社会系统仿真PPT课件

ships to/from harbors/piers, elevators
» Retail/Service :stores selling goods, service/repair
shops, logistics/inventory/distribution/MRP
Manufacturing Systems:
» Macroeconomic: taxation/interest rate cost/benefits
» Pollution: environmental intervention cost/benefits
» Project Management: completion time vs resources
on the knowledge gained
When there is incomplete information about the
system (can handle imprecise but not missing
pieces)
» Need at least inputs and related outputs for “black boxes”
system
2020/12/29
MPJ/UNM CS452/Mgt 532 I. Introduction
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Definitions (cont.)
Model: representation of a system – three phases:
1. Verbal – always included in any representation 2. Graphical – see pages 22, 39, 50, 54, 367, and 536 3. Algorithm and/or computer program
» Mental capability: attention, memory, processing, …
Analysis: allows us to study systems too complex for analytic description and/or too dangerous for human safety – gain knowledge
2020/12/29
MPJ/UNM CS452/Mgt 532 I. Introduction
2e Systems:
» Traffic on Networks: messages to/from computers,
cars on roads/rails, airplanes to/from airports/gates,
» train operators on a model of an existing systems
System: purposeful, interrelated components with interdependencies and complexity Behavior: purposeful, interrelated sequences of activities Dynamic: time varying (static systems are dull!)
2020/12/29
MPJ/UNM CS452/Mgt 532 I. Introduction
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When not to Simulate!
When theory can determine sufficient results
When it will cost more to simulate than the return
2020/12/29
MPJ/UNM CS452/Mgt 532 I. Introduction
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Why Simulate?
To overcome human limitations in
» Physical capability: avoid injury and death; be able to control systems whose dynamics are not yet known, …
» Can assume missing information and check against known results – if agreement, support for assumptions
When it is not possible to develop a
representative, tractable simplification of the
I. Introduction
M. Peter Jurkat CS452/Mgt532 Simulation for Managerial Decisions The Robert O. Anderson Schools of Management
University of New Mexico
2020/12/29
MPJ/UNM CS452/Mgt 532 I. Introduction
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Definitions
Simulation:
» process of experimenting with a model of a dynamic systems (e.g., process) to
– study or test the behavior of the system – improve, problem solve – design and/or select new systems , and/or
» Materials, Chemicals, Biologicals
» Appliances, Automobiles/Trucks, Toys, Clothing
» Electronics, Weapons Systems
Computations using models from other disciplines
Design: attempt changes in IVs to drive one or more DVs toward an “optimal” value or combination of values for design, improvement,
and/or problem solving