台风预报系统

Time difference:
18~36h Minimum distance: about 200km
In these exceptional cases, it needs us to mend it by handwork.
Series number in the real-time track database:
•
2.3 Real Track Display
TFOS includes 5 main functions. The first is real-time track display. The display is on the base of real track database, where the series number and CMA number of every TC is authorized. When the strength of one TC reaches TS, CMA will give it a CMA number. But before then, how to identify one TD?
When every thing is ok, you can click the “ok” button to see the encoded text files. “CreateFax” function creates a fax picture file and “SendFax” sends it to CMA database for dissemination.
A sample of history analogue searches. In the middle summer, most part of the stronger TCs which go by the way of near the Luzon Island and north of the Taiwan Island pushed forward NNE and affected the Korea Peninsula, though their strength got rather weaker then.
Main framework:
Interface
View Control
Graphic layer control
Interactive system
Graphic system
Cont ours Plots
Images
Geographic display Sat.
….
fax
….
TlgP
DataSet/database Algorithms , labels , etc
•
2.2 Data Sources
• One of this component data source is the realtime TC warning message files from other typhoon forecast centers. The component can update the typhoon track database by searching the usable data from the message files timely. The real track of TC displaying and the forecast making are all based on the database. The second data source is the history annual track data complied by Shanghai Typhoon Institute and it can be used to search analogical history tracks.
1.2 MICAPS Framework Features 1.3 Micaps Main Functions
Outlines:
• 2. Typhoon Forecast Operational System
• • • • • • •
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Motivation of the component Data Sources Real Track Display History Searches Forecast Error Statistics Interactive Forecast Making Strike Probability
台风预报操作系统
Typhoon Forecast Operational System
中国气象局 China Meteorological Administration May 12, 2009
Outlines:
• 1. MICAPS3.1
• •
•
1.1 MICAPS brief introduction
prepare and issue forecasts.
Main interface:
Title bar Menu Tool bar
TyphoonTool box
Layer window
Display area
Property window
Display set window
2. Typhoon Forecast Operational System (TFOS):
• Allows forecasters the interactive capability to
view, analyze, combine, and manipulate graphical and alphanumeric weathቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱr data.
• Provides effective means for forecasters to
Typhoon component
2.1 Motivation of the component
• The purpose of this component is to adequately
make use of the Micaps multiple functions and provide typhoon-forecasters with a complete operational work platform. It can get the real and forecast data from other typhoon forecast centers timely and display it in favorable and convenient ways. This system is developed in program language C#.NET and use SQL database
Minimum Distance (km) 1000 800 600 400 200 0
0
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
10 8
Time difference (hour)
Among 1980～2007 years
12 0
Exceptional cases in 28 years: 8225、8226 9004、9005
Chinese forecasters used in almost all local weather centers
1.2 MICAPS 3.1 Framework Features
• Open software architecture • The functional Module is optional • Special version for special usage
Centers and Methods:
• • • • • • • • • • • •
BABJ: Beijing China Subjective VHHH: Hongkong China Subjective PGTW: America Subjective RJTD: Japan Subjective RKSL: Korea Subjective TMBJ: Beijing Objective JTYM: Japan Typhoon Model JGSM: Japan Other Model BCGZ: Guangzhou China Subjective BCSH: Shanghai China Subjective SHOS: Shanghai China Objective EGRR: UK Objective
TCs Identification:
• Within 0h~36h, if the distance between a new TC
record’s position and any former record’s position less than the corresponding minimum distance, we consider they are the same one TC and they share a same series number. Otherwise, it’s a new TC and gets a new series number.
Vector tools Symbols
I/O System
File DB LOG
Projections
1.3 Micaps3.1 Main Functions
• An interactive computer system that integrates
all meteorological, satellite, and radar data into one computer workstation.
1.1 MICAPS brief introduction
• Full name:
Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis And Process System
• Platform: PC-Windows , Linux/Unix
• The standard graphics workbench of
2.4 History Searches
The left part controls the date and regions of the wanted history tracks. The above scroll bars set the start-end of years. System uses the track and strength database compiled by Shanghai Typhoon Institute, spanning from 1949 to present. The middle two set the TC’s birth date ranges, so as to identify the seasonal background.
2.5 Forecast Error Statistics
Select menu item “Typhoon->FcstErr” to display the forecast errors of different centers and motheds, compared to their own observational values. Click the “Formstatistics” panel or keep the checkbox “AutoOpenRecord” checked to get the detail in numbers.
2.6 Interactive Forecast Making
System let you move the mouse to “find” the wanted TC , appoint the current position and select the forecast times. Then use the mouse to modify (drag) the positions of every forecast time. At last, enter the TC forecast issue and release window.