拉动经济的三大马车

22. 我们常比喻说，这几年中国的经济增长主要依靠三驾马车：投资、出口、消费。

先来看出口。随着我国加入世界贸易组织，出口量和进口量之间的差距正在逐渐缩小，甚至在今年上半年曾首次出现过短暂的贸易逆差，而据有关专家估计，今年的贸易顺差也只有100亿元左右，到了2005年，随着入世承诺的逐步兑现，贸易顺差可能会更小。显然，净出口将不会再是经济增长的主动力。

再来看投资。在近几年的投资中，由于一直实施的是积极的财政政策，发行了大量的国债，政府投资一直起着主导作用。据有关媒体报道，2005年实施稳健财政政策后，发行的国债将会比今年减少300亿元。直接减少的国债投资是300亿元，但由于国债投资都有很强的带动效应，由这减少的300亿元国债连带而减少的其他相关的银行投资、民间投资数量也不可小视。虽然有统计局官员称，民间投资已有启动迹象，但是启动了的民间投资能不能持续下去，民间投资是否是在地方政府的催生下发出的，是不是一种自发的力量，还是一个未知的变数。

最后看消费。刺激消费一直是个老大难问题，我国目前的消费率已经下滑到了25年来的最低点55.4％。看来，如何刺激消费已成为我国政府所面临的重大挑战之一。

We often say that over the past few years China's economic growth rely mainly on the troika: investment, exports, consumption.

First, let’s look at the export. With our country joining the WTO, the difference between the volumes of export and import is gradually narrowing, it even occurred a first temporary trade deficit in the first half of this year. According to the prediction of related experts, this year the trade surplus is only 10 billion RMB. At the year of 2005, the trade surplus will be much smaller as the result of WTO accession. Apparently, net export will no longer be the main driving power of economic growth.

Than the investment, in recent years,, the implement of proactive fiscal policy and great amount of bond issued made

government investment played a leading role in investment area. Some related medium reported that in the year of 2005, after the implement of prudent fiscal policy, the bond issued will be 30 billion RMB less than this year. The direct elimination of bond is 30 billion RMB; however the decrease of related bank investment and private investment can not be ignored for the strong driving effect that bond has. Even though some officials of the Census Bureau declared that private investment has been started, it is still an unknown variable that weather the launched private investment can continue or not, and if it appeared under the inspire of local government or it is a spontaneous power.

The last is consumption. Consuming stimulation has always been a major problem. The consumption rate of our country has dropped to 55.4%, the lowest point in 25 years. It has become one of the great challenges that our government faced.