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9 13德国法院批准欧洲纾困基金German backing for ESM fund lifts stocks

Risk assets enjoyed another positive session after Germany’s highest court gave the go-ahead for Europe’s new bailout fund, removing a significant obstacle to efforts to resolve the region’s debt crisis.

德国最高法院批准欧洲新纾困基金,消除了解决欧债危机道路上的一大障碍,带动风险资产经历又一个价格上

涨的交易日。

But the initial wave of buying that followed the news – which sent European stocks to a 14-month high and the euro to a four-month peak above $1.29 – subsequently showed signs of fizzling out as the grim economic reality facing the region continued to cast a shadow over the markets.

但是,由于欧元区严峻的经济现实继续给市场蒙上阴影,上述消息传出后的最初一波买入潮——将欧洲股市推高至14个月高位,亦将欧元汇率推高至1欧元兑1.29美元的四个月高位——随

后显示消退迹象。

Nevertheless, there was a palpable sense of relief at the decision by Germany’s constitutional court to reject a petition to prevent the country from signing up to the European Stability Mechanism, the region’s permanent financial rescue fund.

然而,对于德国宪法法院驳回有关阻止该国参与欧洲稳定机制(ESM)的请愿的判决,各方明显松了一口气。ESM 是欧元区永久性的金融救助基金。

The court imposed conditions that were less onerous than many had feared. 法院提出的条件不如很多人此前担心的那么苛刻。

The news came less than a week after the European Central Bank triggered a strong risk rally after announcing plans for unlimited purchases of eurozone countries’ short-term bonds – a programme dubbed outright monetary transactions (OMT).

不到一周前,欧洲央行(ECB)曾引发一轮强劲的风险资产涨势。当时该机构宣布相关计划,拟无限度购买欧元区国家的短期债券,该计划称为“直接货

币交易”(OMT)。

“We think this [court ruling] could prove to be a turning point for the debt crisis,”said Frank Øland Hanse n, senior economist at Danske Bank.

“我们认为这(法庭裁决)有望成为欧债危机的转折点,”丹麦丹斯克银行(Danske Bank)高级经济学家弗兰克•厄兰德•汉森(Frank Øland Hansen)表

示。

“The ESM and the ECB’s OMT are seen as a reliable and sufficient safety net. If investors see no need to test the safety net, the ECB may never even have to activate the OMT programme. The ball is now in Spain’s and

Italy’s courts.

“ESM和欧洲央行的OMT被视为可靠且充足的安全网。如果投资者看不到有必要去考验这个安全网,欧洲央行可能永远都不需要启动OMT计划。现在球在西班牙和意大利脚下。

“If they deliver the planned fiscal tightening and structural reforms, the debt crisis could end in a couple of years.”

“如果这两个国家按计划实行了财政收紧和结构改革,欧债危机有望在

两三年内结束。”

But Jonathan Loynes at Capital Economics added a note of caution.

但是,凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的乔纳森•洛尼斯(Jonathan Loynes)发出告诫的声音。

“The ESM and ECB can only address one symptom of the crisis – high borrowing costs – rather than the underlying causes of chronically weak growth and cripplingly high debt,” he said. “Another obstacle has been negotiated, but the path ahead is far

from clear.”

“ESM和欧洲央行只能应对危机的一个症状,即举债成本偏高,而不能解决经济增长持续疲弱和债务沉重的根本原因,”他表示。“如今又一个障碍经谈判消除了,但未来的道路远非畅通。”

A further reason for uncertainty in the markets came from today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting Open Market

Committee.

市场不确定性的另一个来源是,美联储(Fed)负责制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)今日开会。

Kit Juckes, head of foreign exchange at Société Générale, said the market was assuming that the FOMC would agree a further round of quantitative easing with only the

timing in any doubt.

法国兴业银行(Société Générale)外汇策略主管基特•朱克斯(Kit Juckes)表示,市场猜测FOMC将在出台新一轮定量宽松的问题上达成一致,目前唯一不能确定的只是时机。

“For the global risk rally, the temptation is to conclude that, since a move is priced in, we should prepare to ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’– but for a week now, we have ‘bought the news’ with gusto,” he

said.

“全球风险资产涨势让人不由得出这样结论,既然此举已被反映到价格上,我们应当准备好‘在传言时买入,在新闻发布时抛出’,但一周来的情况是,我们在‘新闻发布时’大举买入,”

他表示。

“Fighting the euro/dollar rally and the associated moves higher by the Canadian and Australian dollars, sterling and the Mexican peso – as well as gold – makes no sense. Equity indices will probably play

catch-up.”

“对抗欧元兑美元汇率的上涨,以及加拿大元、澳大利亚元、英镑以及墨西哥比索,还有金价的相应上涨是没有意义的。股指很可能也会赶上。”

Indeed, the euro rose as high as $1.2936, the highest since May, before easing back. The dollar continued to sink ahead of the Fed’s decision, easing per cent against

a basket of currencies.another 0.2

欧元一度涨至1欧元兑1.2936美元,这是5月份以来的最高位,随后稍有回落。美元在美联储作出决定前夕继续下跌,兑一篮子货币进一步走低0.2%。

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