财务管理 (2)

Chapter 4Financial Planning and ForecastingDefinitions about budgeting and percent of sales method→to predict the future assets/liabilities according to the relationship between the present sales revenue and assets/liabilities . →DFN (Discretionary financing needs) / AFN (Additional funds needed).1.Budget (put things in Perspective) is a quantitative expression of a plan of action that helpsmanagers coordinate and implement the plan .(1)comprehensive budget (全面预算体系) : a set of financial statement and other schedulesshowing the expected results for a future period .(2)the comprehensive budget is a tool to make planning efficient and also provides a meansfor monitoring whether activities are going according to plan .It should include : (1)financial budgets: ☺pro forma balance sheet ;☺cash budget;☺pro forma income statement.(2)operating budgets:☺production schedules;☺purchasingschedules;☺fixed asset acquisition (capital budgeting) .2. Organization of budget :(1)continuous budget(延续或滚动预算) :☺a budget for a month (or a quarter) will be added as one of these periods goes by . Thus there would be a 12 month budget at all times .☺by preparing continuous budgets ,managers are then kept aware of the needs for the next 12 months ,regardless of the time of the year .(2)static budget(静态预算)(prepared for only on level of volume which is the organization’s goal):☺the static budget is not altered after it is drawn up ,regardless of changes in volume ,sale prices ,or costs .☺the focus of the static budget is future planning .(3)flexible budget(弹性预算)(a set of budgets covering a range of volume rather than a single volume level . It is also called a variance budget):☺the flexible budget shows how revenues and costs vary with volume throughout the budget range ;☺the focus of the flexible budget is evaluating past performance .3.After-tax cash flow =Earnings after taxes + depreciation expense + deferred taxes4.Percent of sales method :permits a company to forecast the amount of financing it will need for a given increase in sales .(1)***/current sales=***%(2)projected sales×***%=$$$(3)projected sales×(net income/sales) ×[1-(cash dividends/net income)]=&&&(4)discretionary financing needed= projected total assets –projected total liabilities –projected owner’s equity5.DFN (Discretionary financing needs): funds that a firm must raise externally through borrowing or by selling new common or preferred stock.EFN(External financing needs): All the firm’s needs for financing beyond the funds provided internally through the retention of earnings ,thus EFN = Predicted change in total assets –predicted change in retained earnings .Chapter 5The Time Value of MoneyFV n= PV0 (1+i)n= PV0 FVIF i,nCompounded interest→PV0= FV n [1/(1+i)n]= FV n PVIF i.nFVA n =PMT×FVIFA i,nOrdinary annuityPV = PMT×PVIFA i,nAnnuities due = Annuities×(1+i)AnnuitiesDelayed annuity(uneven cash flow streams):先把不均衡的年金加成均等，用普通年金方法算完后，减去多加（加上多减）的钱数的现值。

PV=R/I →perpetuityPerpetuity and Growing perpetuityPV=R/i-g→Growing perpetuity ,growth rate=gChapter 6Analysis of Risk and ReturnThe risk and return of one certain asset→. . . of two assets→. . .of n assets→. . .of a risk-free asset and n risky assets→the relationship between a risky asset and n risky assets→how to decide the price of a risky asset1.concepts : (1)holding period return→R=[D t + (P t - P t-1)]/P t-1↓↓↓Dividend ending beginningprice price(2)expected return :r=E(r) 多个资产时加权平均(3)σ=标准差=standard deviation σAB=Cov(R A,R B)=E[(R At-E(R A))(R Bt-E(R B))]σp2=X A2σA2 + X B2σB2 + 2(X AσA)(X BσB)ρAB p=portfolio(4)z=[r-E(r)]/ σ即标准化成标准正态分布，z是横轴上的值(5)v=σ/E(r) 变异系数用于比较两种不同规模的投资的风险的时候(6)ρ相关系数ρAB=Corr ( R A,R B)= σAB/σAσB(7)required return=risk-free return +risk premium=real rate of return + expected inflation premium2.the risk and return of two assets (graph)3.The risk and return of n assets & a risk-free asset and n risky assets (graph)efficient frontiercapital market line (CML)optimal risky portfolio (CML与efficient frontier的切点)4.the relationship between a risky asset and n risky assets(1)βj=Covariance j,m / variance m=ρjmσjσm/σm2(2)variance and standard deviation in a portfolio of many assets : the variance of theindividual assets completely vanish as the number of assets becomes large. However, the covariance terms remain. σp2=σ* (σ*=all covariances in the table)(3)characteristic line: y=ax+b a=β5.how to decide the price of a risky assetCapital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) : R i = R F +βI (R M– R F)Expected return on a security = risk-free rate + beta of the security ×market risk premium Major problems of CAPM : 1. Estimating expected future market returns2.Determiningan appropriate r f3.Determining the best estimate of β4.Investors don’ totally ignore unsystematic risk5.Betas are frequently unstable over time6.Required returns are determined by macroeconomic factors 6.名词解释：1) CML: capital market line (graph)2)SML (security market line): the relationship between systematic risk and required rates of return for individual securities .(graph)3)CAPM (Capital assets pricing model)4)CL (Characteristic line) (graph)Chapter 7 & 8Valuation of SecuritiesDefinitions of value→characteristics of bonds preferred stock and common stock→bond valuation1.Definitions of value: liquidation value VS going-concern value(清算价值与持续经营价值)Book value VS market value(账面价值与市场价值)☺book value = accounting/historic value☺market value = normally related to expected future cash flow*market value does not necessarily bear any relationship tobook value*market value may be either greater or less than book valueIntrinsic value / economic value VS Market value(内在价值/经济价值与市场价值)2.Bonds: 1) Different kinds of bonds ☺pure discount bond(无息债券)☺level-coupon bonds(普通债券)☺consols ( perpetual bonds)(永续债券)2) Features of bonds ☺indenture(合同约束)☺call feature and bond refunding(赎回条款)☺sinking fund(偿债基金条款)☺convertible(可转换性)☺warrant(认股权证)☺bond ratings(债券信用评级)Preferred stoc k: features of preferred stock ☺selling price and par value(面值与销售价格)☺adjustable rates(可调整收益率)☺cumulative dividends(可累积)现在没钱，以后会补齐。