1月上海写字楼市场近期报告和展望

6.Urban Development International Plaza 7.Shanghai Times Square
5. GC Tower
16.Poly Plaza
Changning Jing’an
Xuhui
Huangpu
Luwan
Lujiazui
Zhuyuan & Century Park
￥88.2.6# 2(249)
6.0
6(18￥3)5.9 #
7.1
5(2￥167).2#
(243￥4)7.7
￥77.4.8#
(225)
Xuhui 396,918 sq m FMCG tenants
Unit: RMB/sq m/day (Unit: RMB/sq m/ month)
* Comprise Premium Grade and Grade A offices
Total Stock 3,473,873 sq m
CBD Grade A Office* Stock and Rent by Q4 09
Jing’an 531,454 sq m Service Industry tenants
4 Huangpu 272,918 sq m
Service/ Trade/ Financial Institution tenants
Fall in rent apparently stabilised
Shanghai CBD Grade A office market trend
16% 14% 12% 10%
8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
Vacancy Rate
Rental
RMB/sq m/day 12
10
8
6
4
2
0 Q2/05 Q4/05 Q2/06 Q4/06 Q2/07 Q4/07 Q2/08 Q4/08 Q2/09 Q4/09
1. LJZ Plaza
2. UC Tower
3.CIFC
3. China Fortune Tower
4. China Diamond Exchange Center
10.Bank of Shanghai Tower 11.One Lujiazui 12.Shanghai World Financial Centre 13.Mirae Asset Tower 14.BEA Finance Tower 15.HSBC Building (ifc I)
BEA Finance Twr
147,254
China Diamond Exchange Centre
GC Tower
93,597
Yue Da 889
Changning Zhuyuan Jing’an Lujiazui
HSBC Bldg
ShanghBaidu Nhomakorabeai Poly Plz
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
CBD Grade A Future Supply (2010-2014 Total: 3,441,534 sq m)
sqm 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000
0
CBD Grade A Supply (2009 Total: 329,489 sq m)
88,638
Gubei Int'l Fortune Center I
3.Shanghai International Trade Center 4.Aetna Tower 5.Maxdo Center 6.Metro Plaza 7.Gubei International Fortune Center Phase I
1
3.Shanghai Kerry Centre 8 The Exchange
Vacancy Rate
13.5%
CBD Grade A Office Take-up and Rent
Fall in rent apparently stabilised
Shanghai CBD Grade A office market trend
'000 sq m 450
Quarterly Supply
57.2 ￥-525..50#%
7 Zhuyuan 265,300 sq m Financial Institution tenants
Total Stock 3,473,873 sq m
CBD Grade A Grade A Offices by Q4 2009
1.Cloud 9 Int’l Plaza
6 Changning 418,931 sq m Manufacturing tenants
￥88.2.6# 218.5%
6.0
6
￥5.9 #
12.1%
7.1
5￥15.72%.2#
41￥7.47%.7
￥77.4.8#
22.8%
Xuhui 396,918 sq m FMCG tenants
Unit: RMB/sq m/day Change Year-on-Year
sq m
1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000
889,629
900,000
Manpo International
Plaza
817,634
Juyi Tower Huamin Imperial Twr
Shanghai CBD Grade A office market trend
'000 sq m 4,500
4,000
Stock
Occupancy Area
Vacancy Rate
16%
14.8% 14%
3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000
12% 10% 8% 6% 4%
Gubei Int'l Fortune Center II International Commerce Centre I
Wheelock Square
Metropolitan
Jiarui Int’l Plaza
Sheng Da Center
Shanghai Kerry Centre PD LJZ Information Ctr Wanxiang Plaza 21st Century Twr DBS Tower Shanghai Golden Landmark Twr
CBD Grade A Office Rent by Grades
Premium Grade VS. Grade A office rent in Q4 2009
Avg. Rent
PD
PX
SH
(RMB/sq m/day)
Premium
6.8
8.7
7.9
Grade A
6.2
6.6
6.4
Avg.
6.3
10% Q2/08 Q4/08 Q2/09 Q4/09
AZIA Center
SWFC
24％ ￥1.5
Premium Office Buildings
Park Place K.Wah Centre
Platinum
Corporate Avenue HSBC Building (ifc I)
CBD Grade A Office* Stock and Rent by Q4 09
Take-up
Rental 12
400 11
350
RMB10/sq m/day
300
10
250
9
200
32%
150
8
100
7 RMB 6.8/sq m/day
50
6 0
Q2/05 Q4/05 Q2/06 Q4/06 Q2/07 Q4/07 Q2/08 Q4/08 Q2/09 Q4/09
-50
5
CBD Grade A Office Take-up and Rent
Jing’an 531,454 sq m Service Industry tenants
4 Huangpu 272,918 sq m
Service/ Trade/ Financial Institution tenants
6 Changning 418,931 sq m Manufacturing tenants
RMB/sq m/day 4.5 4.0 3.5
Difference
Premium Grade spread
60%
￥4
45％
50%
3.0
40%
2.5
30%
2.0 20%
1.5
1.0 Q2/05 Q4/05
Plaza 66 Tower 1&2
Q2/06
Q4/06 Q2/07 Raffles City
Q4/07
72 1.The Center 2.Metro Tower
64 2
3.K.Wah Center
4.Grand Gateway
5.Huai Hai Plaza
1.Shui On Plaza 2.Platinum 3.Shanghai Central Plaza 4.Lippo Plaza 5.Hong Kong New World Tower 6.Corporate Avenue
1.Shanghai Centre
6.Plaza 66 Tower2
1.Bund Center
4. Chong Hing Finance Center
2.Dawning Center
2.Westgate Tower
7.Park Place
2.Raffles City
5.Hongyi Building
4.CITIC Square
9.Yue Da 889
5.Plaza 66 Tower1
5
4
1
2 4
23
9
8 1 65
4
3 7
5 7
31
26
3
1
5
64 53
3.The Headquarters Building
7 11
16
15 5 10 1
3
13 4
2
9 12
6
8 14
5 3 2 14
1.HSBC Tower 2.Jin Mao Tower 3.China Insurance Building 4.Aurora Plaza 5.BOC Tower 6. Pufa Tower 7.Azia Center 8.Citigroup Tower 9.Standard Chartered Tower
PX -9.8% -16.5% -14.5%
SH -16.6% -19.2% -18.5%
Change YoY
Premium and Grade A Rental Gap
Significant narrowing in rental gap
Rental gap between Premium Grade and Grade A offices
Shanghai Office Market Recent Market Developments and Outlook
Jan 2010
Shanghai CBD Grade A office market
CBD Grade A Office Stock and Vacancy
Pressure on vacancy rate mitigated as some demand came back
* Comprise Premium Grade and Grade A offices
Luwan 288,197 sq m Service Industry tenants
1 Lujiazui 1,300,155 sq m Financial Institution tenants
16.5 ￥271..30%#
Luwan 288,197 sq m Service Industry tenants
1 Lujiazui 1,300,155 sq m Financial Institution tenants
16.5 ￥(179.80)#
57.2 ￥(155.85)#
7 Zhuyuan 265,300 sq m Financial Institution tenants
500
3%
2%
*
0
0%
Q2/05 Q4/05 Q2/06 Q4/06 Q2/07 Q4/07 Q2/08 Q4/08 Q2/09 Q4/09
* Stock figures adjusted. Not directly comparable with previous periods.
Premium Grade
7.2
6.8
Avg. Rental
Change QoQ% Premium
Grade A
Avg.
PD -2.2% -4.9% -4.3%
PX -0.7% -2.2% -1.9%
SH -1.3% -3.4% -2.9%
Change QoQ
Change YoY% Premium
Grade A
Avg.
PD -25.9% -22.3% -23.2%