for the economy to adjust back to a long-run equilibrium. This implies that both fiscal and monetary policy can affect the rate of inflation and unemployment to some degree in the short run.5. "Inflation cannot accelerate in a recession, when the rate of unemployment is above its naturalrate." Comment on this statement.Inflation can accelerate even in a recession, that is, when the unemployment is high, if a supply shock occurs. An oil price increase will increase the cost of production, so the upward-sloping AS-curve will shift to the left. This will increase the inflation rate and the rate of unemployment simultaneously, as firms increase their product prices and cut their production. If the Fed tries to accommodate the supply shock with expansionary monetary policy in an effort to stimulate the economy, then inflation will accelerate even more, as the AD-curve shifts to the right.6. Comment on the following statement:"The coordination approach to the Phillips curve focuses on the problems that the administration has in coordinating its fiscal policies with the monetary policies of the Fed." The coordination approach has nothing to do with fiscal or monetary policy but is simply one explanation of why wages adjust slowly. This view asserts that firms generally are unable to coordinate wage and price changes in response to a monetary policy change. For example, any firm that cuts workers' wages in response to monetary contraction while other firms don't, will anger its employees who may then choose to leave. Firms are also reluctant to change their prices since they are unsure about their competitors' behavior. Thus wages and prices change only slowly in response to a change in aggregate demand. This implies an upward-sloping (short-run) AS-curve.7. Comment on the following statement:"The unemployment rate is zero at the full-employment level of output."With a higher price level real wages decline, increasing the quantity of labor demanded. Therefore the nominal wage rate is bid up until the real wage rate is restored to its unique equilibrium level. Similarly, if prices fall, real wages increase, leading to unemployment. The nominal wage rate falls to bring the real wage rate back to its equilibrium level. So the nominal wage rate changes in proportion to the price level to maintain a real wage rate that clears the labor market. At this wage rate, the full-employment level of output is produced. However, at the full-employment output level the unemployment rate is not zero. Due to frictions in the labor market, there is always a positive unemployment rate, as workers switch between jobs. This is called the natural rate of unemployment.8. Briefly state the reason for the slow adjustment of wages to changes in aggregate demand. The reasons for the slow adjustment of nominal wages can be explained in several ways. One explanation is that workers have imperfect information, that is, they do not immediately realize whether a change in their nominal wage is the result of an increase in prices or in the real wage they receive for the work they provide. Another explanation is that coordination problems exist, that is, different firms within an economy are unsure about the behavior of their competitors and thus they only reluctantly change wages or prices. The efficiency wage theory, on the other hand, argues that firms pay above market-clearing wages to motivate their workers to work harder. Firms are also reluctant to change wages due to the perceived cost of doing so. Another argument is that wage contracts tend to be long-term, so real wages tend to fluctuate over the length of the contract and output adjusts only slowly to price changes. Finally, the insider-outsider model argues that firms negotiate only with their employees but not the unemployed. Since a turnover of the labor force is costly to firms, they are willing to offer above market-clearing wages to the currently employed rather than hiring the unemployed who may be willing to work for less. These various explanations are not mutually exclusive, and they all imply that the AS-curve is positively sloped, that is, that a change in aggregate demand will affect both output and prices in the short run.9. True or false? Why?"There is no frictional unemployment at the natural rate of unemployment."False. The natural rate of unemployment is the rate at which the labor market is in equilibrium. But there is always some unemployment due to new entrants into the labor force, people between jobs, and the like.This rate of unemployment is considered normal, due to frictions in the labor market, and is often called frictional unemployment.10. "If everyone in this economy had rational expectations, then wages would be flexible andunemployment could not occur." Comment on this statement.The new Keynesian models argue that even if people have rational expectations, socially undesirable outcomes may still occur due to imperfect competition and the existence of wage contracts. Prices may not change freely, since firms in imperfectly competitive markets are reluctant to change them, due to the menu costs involved. Nominal wages are set by contracts over a period of time, so the economy may adjust only slowly to a decrease in aggregate demand. Thus a rate of unemployment higher than the natural rate can exist over an extended period of time.11. True or false? Why?"If nominal wages were more flexible, expansionary policies would be more effective in reducing the rate of unemployment."False. In Chapter 5 we learned that in the classical case (where nominal wages are completely flexible) the AS-curve is vertical, whereas in the Keynesian case (where wages do not change, even if unemployment persists) the AS-curve is horizontal. From this we can conclude that more flexible nominal wages imply a steeper upward-sloping AS-curve. Any type of expansionary demand-side policy will shift the AD-curve to the right and this will cause the level of output and prices to increase (at least in the short-run). A steeper upward-sloping AS-curve results in a larger price increase and a smaller increase in output. But a smaller increase in the level of output results in a smaller reduction in unemployment. In either case, the economy will settle back at the full-employment level of output in the long run. In the long run, the rate of unemployment always goes back to its natural level.12. Explain the short-run and long-run effects of an increase in the level of government spendingon output, unemployment, interest rates, prices, and real money balances.An increase in government spending increases aggregate demand, shifting the AD-curve to the right. Because there is excess demand, the price level increases, which reduces the level of real money balances. Therefore interest rates increase, leading to some crowding out of investment. Due to this real balance effect, the increase in output is less than the shift in the AD-curve. Assuming an upward-sloping AS-curve, a new equilibrium is reached at a higher price level, a higher level of output, a lower unemployment rate and a higher interest rate. Since output is now above the full-employment level, wages and prices will continue to rise and the upward-sloping AS-curve will start shifting to the left. This process will continue until a new long-run equilibrium is reached at the full-employment level of income Y*, that is, until unemployment is back at its natural rate. At this point the price level, nominal wages, and interest rates will be higher than previously and real money balances will be lower.13. Briefly explain why there seems to be so much interest in finding ways to shift theupward-sloping aggregate supply curve to the right.Shifting the upward-sloping AS-curve to the right seems to be the only way to offset the effects of an adverse supply shock without any negative side effects. An adverse supply shock, such as an increase in oil prices, causes a simultaneous increase in unemployment and inflation, and policy makers have only two options for demand-management policies. Expansionary fiscal or monetary policy will help to achieve full employment faster but will raise the price level, while restrictive fiscal or monetary policy will reduce inflationary pressure but increase unemployment. Therefore, any policy that would shift the upward sloping AS-curve back to the right seems preferable, since it might bring the economy back to the original equilibrium by simultaneously lowering inflation and unemployment.14. Use an AD-AS framework to show the effect of monetary restriction on the level of output,prices and the interest rate in the medium and the long run.A decrease in nominal money supply will increase interest rates, leading to a decrease in investment spending. This will shift the AD-curve to the left, creating an excess supply of goods and services. Therefore price level will decrease and real money balances will increase. A new equilibrium will be achieved at the intersection of the new AD-curve and the upward-sloping AS-curve at an output level that is below the full-employment level.In the long run, higher unemployment will cause downward pressure on wages. As the cost of production decreases, the upward-sloping AS-curve will keep shifting to the right until a new long-run equilibrium is established at the full-employment level of output, that is, where the new AD-curve intersects the long-run vertical AS-curve at Y*. At this point, real output, the real interest rate, real money balances, and the real wage rate will be back at their original level. Nominal money supply, the price level and the nominal wage rate will all have decreased proportionally.A simplified adjustment can be shown as follows:1-->2: Ms down ==> i up ==> I down ==> Y down ==> the AD-curve shifts left ==>excess supply ==> P down ==> real ms up ==> i down ==> I up ==> Y up(The first line describes a policy change, that is, a shift in the AD-curve; the second line describes the price adjustment, that is, a movement along the AD-curve.)Short-run effect:Y down, i up, P down2-->3: Since Y < Y* ==> downwards pressure on nominal wages ==> cost of production down ==> the short run AS-curve shifts right ==> excess supply of goods ==> P down ==> real ms up==> i down ==> I up ==> Y up (This process continues until Y = Y*)Long-run effect:Y stays at Y*, i remains the same, P down.Note: Even though only one shift of the short-run AS-curve to the new long-run equilibrium is shown here, this shift is actually a combination of many shifts.P2P1P2P30 215. Briefly discuss the importance of Okun’s law in evaluating the cost of unemployment.Okun’s law states that a reduction in the unemployment rate of 1 percent will increase the level of output by about 2 percent. This relationship allows us to measure the cost to society (in terms of lost production) of a given rate of unemployment.16. True or false? Why?"If monetary policy accommodates an adverse supply shock, it will worsen any inflationary effects."True. An adverse supply shock shifts the upward-sloping AS-curve to the left. There is excess demand for goods and services at the original price level and prices start to rise, leading to lower real money balances, higher interest rates, and lower output. If no policy is implemented, then unemployment will force the nominal wage down to restore equilibrium at the original position. If the government views this adjustment process as too slow, it can respond by implementing expansionary policies. Accommodating the supply shock in this way shifts the AD-curve to the right and a new equilibrium can be reached at full-employment but at a higher price level. It is unlikely, though, that the economy will remain there for long since workers will realize that their purchasing power has been diminished by higher prices and will demand a wage increase. If they are successful, the cost of production will increase and the upward-sloping AS-curve will shift to the left again. In other words, we will enter a wage-price spiral.PP3P2P1217. Assume oil prices decline. What kind of monetary policy should the Fed undertake if its goal isto stabilize the level of output while keeping inflation low? Show with the help of an AD-AS diagram and briefly explain the adjustment process.1-->2: As oil prices decline, the cost of production decreases and the upward-sloping AS-curve shifts to the right, causing excess supply of goods. Thus the price level decreases, real money balances increase, and the interest rate declines.2-->3: A decrease in money supply will increase the interest rate, decrease private spending, and shift the AD-curve to the left. This means that prices will decrease even further and the level of output will decline. (We assume, for simplicity, that it goes back to the full-employment level Y*, so no long-run adjustment is needed.) Overall, the level of output has remained at its full-employment level but the level of prices and the interest rate have decreased.PP1P2218. Comment on the following statement:"A favorable oil shock causes lower inflation and lower unemployment."A decrease in material prices (or any other favorable supply shock) shifts theupward-sloping AS-curve to the right, and prices begin to decrease. The new equilibrium is at a lower price level and a higher level of output (a lower level of unemployment).Since output is now above the full-employment level, there will be upward pressure on nominal wages and prices, and the upward-sloping AS-curve will start shifting back to its original position (assuming that potential output was not affected). In the long run, unemployment will be back at its natural rate but the price level will have decreased (and thus real wages increased).19. “Falling oil prices will lead to increased employment, higher wage rates an dincreased real money balances.” Comment on this statement with the help of an AD-AS diagram and explain the short-run and long-run adjustment processes.A decline in material prices shifts the upward-sloping AS-curve to the right, leading to excess supply at the existing price level. A new equilibrium is reached at a higher level of output and a lower price level. But since output is now above the full-employment level Y*, there is upward pressure on wages and prices and the upward-sloping AS-curve starts shifting back to the right. A new long-run equilibrium is reached back at the original position (Y*), and the original price level (assuming that the change in material prices did not affect the full-employment level of output). Since nominal wages (W) will have risen but the price level (P) will not have changed, real wages (W/P) will have increased.PP1P2Y*Y2Y。
多恩布什,中级宏观经济学
Lecture twodemand-side equilibriumequilibrium Income and the interest rate in the product market● product marketbasic identity: ()()y c y t y i g =−++ (1)① total expenditure as a function of income equals income② level of investment are exogenous and given.● Investment demand and the interest rateThe level of fixed investment planned by a firm might depend on the market interest rate.① intuitively, interest rate is the cost of investment.② Present discounted value theorySo, we get the simplest investment model: (),i i r i 0′=<. Substituting it into the original equilibrium equation gives us the product-market equilibrium condition,()()()y c y t y i r g =−++ (4)● Derivation of the IS curveThe IS curve represents the pairs of r and y that will keep the product market in equilibrium, in the sense that planned investment plus government purchases equals planned saving plus tax revenue at that level of income. Equation (4) is the IS curve. Fig4-4, IS curve is a downward curve.Three methods① graphically, fig4-3 and fig 4-4② mathematically, differentiating equation (4), hold g is fixed.③ Four-quadrant diagram in figure 4-5● Shifting the IS curveThe four-quadrant diagram is useful for studying the effects of changes in exogenous variables like g, or shifts in the investment, saving, or tax functions on the product-market equilibrium r and y levels.Fig4-5 shifts in the savingFig4-6 change of government purchaseequilibrium Income and the interest rate in the money marketProduct equilibrium IS curve infinity of potential equilibrium points (r,y)Money market equilibrium LM curve ………………………………………….Two curves determinate the only equilibrium income and interest rate!Money M defining as currency in circulation plus demand deposits, that is , checking account deposits.Liquid assets: money (no interest rate), bonds (interest rate as its return)● Demand for money and real balancesMoney demand:① speculative demand==.()l r Since people can put their liquid assets into either money or bonds, we might expect thatan increase in the interest rate, or the rate of return on bonds, would tempt them to putmore of their assets into bonds and less into money.0l ′<② transactions demand==,()k y 0k ′>.③ Both components of the demand for money, the transactions demand and the speculativedemand, should be stated as demand for real money banlances, /M P m =.④ Demand function for real balances: ()()/,0M P l r k y l k ,0′′=+<>Or in general, it might be written as ()/,M P m r y =, for speculative demand andtransaction demand could not be separated. For example..⑤ Fig 4-7 shows the money demand function. Shape and curvature of the demand function.●Money supply:We will assume that the amount of currency and demand deposits in the economy are fixed byinstitutional arrangements between the commercial banking system and the Federal Reserve board. M M =Fig 4-8 show demand and supply in the money market.● Money market clear condition: LM curve (7) ()()()/,M P m r y l r k y =≈+● Derivation of the LM curveThe LM curv e represents the pairs of r and y that will keep the money market in equilibriumwith a given level of the money supply, M, and a given price level P.Fig4-9 the LM curve: Equilibrium r and y in the money market.Differentiation of the equilibrium condition, equation (7)We get the LM curve’s slope /0k dr dy l ′=−>′. ● Shifting the LM curveFour quadrant diagram of fig4-9 is useful in analyzing the effects of changes in exogenous variables or shifts in the speculative demand or transactions demand functions on the equilibrium values of r and y in the money market.Increase in money supply (open market operation)Increase of price levelIncrease of speculative/transactions demandEquilibrium in the product and money marketsBy placing IS and LM curves in the same quadrant, that is, by solving equation (4)and(7)simultaneously, we can find the single r, y pair that gives equilibrium in both markets, the intersection of the IS and LM curves.fig4-10()()()y c y t y i r g =−++()()(/,)M P m r y l r k y =≈+Attention:Financial markets have prices that adjust very rapidly; interest rates move every minute to equate supply and demand in the bond market. Goods markets react much more slowly.So when the economy is disequilibrium, the money market will adjust immediately and then the LM curve will move gradually toward the IS curve.fig4-11● Effect of an increasing in gFig4-12Government spending increasing multiplier process,income rise transaction demand rises →interest rate rise→→→→investment reduce, the income does not rise so much in multiplier process.Crowding out effectAnother explanation: government need to borrow to financial its spending through issuing bonds. So government should offer higher interest rate to tempt the public to buy them.Differentiation of equation (4) and (7) with respect to g● Effect of an increase in M……● Income and the price level on the demand sideFigure 4-13Economy’s demand curve: as the price level P increases, the equilibrium output y demanded in the economy decreases. Fig4-14.Substituting equation (4) into (7) and eliminating r, we could get the demand curve.Attention:Movement along the demand curve thift the demand curveOrdinary demand curve and aggregate demand curveFiscal policy● the purpose of monetary(money supply) and fiscal policy(government purchase and taxation)is to maintain output near full employment in the economy and to maintain the existing price level.● Fiscal policy effects on demandFiscal policy: government purchase and taxationFiscal policy changes will shift IS curve and will not change LM curve.Fig5.3 is used for considering the effects on demand of fiscal policy● Changes in government spending, gFig 5.3Results: government purchase(↑)→ income(↑),tax(→) →disposable income and consumer spending(↑)→multiplier process→ income(↑)→interest rate(↑,for money demand ↑, or government issuing bonds with higher interest rate) →investment(↓,partially offsetting the government purchase)● Changes in the tax schedule, t(y)Fig 5.5Results: tax rate(↓)→ government purchase and investment(→) →disposable income and consumer spending(↑)→multiplier process→income(↑)→interest rate(↑,for money demand ↑, or government issuing bonds with higher interest rate) →investment(↓,partially offsetting the government purchase)Notes:① governments cutting tax while keeping government purchase unchanged have toissue bonds for raising money② government purchase increase and tax cutSame points: income increase and interest rate riseDifference: composition of incomeTax: rising consumptionGovernment purchase: higher share of government expenditure● the multiplier for g changesIS-LM Model:()()():IS y c y t y i r g =−++ (3)()()0:M LM l r k y P =+ (4)0,1,0,0,0c t i l k ′′′′′<<<<>Differentiating the IS and LM curve:()1dy c t dy i dr dg ′′′=−++k dr dy l ′=−′(LM curve’s slope) Final multiplier expression:()111dy dg i k c t l =′′′′−−+′ (5)① what happened for multiplier?i k l ′′′ ② i k l′′′ gives the decrease in investment that comes from the interest rate increase along LM curve③ 0k l ′−=′(LM curve flatter), no money market effects and interest rate constant, government purchase multiplier giving in chapter 3.k l ′−→∞′(LM curve steeper), multiplier approaching to zero④ Example in textbook● Effectiveness of fiscal policyFig 5.8Lower interest rate and income, effectiveness of fiscal policy is largerHigher interest rate and income, effectiveness of fiscal policy is smallerEconomic explanation:● The multiplier for tax rate changesIS-LM Model:()():IS y c y y i r g τ=−++ (6)()()0:M LM l r k y P =+ (7) Differentiating IS and LM curve…………..Multiplier:()011c ydy d i k c l ττ′−=′′′−−+′ (8)①yd τis the change in disposable income that comes directly from the tax rate change, c yd τ′ is the change in consumption spending that comes from this change of disposable income.②interpreting the numerator of the tax multiplier c yd τ′as the direct change in consumption following from a tax change makes the multiplier for tax changes and g changes essentially the same.③ Major difference between fiscal policy changes in g and in tax rates.(1) composition of equilibrium output(2) a tax cut will affect the economy only if consumers increase their spending as aresult.(barro-ricardo equivalence)● the balanced-budget multipliertax revenues are fixed exogenously: ()t y t =IS-LM Model:()():IS y c y t i r g =−++ (9)()()0:M LM l r k y P =+ (10) Differentiation of (9) and (10) ……………..1dg c dt dy i k c l ′−=′′′−+′With dg dt =,banlanced-budget multiplier:()11c dy dg i k c l ′−=′′′−+′ (11)Introducing of money market effects on investment has reduced the value of the balanced-budget multiplier.Monetary policy● Monetary policy effects on demand Monetary policy changes in M will now shift the LM curve along the given IS curve,● Changes in the money supplyFig5.10① initial income fixed→transaction demand(→)→speculative demand(↑,formoney supply unchanged) →interest rate(↓)→investment(↑)→income and output(↑)② initial interest rate fixed →speculative demand(→)→transaction demand(↑,formoney supply constant)→income and output(↑) (economy operates more like ①,why?)③ increasing of money supply shifts the aggregate demand right④ composition of output change in fiscal and monetary policyconsumption endogenous determinate(multiplier)government purchase: government expenditure increase and partial offsetting by decrease of investmenttax: direct consumption increase and investment reducesmonetary policy: investment increase● the multiplier for change in money supplyIS-LM Model:()()():IS y c y t y i r g =−++ (13)()()0:M LM l r k y P =+ (14) (constant, 0P 0/dm dM P =)Differentiating IS and LM curve, we get()/11i l dy dm i k c t l ′′=′′′′−−+′ (15)①is the drop in r initially induced by the dm increase, /dm l ′/i dm l ′′is the investment increase resulting from the drop in r induced by dm.②Example in textbook③fig 5-12 could be used for interpreting money supply multiplier● the effectiveness of monetary policy① fig5-13show that with a given slope of IS curve, a given shift in the LM curve due toincrease in the money supply will have a greater effect on y at high levels of y and r than at low levels② another economic explanation using multiplier (15)()11i dy dm l c t i k ′=′′′′′−−+⎡⎤⎣⎦ (1) is larger negative number, flatter LM curve due to flatter l ′()l r curve(fig5-14),the economy at low level of r and y, so people may be indifferent between holding money and bonds, speculative balances absorb an increase of money supply with little effect on r and investment and income.(2) is small negative number, vertical LM curve due to steeper l ′()l r curve(fig5-14),theeconomy at high level of r and y. in this area, speculative balances have been squeezed to a minimum by the higher r, so that almost money supply increase is used to finance transactions.● The interaction of monetary and fiscal policesDemand management e ffectiveness and certainty● The effectiveness and certainty of monetary and fiscal policy① effectiveness: fig5-15low (r, y) fiscal policy is more availablehigh(r y) monetary policy is more effective② certaintytwo parts of multiplier(1) denominator is the same(2) numerator is the expression for the directly induced expenditure change that followsa change in a policy instrumentgovernment expenditure exogenous highest degree of certaintydg tax c ydt ′− effectiveness depends on consumption behavior(consumer may beincreasing saving for tax cutting) not certainty like government purchasemoney supply , being effective only (1) if the change affects the interestrate and credit conditions facing investors (2) if these changes affect investmentspending./i dm l ′′③stabilization policy formula● the monetary-fiscal policy mix● multipliers and the aggregate demand curve。
宏观经济学——多恩布什
价值增值法 支出法 收入法
其他收入的概念 国民收入基本公式
11
国内生产总值（GDP）
国内生产总值是经济社会（即一个国家或一 个地区）在一定时期内（一般指一年）生产 的全部最终产品和劳务的市场价值。
特点
市场价值 最终产品，不含中间产品，防止重复计算 生产而非销售 流量
GDP=工资+利息+利润+租金+间接税和企业转移 支付+折旧+统计误差
17
其他收入
国民生产总值（GNP）
国外要素所的净值（支付NFP）
国内生产净值（NDP） 国民收入（NI）
生产要素报酬之和
个人收入（PI）
NI中减去公司未分配利润、公司所得税及社会保险税， 加上政府给个人的转移支付
22
收入与支出循环流
23
通货膨胀与价格指数
实际GDP
计量不同时期中经济 实际发生的产出变化
产出以同一价格或不 变美元估价
通货膨胀
通货膨胀是物价的变 化率，物价水平是以 前通货膨胀的积累
价格指数
GDP紧缩指数 π+1
消费物价指数CPI
与GDP紧缩指数 个人消费支出紧缩指数
生产物价指数PPI 核心通货膨胀
3
宏观经济学和微观经济学
微观研究森林中的树木，宏观研究森林整体； 微观以价格为中心，宏观以收入和就业为中心； 宏观以微观为基础； 宏观行为非微观行为的简单加总； 微观用个量分析方法，宏观用总量分析方法；
微观假设市场出清，宏观一般市场失灵。
宏观经济学的起源：大萧条——凯恩斯
私人支出不足导致萧条和高失业 短期问题企业ຫໍສະໝຸດ 14用支出法核算GDP
(完整版)多恩布什宏观经济学知识点梳理
多恩布什宏观经济学知识点梳理（原创）课后题部分的概念题，可以不看，因为能考到的名词解释已经全部总结到笔记上了。
第一章绪论总供给—总需求模型的三种情况是重要知识，即长期、短期和正常的三种情况。
课后习题部分可以不看第二章国民收入核算本章知识点较为重要，是宏观经济学的基础知识，要求能够很好的理解掌握计算与分析题：3、4第三章增长和积累本章最重要的知识点就是增长核算方程和新古典增长模型，属于重要考点，曾作为计算题出现过，要求对金圣才笔记上的内容能够很好的掌握。
计算与分析题：3、7、第四章增长和政策本章不是重点内容，了解内生增长模型。
黄金率的资本存量是重要的概念，可能会出名字解释。
计算与分析题：4、5第五章总供给与总需求本章的知识非常的重要，是出论述题的重要考点之一，要求整章内容都要很好的理解和掌握。
简答题：2计算和分析题：1、2、补录部分的6、8第六章总供给：工资、价格与失业本章的内容较为重要，菲利普斯曲线、附加通货膨胀预期的菲利普斯曲线、滞涨、理性预期、粘性工资、内部人外部人模型、奥肯定律供给冲击都是重要的概念。
在供给冲击部分很有可能会结合其他相关知识出简答或者是论述题。
要求对本章的内容都能够很好的理解掌握。
计算与分析题：3、附录部分3、6、7、8第七章通货膨胀与失业的解剖本章主要都是概念性的问题，理解记忆即可。
周期性失业、摩擦型失业、自然失业率、完全预期到的通货膨胀、皮鞋成本、菜单成本、牺牲率、痛苦指数、指数化等都是重要的概念，第6部分的政治性经济周期理论不是重点内容，因为在中国不存在类似问题。
课后题部分没什么特别好的题目，可以不做。
第八章政策本章的内容是重要的考点之一，可结合经济政策出相关的论述题和简答题。
在复习本章的过程中要注意把握重要的概念。
内部时滞、外部时滞、自动稳定器、乘数的不确定性、微调、相机抉择、动态不一致都是重要的概念。
课后题部分没有特别重要的题目，看看即可。
第九章收入和支出本章是重要的考点，理解性的知识和记忆性的知识都很多，对重要的概念和图形都要求能够很好的把握和理解，很容易结合本章知识点出计算题。
多恩布什宏观经济学课件-第9章收入与支出
◦ 消费与收入之间的关系以消费函数表示。
◦ C=C+cY
C >0 0<c<1
（ 4）
◦ 变量C,即截距代表收入为零的消费水平，这 是必不可少的消费部分，不随收入变动而变 动。 ◦ cY表示引致消费部分，随收入变化而变化
◦ 系数c为边际消费倾向。
边际消费倾向是收入增加每一单位时所 增加的消费。
BS tY G TR
(22a)
预 算 盈 余 收入，支出
图9-7 预算盈余
9.5.1 政府采购与税收变化对预算盈余 的影响
利用方程（21）替代 G ，于是，预算 的变化为：
BS TA G t G G G 1 1 G 1 c1 t
◦ Y=AD ◦ 又AD= =A+cY ◦ 从而有Y=A+cY
1 Y0 A 1 c
上述方程表明产出水平是边际消费倾向与自主 性支出的函数。
边际消费倾向c越大，自主支出水平A越高，则 均衡产出水平越高。
1 Y A 1 c
9.2.6 储蓄与投资
在均衡状态下，计划投资等于储蓄。
◦ （这个条件只适用于没有政府部门和对外贸易的 经济）
BS tY G TR
(24)
BS BS t Y Y
(25)
9.1 总需求与均衡产出
总需求(Aggregate demand)：总需求 是经济中商品需求的总量。 ◦ AD = C + I + G + NX （ 1） 均衡产出：当生产的产出数量等于需求 的数量时，产出就处于均衡水平。 ◦ Y=AD = C + I + G + NX （2）
第一讲中级宏观经济学序论XX09sy
§ 1988年到1990年，任世界银行首席经济学家。1994年进 入国际货币基金组织。
§ 研究兴趣主要在经济增长与发展，国际经济学与宏观经 济学、特别是通货膨胀及其稳定措施，以及转型经济学 等方面。
§ from Canada to Argentina to Australia; all over Europe; in India, Indonesia, and Japan; and from China and Albania to Russia.
§ There is no greater pleasure for teachers and textbook authors than to see their efforts succeed so concretely around the world.
§macroeconomic scene §recent news on Macroeconomic issues
PPT文档演模板
第一讲中级宏观经济学序论XX09sy
任课教师
舒元: 020-84110801(0) Lnssy@
史卫: 020-84110655(0) shiwei@
PPT文档演模板
第一讲中级宏观经济学序论XX09sy
教材－作者
▪ Richard Startz （斯塔兹）
PPT文档演模板
第一讲中级宏观经济学序论XX09sy
Richard Startz
§ 里查德·斯塔兹 ，华盛顿大学经济学系主任。他是耶鲁大 学本科生，麻省理工学院博士，在斯坦利·费希尔和鲁 迪·多恩布什指导下学习。
多恩布什宏观经济学
Copyright 2007 Business School of Xiangtan University
32
Business Cycle
Copyright 2007 Business School of Xiangtan University
结论2：高通货膨胀率总是由总需求的变化 引起的。
高通货膨胀率的唯一原因是滥发货币
Copyright 2007 Business School of Xiangtan University
22
短期模型：产出波动
短期模型关注的是实际产出、失业等宏观 经济变量的波动；
短期通常假设生产要素大量闲置，产出具 有充分弹性，因此短期总供给曲线是水平 的；
那么到达3.2% 为什么会有增长？各国增长差异的原因是
什么？什么政策可提高一国长期平均增长 率？
Copyright 2007 Business School of Xiangtan University
31
经济周期与 GDP
经济周期描述的是一国经济围绕增长趋势 线进展有规律的扩张〔复苏〕与收缩〔衰 退〕的现象。
间增长率的差异 经济增长的主要原因有 新技术的开展 物质与人力资本的积累 良好的根底设施 高国内储蓄率
Copyright 2007 Business School of Xiangtan University
18
长期模型：生产能力不变的经济
决定通货膨胀率的因素是什么？ 长期中，所有要素被假设处于充分就业状
背景 现实背景 理论背景 凯恩斯革命：?就业、利息和货币通论?
，1936年出版，被认为是第一部系统 地运用了总量分析方法来研究整个国民 经济活动的宏观经济学著作。
中山大学硕士研究生参考书目
承载梦想，启航未来
中山大学硕士研究生参考书目
学术型
岭南学院、粤港澳发展研究院
初试专业课：801微观经济学与宏观经济学
参考书目：
《微观经济学：现代观点》范里安
《宏观经济学》多恩布什
《图解微观经济学》欧瑞秋
《图解宏观经济学》徐现祥
中山大学801微观经济学与宏观经济学最近几年的难度一直有提高，而且试卷有自身的特点，801注重考察学生画图分析问题的能力，所以参考书目中才会有图解微宏观经济学这两本，所以要好好看这两本书；博弈论也是考试热点，最近几年都有出，而且有一定难度，要重点复习；在宏观经济学方面，喜欢考察学生用经济理论分析经济学热点问题。
多恩布什宏观经济学课件
u
w real wage g realwage g w g p p
grealwage gw e
菲利普斯曲线—发展
原始的Phillips曲线就可以变为
gw e (u u*)
gw e (u u*)
gW
如果u*不变，预期通货膨胀发 生变化，比如增加，Phillips 曲线将会如何变化？
S-I=(G+TR-TA)+NEX
1. 经济增长的典型事实
预备知识 当今世界的发展概况 人类发展的历史 经济增长的典型事实
增长分析中的常用技巧
时间的度量
离散的和连续的两种
导数：
K t Kt t dK lim ＝K t 0 t dt
d ln( K ) K ln( K ) ＝ dt K
D．短期内，通货膨胀率与失业率之间存 在反向替代关系，菲利普斯曲线比较平 坦；在长期内通货膨胀率与失业率之间 不存在反向替代关系；菲利普斯曲线为 垂直线； E．当沿着高预期通货膨胀的短期菲利普 斯曲线上存在经济衰退时（实际失业率 高于自然失业率），就会形成滞胀―― 高失业与高通货膨胀同时并存局面。
k sk (n d )k
2.3 索罗模型中的经济增长
索罗模型稳
k sk (n d )k 0
s k* n d
1 1
定状态的解
s y* n d
1
在稳定状态没有增长
– 长期没有增长
在经济体向稳定状态收敛的过程中有增长
短期有增长
ln Y ln K ln L1
两边对时间求导