America’s Next President Must Embrace(拥抱) the Brics(金砖四国,巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国)

America’s Next President Must Embrace（拥抱）the Brics（金砖四国，

巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国）

美国下任总统须重视金砖四国

Whoever moves into the Oval Office（白宫椭圆形办公室）in January 2009 will have to deal with a significantly different global economy from the one George W. Bush inherited（遗传的，通过继承得到的）just eight years earlier – and will need to forge a very different set of policies to address it. The most dramatic changes are that the emerging（新兴的）economies – most notably Brazil, Russia, India and China (the Brics) and the leading oil exporters –now play a far greater role in the world economy than they did then, and that the US is now a great deal more dependent on their financial decisions, economic policies, capital and markets.

明年1月，无论是谁入主白宫，都将面对与8年前乔治•布什(George W. Bush)上台时截然不同的全球经济形势——也将需要制定一套截然不同的应对政策。最显著的变化是新兴经济体——尤其是巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国（即―金砖四国‖）以及主要的石油出口国——如今在世界经济中发挥着比那时大得多的作用，美国对新兴经济体金融决策、经济政策、资本和市场的依赖也大为提高。

Since 2001, the US share of world gross domestic（国内的）product has fallen from 34 percent to 28 percent; the Brics' has risen from 8 percent to 16 percent. China's reserves have rocketed from $200bn (€127bn, £101bn) to $1,800bn, Brazil's from $35bn to $200bn, Russia's from $35bn to $500bn and India's from $50bn to $300bn. Because of America's very low savings rate, US consumers, companies, financial institutions（制度，建立）and the federal government must borrow heavily from these countries.

从2001年至今，美国在全球国内生产总值(GDP)中所占的比重已从34%下降到28%，金砖四国的比重则从8%上升到16%。中国的外汇储备从2000亿美元猛增至1.8万亿美元；巴西的外汇储备从350亿美元增至2000亿美元；俄罗斯从350亿美元增至5000亿美元；印度从500亿美元增至3000亿美元。由于美国储蓄率极低，美国的消费者、企业、金融机构和联邦政府均必须向这些国家大举

借债。

The incoming US administration will need to make significant changes in domestic policy and adopt a more collaborative approach to the global economy to take advantage of new opportunities and meet new challenges.

美国下届政府必须在国内政策上作出重大转变，对全球经济采取更合作的态度，以抓住新机遇，迎接新挑战。

First, America's political leaders must recognise that unless recent improvements in the country's trade balance can be sustained and accelerated, and domestic savings rise sharply, the US will remain heavily dependent on foreign capital in the form of purchases of government or corporate bonds, stocks and direct investment. US policymakers will need to find ways to increase domestic savings, shrink the federal deficit（赤字，不足额）, reduce the heavy reliance（信心，信赖）of American consumers on credit and curb oil imports. Without these measures, massive amounts of foreign capital will be needed for years to come.

首先，美国的政治领导人必须承认，除非近期美国贸易余额改善的势头能够得以维系并加速，国内储蓄大幅增加，否则美国将继续严重依赖于以购买政府或企业债券、股票和直接投资等形式进入的外国资本。美国的政策制定者必须设法增加国内储蓄，缩小联邦赤字，降低美国消费者对信贷的高度倚赖，约束石油进口。如果不采取这些措施，美国在未来的许多年内都将需要大量的外国资本。

In such circumstances（环境，情况）, the US must remain attractive to foreign capital. Sound finances, enabling（授权的）the US to borrow on reasonable terms, will remain an important factor in national strength. Frequent financial crises, large trade imbalances, a series of outsized（特大的，特大号的）budget deficits and failure to put social security and Medicare（美国，国家老年人医疗保险制度）on a more sound financial footing could undermine（不民主的）investor confidence. That would discourage overseas（海外的，国外的）investments and the willingness of central banks to hold dollar reserves, causing a plunge in US financial markets and the dollar, thereby（从此，因而）jeopardising（危及，使...受危险）America's growth.

在这种形势下，美国必须保持对外国资本的吸引力。健全的金融体系，是美