Climate Change 2013
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West Africa
Risk Management/ Adaptation improved water management sustainable farming practice
drought-resistant crops
drought forecasting
Projected: low confidence in drought projections for West Africa
July 30, 2001, Chicago Sun Times
Special Report on Extreme Events, IPCC, 2012
changes in climate extremes vary across regions each region has unique vulnerabilities and exposure to hazards effective risk management and adaptation address the factors contributing to exposure and vulnerability
城市化
黎伟标 等
廖镜彪 等
珠三角
广州
珠三角城市群雨岛效应 下风向50km降水中心
广 东 城 市 化 进 程
图1-2广东省城镇建成区范围 Fig.1-2 Built-up (cities and towns) area of Guangdong Province
广东近50年降雨变化特征
降雨量 空间分布 线性趋势 年代格局
Maldives
shore erosion
saltwater intrusion coastal populations tourism economies
Projected globally: very likely contribution of sea level rise to extreme coastal high water levels (such as storm surges)
Observed Precipitation
Global
T ↑， P↑
Guangdong
Sum. Atm. P ↑
Win. Spr. P ↓
(Sub)tropical
Extreme P ↑
PRD & Guangzhou
Urban rain island Extreme P ↑
China
Southern waterlogging Northern drought
广州：水浸街
Drought in the context of food security in West Africa
Risk Factors more variable rain population growth ecosystem degradation poor health and education systems
August 14, 2010, Associated Press
TOURISM
“Alpine resorts feel heat during record warm spell”
December 08, 2006, CNN World News
TRANSPORTATION
“Flash flooding causes train to derail”
population growth increasing property value
higher storm surge with sea level rise
Hurricane Katrina, 2005
Projected globally: likely increase in average maximum wind speed and associated heavy rainfall (although not in all regions)
Sea level rise in tropical Small Island Developing States
Risk Factors Risk Management/ Adaptation early warning systems maintenance of drainage regional risk pooling relocation
T
W
T
R R
Special Report: managing risks of on EXtreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation , IPCC, 2012 https://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/IPCC_SREX_slide_deck.pdf
Q1. Global Change 2013
IPCC AR5 WG1 SPM 2013
IPCC AR5 WG1 SPM 2013
Precipitation Change From global to regional
IPCC AR5 WG1 Final draft 30th Sep 2013
Climate Change results in much more beyond sea level rise……
AGRICULTURE
“Mongolian herdsmen face starvation”
March 14, 2000, BBC World News
ENERGY
“Heatwave hits French power production”
降 雨 量 分 布
每日降雨量
北江流域
西江流域
东江流域
珠三角流域
珠江流域
平均值
4.7
4.1
5.0
5.2
-0.04
最大值（站） 5.9（佛岗） 4.5（高要） 5.3（东源） 5.4（台山） 5.9（佛岗） 最小值（站） 4.1（南雄） 3.7（罗定） 4.8（惠阳） 4.8（广州） 3.7（罗定）
图2-1 1961 ~ 2010年广东省平均每日降雨量分布 Fig. 2-1 Mean precipitation of each day of Guangdong from 1961 to 2010
降 雨 量 趋 势
图2-2 1961 ~ 2010年广东省降雨量变化线性趋势（单位：mm/a） Fig. 2-2 Linear trend of precipitation in the Guangdong province from 1961 to 2010 (unit: mm/a)
降 雨 量 趋 势
降雨等级 空间分布 线性趋势
降雨负荷 空间分布 线性趋势
降雨分析 降雨量的 EOF分析 降雨等级 RIDIT分析
研究数据及方法介绍
1、数据来源
中国气象科学数据共享 服务网 地面气候资料日值数据 集、月值数据集和年值 数据集 2、处理工具 数据处理使用 MATLAB 3、统计方法 线性趋势及显著检 验
weak building construction settlements built near rivers and blocked drainage areas
Kenya, East Africa
early warning systems
Projected: likely increase in heavy precipitation in East Africa
Floods in Nairobi, Kenya
Risk Factors Risk Management/ Adaptation reduce poverty strengthen buildings improve drainage and sewage
rapid growth of informal settlements
场图使用MeteoInfo EOF Ridit 插值方法 IDW_Radius 城市化对降雨的贡 献
无效值剔除
观 测 气 象 站 点 分 布
表2-1 珠江流域各子流域每日降雨量（单位：mm） Table 2-1 Daily precipitation of subbasins of the Pearl River（unit：mm）
GZ Downwind 50km
Q2. Guangdong Precipitation
广东观测降水研究
研究内容 研究者 陈峪 等；虞海燕 等 基本状态 肖伟军 等；余功梅 李江南 等；汤海燕；罗伟华 等 极端降水 伍红雨 等；陆虹 等 彭俊台 等 研究区域 中国（分区） 华南地区 华南地区 广东省 华南地区 珠江流域 雨日下降，雨强上升 极端降水频率强度增大 广东降水上升 降水周期变化 降水量集中在汛期 主要结论
海 南 ： 超 强 台 风
Scientific Questions
Q1. Global Change 2013 (IPCC) Q2. Guangdong Precipitation (CMA) Q3. Climate Drivers ? Q4. Future Climate Modeling
1.33 -0.04 2.33 -1.38 0.42
北江流域
0.19 -0.59 1.53 -1.42 0.67
西江流域
-0.51 0.51 -0.03 -1.33 0.34
东江流域
1.20 -0.81 2.90 -1.29 0.39
珠三角流域
3.78 0.93 4.09* -1.41 0.17
表2-2 1961 ~ 2010年珠江流域降雨量变化线性趋势（单位：mm/a） Table 2-2 Linear trend of precipitation in the Pearl river basins from 1961 to 2010 (unit: mm/a)
时段 全年 春季 夏季
珠江流域
Hurricanes in the USA and Caribbean
Risk Factors Risk Management/ Adaptation better forecasting warning systems stricter building codes regional risk pooling
Heat waves in Europe
Risk Factors lack of access to cooling age Risk Management/ Adaptation cooling in public facilities warning systems
Biblioteka Baidu
pre-existing health problems poverty and isolation
Climate Change 2013:
From global to regional
——by classmate w.y. 20131206
Public Concerns
Articles of “Climate Change” in the British Press
AR4 IPCC 2007
infrastructure
France, August 2003 (over 14,000 dead)
social care networks
urban green space changes in urban infrastructure
Projected: likely increase in heat wave frequency and very likely increase in warm days and nights across Europe
August 12, 2003, The Guardian
WATER
“Drought returns to haunt Ethiopia”’
May 19, 2008, Reuters
PUBLIC HEALTH
“Cholera confirmed in Pakistan flood disaster”
Risk Management/ Adaptation improved water management sustainable farming practice
drought-resistant crops
drought forecasting
Projected: low confidence in drought projections for West Africa
July 30, 2001, Chicago Sun Times
Special Report on Extreme Events, IPCC, 2012
changes in climate extremes vary across regions each region has unique vulnerabilities and exposure to hazards effective risk management and adaptation address the factors contributing to exposure and vulnerability
城市化
黎伟标 等
廖镜彪 等
珠三角
广州
珠三角城市群雨岛效应 下风向50km降水中心
广 东 城 市 化 进 程
图1-2广东省城镇建成区范围 Fig.1-2 Built-up (cities and towns) area of Guangdong Province
广东近50年降雨变化特征
降雨量 空间分布 线性趋势 年代格局
Maldives
shore erosion
saltwater intrusion coastal populations tourism economies
Projected globally: very likely contribution of sea level rise to extreme coastal high water levels (such as storm surges)
Observed Precipitation
Global
T ↑， P↑
Guangdong
Sum. Atm. P ↑
Win. Spr. P ↓
(Sub)tropical
Extreme P ↑
PRD & Guangzhou
Urban rain island Extreme P ↑
China
Southern waterlogging Northern drought
广州：水浸街
Drought in the context of food security in West Africa
Risk Factors more variable rain population growth ecosystem degradation poor health and education systems
August 14, 2010, Associated Press
TOURISM
“Alpine resorts feel heat during record warm spell”
December 08, 2006, CNN World News
TRANSPORTATION
“Flash flooding causes train to derail”
population growth increasing property value
higher storm surge with sea level rise
Hurricane Katrina, 2005
Projected globally: likely increase in average maximum wind speed and associated heavy rainfall (although not in all regions)
Sea level rise in tropical Small Island Developing States
Risk Factors Risk Management/ Adaptation early warning systems maintenance of drainage regional risk pooling relocation
T
W
T
R R
Special Report: managing risks of on EXtreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation , IPCC, 2012 https://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/IPCC_SREX_slide_deck.pdf
Q1. Global Change 2013
IPCC AR5 WG1 SPM 2013
IPCC AR5 WG1 SPM 2013
Precipitation Change From global to regional
IPCC AR5 WG1 Final draft 30th Sep 2013
Climate Change results in much more beyond sea level rise……
AGRICULTURE
“Mongolian herdsmen face starvation”
March 14, 2000, BBC World News
ENERGY
“Heatwave hits French power production”
降 雨 量 分 布
每日降雨量
北江流域
西江流域
东江流域
珠三角流域
珠江流域
平均值
4.7
4.1
5.0
5.2
-0.04
最大值（站） 5.9（佛岗） 4.5（高要） 5.3（东源） 5.4（台山） 5.9（佛岗） 最小值（站） 4.1（南雄） 3.7（罗定） 4.8（惠阳） 4.8（广州） 3.7（罗定）
图2-1 1961 ~ 2010年广东省平均每日降雨量分布 Fig. 2-1 Mean precipitation of each day of Guangdong from 1961 to 2010
降 雨 量 趋 势
图2-2 1961 ~ 2010年广东省降雨量变化线性趋势（单位：mm/a） Fig. 2-2 Linear trend of precipitation in the Guangdong province from 1961 to 2010 (unit: mm/a)
降 雨 量 趋 势
降雨等级 空间分布 线性趋势
降雨负荷 空间分布 线性趋势
降雨分析 降雨量的 EOF分析 降雨等级 RIDIT分析
研究数据及方法介绍
1、数据来源
中国气象科学数据共享 服务网 地面气候资料日值数据 集、月值数据集和年值 数据集 2、处理工具 数据处理使用 MATLAB 3、统计方法 线性趋势及显著检 验
weak building construction settlements built near rivers and blocked drainage areas
Kenya, East Africa
early warning systems
Projected: likely increase in heavy precipitation in East Africa
Floods in Nairobi, Kenya
Risk Factors Risk Management/ Adaptation reduce poverty strengthen buildings improve drainage and sewage
rapid growth of informal settlements
场图使用MeteoInfo EOF Ridit 插值方法 IDW_Radius 城市化对降雨的贡 献
无效值剔除
观 测 气 象 站 点 分 布
表2-1 珠江流域各子流域每日降雨量（单位：mm） Table 2-1 Daily precipitation of subbasins of the Pearl River（unit：mm）
GZ Downwind 50km
Q2. Guangdong Precipitation
广东观测降水研究
研究内容 研究者 陈峪 等；虞海燕 等 基本状态 肖伟军 等；余功梅 李江南 等；汤海燕；罗伟华 等 极端降水 伍红雨 等；陆虹 等 彭俊台 等 研究区域 中国（分区） 华南地区 华南地区 广东省 华南地区 珠江流域 雨日下降，雨强上升 极端降水频率强度增大 广东降水上升 降水周期变化 降水量集中在汛期 主要结论
海 南 ： 超 强 台 风
Scientific Questions
Q1. Global Change 2013 (IPCC) Q2. Guangdong Precipitation (CMA) Q3. Climate Drivers ? Q4. Future Climate Modeling
1.33 -0.04 2.33 -1.38 0.42
北江流域
0.19 -0.59 1.53 -1.42 0.67
西江流域
-0.51 0.51 -0.03 -1.33 0.34
东江流域
1.20 -0.81 2.90 -1.29 0.39
珠三角流域
3.78 0.93 4.09* -1.41 0.17
表2-2 1961 ~ 2010年珠江流域降雨量变化线性趋势（单位：mm/a） Table 2-2 Linear trend of precipitation in the Pearl river basins from 1961 to 2010 (unit: mm/a)
时段 全年 春季 夏季
珠江流域
Hurricanes in the USA and Caribbean
Risk Factors Risk Management/ Adaptation better forecasting warning systems stricter building codes regional risk pooling
Heat waves in Europe
Risk Factors lack of access to cooling age Risk Management/ Adaptation cooling in public facilities warning systems
Biblioteka Baidu
pre-existing health problems poverty and isolation
Climate Change 2013:
From global to regional
——by classmate w.y. 20131206
Public Concerns
Articles of “Climate Change” in the British Press
AR4 IPCC 2007
infrastructure
France, August 2003 (over 14,000 dead)
social care networks
urban green space changes in urban infrastructure
Projected: likely increase in heat wave frequency and very likely increase in warm days and nights across Europe
August 12, 2003, The Guardian
WATER
“Drought returns to haunt Ethiopia”’
May 19, 2008, Reuters
PUBLIC HEALTH
“Cholera confirmed in Pakistan flood disaster”