五种主流公司估值模型Valuation_model

一般情景预测

公司名称

华星化工代码002018分析日期

2006/04/18流通A 股2,000.00流通B 股总股本6,500.00A 股股价7.17B 股股价

Word 模板指标输出

2004A 2005A 2006E 2007E 主营收入（万元）

25,110.0035,524.0048,675.9367,905.18主营收入增长率

24.39%41.47%37.02%39.50%EBITDA （万元）

4,027.004,577.008,108.4613,348.07EBITDA 增长率

15.95%13.66%77.16%64.62%净利润（万元）

2,147.002,371.003,522.906,606.93净利润增长率

0.56%10.43%48.58%87.54%ROE

8.28%8.68%11.67%18.59%EPS （元）

0.3300.3650.542 1.016P/E

21.7119.6613.237.05P/B

1.80 1.71 1.54 1.31EV/EBITDA

9.1711.03 6.94 3.88估值结果汇总

估值方法

估值结果FCFF

20.6417.08－23.62FCFE

16.3814.90－19.09DDM

2.86 2.63－

3.29APV

17.9914.90－20.13AE

10.109.65－10.94EVA 16.3314.21－18.10

2003200420052006E EBIT

3,473.003,448.003,732.006,051.67EBITDA

3,473.004,027.004,577.008,108.46所得税率

32.01%33.84%31.63%32.73%NOPLAT

2,361.422,281.312,551.494,070.69IC

9,162.0016,252.0031,033.0039,678.80Ve

32,265.0046,605.0046,605.0046,605.00Vd

2,700.004,670.0011,771.0020,489.52WACC

11.55%11.43%10.50%9.63%EV 32,649.0036,937.0050,467.0056,257.40

业绩表现2003200420052006E

估　值　区　间0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

FCFF

FCFE

DDM

APV

AE

EVA

A股计算）