关于移动通信行业的趋势分析(英文版)

1,200,000,000
1,000,000,000 800,000,000 600,000,000
Projected Cellular Subscribers
Projected PC's Connected to the
Internet
(Dataquest 10/98)
400,000,000
200,000,000
Mobile voice is maturing
The value of mobile voice services has peaked. Much of the value growth in the US is now substitutive
Average Revenue Per Subscriber is declining ...
• Large scale and rapid IT infrastructure development is required
• CMCC has requested PricewaterhouseCoopers’ assistance in building a worldclass IT infrastructure
1999 - 2000
1998
File transfer; download
Information Broadcast: Weather; banking; news; stocks
Data 9.6 - 14.5
kbps
SMS
Info access; Intranet
access; real time apps;, interactive
In the US, mobile valuations generally exceed cash generation by a significant margin
It is thought that data services will ultimately fill this “value gap”, with mobile devices becoming the ECommerce “tool of choice” for most consumers
CDPD, GPRS 57.6 - 115.2 kbps
Wireless multimedia, voice, video, multimedia
applications, M-commerce
EDGE
136+ 115.2 - 384
kbps
WCDMA 384 kbps - 2
Mbps
WCDMA 384 kbps - 3
Asia -- Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore --
2002+
portend to be leaders in the introduction of mobile data applications
2001-02
2000-01
GSM TDMA PDC
sessions
HSCSD
Data 9.6
SMS
CDPD 19.2 kbps
Data 28.8 kbps
SMS
Info access: Intranet access: WWW access;
always “on” line; Mobile ISP; image
transfer
GPRS 115.2 kbps
• We are the undisputed leaders in this area worldwide, and have unique delivery capabilities in China
Key Issues for China Mobile
Key Trends in Mobile Telecoms
Projected WAP Handsets
-
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Mbps
WCDMA 384 kbps - 3
Mbps
Many believe that Internet access will move to the “handset”
1,400,000,000
Projections of WAP, Cellular Subs, and Internet Subs Growth
% Mobile Value
100%
70%
Other
Voice Services
• FMC • Substitution •Data/Broadband
Investors believe that the introduction of mobile data technologies will create significant new opportunities...
Context
• China Mobile facing growing competition from both Unicom and China Telecom
• CMCC’s billing and IT infrastructure are inadequate to sustain competitive advantage
… keeping EBITDA margins flat
ARPU
Penetration
Baidu Nhomakorabea
USA Cellular EBITDA % 1998 - 2002
* Sonera is re-branded Telecom Finland Mobile
Note: This data represents results for a “typical” cellular company Source: DLJ
关于移动通信行业的趋 势分析(英文版)
2020年4月25日星期六
Agenda
• Context • Key issues for China Mobile • The Communications Enterprise Solution
Architecture (CESA) • Customer Relationship Management (CRM) • About PricewaterhouseCoopers