净现值和投资决策的其它方法.pptx

•计算：
• 一般可以根据累计净现金流量计算而得。
PT
(CI CO) 0 t t 1
6.2 回收期法
• 举例
Calculating Payback
• Here are the projected cash flows from a proposed investment:
• The project costs $500. What is the payback period for the investment?
年份
A
0
-100
1
20
2
30
3
50
4
60
回收期（年数） 3
B
-100 50
30 20 60
3
C
-100 50
30 20 60 000
3
Example with negative cash flows
• Doesn’t guarantee a single answer • A rapid payback doesn’t guarantee a good
• Your required return for assets of this risk level is 12%.
Computing Payback for the Project
• Assume we will accept the project if it pays back within two years.
• Cash costs (including taxes) will be $14,000 per year.
• The plant, property, and equipment (PPE) will be worth $2,000 as salvage at the end.
• The business needs $30,000 to launch. • Discount rate is 15% on new projects such as this
Example
• You are reviewing a new project and have estimated the following cash flows:
• Year 0: CF = -165,000 • Year 1: CF = 63,120; • Year 2: CF = 70,800; • Year 3: CF = 91,080;
one. • Is this a good investment? • If there are 1,000 shares of stock outstanding,
what will be the effect on the price per share of
Project Example Information
• 如果项目存在风险，可以找一个存在类似风险的股票，把该 股票的期望收益率作为项目的贴现率。
• 3. 估计初始成本
Example
• A company want to start a business of organic rtilizer for 8 years.
• It estimates the cash revenues will be $20,000 per year.
• Your required return for assets of this risk level is 12%.
9-7
Computing NPV for the Project
• Using the formulas:
• NPV = -165,000 + 63,120/(1.12) + 70,800/(1.12)2 + 91,080/(1.12)3 = 12,627.41
0
1
2
3
4
178.57 318.88 427.07 508.41 1,432.93
200
400
600
800
净现值 (NPV)法则
• 净现值法则：接受净现值大于0的项目，拒绝净 现值为负的项目。 • NPV =未来全部现金流的现值 – 初始投资 • 计算NPV:
• 1. 估计未来的现金流量: 多少? 什么时候? • 2. 估计折现率
第6章 净现值和投资决策的其它方 法
目录
6.1 为什么要使用净现值？ 6.2 回收期法 6.3 折现回收期法 6.4 内部收益率法 6.5 内部收益率法存在的问题 6.6 盈利指数 6.7 资本预算实务
本章小结
6.1 为什么要使用净现值？
• 净现值法（NPV）是资本预算和评价项目投资的最基本的方法 • 净现值 = 现值 - 成本 • 接受净现值为正的投资项目符合股东利益。
• Year 1: 165,000 – 63,120 = 101,880 still to recover
• Year 2: 101,880 – 70,800 = 31,080 still to recover
• Year 3: we need another 31,080/91,080 = 0.34 year to recover the rest.
• You are reviewing a new project and have estimated the following cash flows:
• Year 0: CF = -165,000 • Year 1: CF = 63,120; • Year 2: CF = 70,800; • Year 3: CF = 91,080;
• Do we accept or reject the project?
9-8
净现值 (NPV)法则
• 净现值法的三个特点:
• 1.净现值法使用了现金流量 • 2.净现值法包含了项目的全部现金流量 • 3.净现值对现金流量进行了合理的折现（考虑了风险）
6.2 回收期法
•定义：
• 项目要花多少时间才能收回其原始投资? • 回收期 = 收回原始投资需要的年数
• the project pays back in 2.34 years
• Do we accept or reject the project?
9-14
回收期法存在的问题
• 问题1：回收期内现金流量的时间序列 • 问题2：关于回收期以后的现金流量 • 问题3：回收期法决策依据的主观臆断
表5－1 项目A、B、C的预期现金流量（单位：美元 ）