国际经济学II课件2-11

Objectives

What exchange rate policy should a country use? 一国应当采取何种汇率制度? Then we will make deep analysis on the countries’ choices and the general trend toward floating exchange rates. It also takes a look at three paths in the opposite direction, toward fixed exchange rates that are (nearly) permanent. 我们将集中分析目前各国政策选择已经走向浮动汇率 制的总体趋势，对这一趋势分析之后，我们将考察与 之相反的，走向永久性固定汇率制的三条道路
1．Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks --Internal Shocks
Domestic Monetary Shocks 国内货币冲击
A domestic monetary shock is less disruptive with a fixed exchange rate because the intervention to defend the fixed rate tends to reverse the shock and its effects. With a floating exchange rate the resulting change in the exchange rate would actually magnify the domestic effects of the monetary shock. 国内货币冲击在固定汇率制中带来的干扰更小，因为 维护固定汇率的干预会抵消冲击及其效应。在浮动汇 率制中，引致的汇率变化实际上将放大货币冲击的国 内效应。
International Trade Shocks under Fixed Exchange Rate
LM’
FE’ W
V
IS’
90 100

Beginning at point E, the adverse international trade shock shifts the FE and IS curves to the left. At the new IS-LM intersection V, Y and i declines Then, as the country’s overall payments are in deficit, intervention to defend the fixed rate reduces the domestic money supply (LM curve to left) At the new equilibrium point W, real domestic product has declined even more.

1．Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks --ExterBiblioteka Baidual Shocks
International Capital-flow Shocks国际资本流 动冲击 International capital-flow shocks have domestic effects under both fixed and floating exchange rates, but there is a sense in which they are less disruptive under floating exchange rates. 国际资本流动在固定和浮动汇率制中都发挥重 要作用，但在浮动汇率制中这种冲击的干扰性 要小一些。

1．Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks --External Shocks
International Trade Shocks 国际贸易冲击 The effect of international trade shocks is less disruptive with a floating exchange rate. 国际贸易冲击在浮动汇率制下带来的冲击比较小
Advantages of Floating Exchange Rates and the Alternatives
Advantages of Floating Exchange Rates and the Alternatives
Structure of Part I.
1.Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks 宏观经济冲击效应
2.The Effectiveness of Government Policies 政府政策的有效性
3.Differences in Macroeconomic Goals, Priorities and Policies 宏观经济目标、优先次序和政策的多样性 4. Controlling Inflation 控制通货膨胀

Part II.
Lecture 11 National and Global Choices: Floating Rates and the Alternatives 国家与世界的选择：浮动汇率制 与其他汇率制度
Advantages of Floating Exchange Rates and the Alternatives
International Capital-Flow Shocks under Fixed Exchange Rate
LM’ FE’ T

The economy begins at point E. International capital-flow shock causes the FE curve to shift up or to left. Then, the official settlements balance is in deficit at point E If the monetary authority does not sterilize the intervention, LM curve will shift to LM’, with a new triple intersectoin at point T Real domestic product has declined. The country will have a new internal imbalance, in the form of low AD and higher unemployment.

Internal Shocks generally cause less trouble with a fixed rate than with a float. 内部冲击一般在固定汇率制中要比在浮动汇率 制中导致更少的麻烦 Domestic Monetary Shock 国内货币冲击 Domestic Spending Shock 国内支出冲击

1．Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks 宏观经济冲击效应
1.1 Internal Shocks 1.2 External Shocks 1.3 Conclusion
Ranking of Exchange Rate Systems
1．Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks --Internal Shocks
1．Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks --Internal Shocks
Domestic Spending Shock 国内支出冲击 The effects of a domestic spending shock depend on how responsive international flows of financial capital are to interest rate changes. 国际投资支出或消费支出的变化（或财政政策 的变化）取决于国际金融资本流动对利率变化 的反应方式
5. Real Effects of Exchange Rate Variability 汇率波动的实际效应
1．Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks 宏观经济冲击效应

A country would look favorably on an exchange rate policy that reduced the domestic effects of macroeconomic shocks. The performance of the country’s economy is better if shocks are less disruptive because the economy is more stable. The effects of various macroeconomic shocks depend not only on the exchange rate policy but also on the type of shock 各种宏观经济冲击的效应不仅取决于汇率政策，而且 还取决于冲击的类型。
1．Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks --External Shocks

With fixed exchange rates business cycles are transmitted through foreign trade and foreign repercussions, and the intervention to defend the fixed rate can magnify the transmission. 在固定汇率制下，经济周期通过外贸的国外反作用得 到传递，维护固定汇率的干预使这种传递放大。 With floating exchange rates, the transmission is muted because exchange rate changes tend to insulate the economy from foreign trade shocks. 在浮动汇率制下，汇率变化会在本国经济与外贸冲击 之间发挥隔离作用，进而使传递效应弱化。
1．Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks --External Shocks

Changes in foreign trade are a major way in which business cycles are transmitted from one country to another. 外贸冲击是经济周期从一国传递到另一国 的主要方式。
International Trade Shocks under Floating Exchange Rate

FE’

T5
IS’
The shock causes the FE and IS curves to shift to the left, the intersection of IS’ with LM at T5 is below the new FE’. The country’s currency depreciates, resulting in shifts back to the right in the FE and IS curves. If nothing else changes, then the curves shift back to their original positions, and the new triple intersection is back to E0
1．Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks --Internal Shocks

If capital is not responsive, then domestic spending shocks are also less disruptive with fixed rates than with floating rates. 如果资本流动对利率不敏感，国内支出冲击在固定汇 率制中的干扰就会小于在浮动汇率制中的情况 If capital is highly responsive, then domestic spending shocks are more disruptive with fixed rates. 如果资本流动对利率高度敏感，国内支出冲击会在固 定汇率制中具有更大的干扰性。