股票估值
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映企业的真正价值。
Liquidation value is what the company could net by selling its assets and repaying its debts. It does not capture the value of a successful going concern.清算价值是指公司全部资产变现收入清偿全部负债后的净值，并没有
贴现模型。
Stock price = PV (all future dividends per share)
7.4 简化的股利贴现模型
零增长股利折现模型
稳定增长股利折现模型
The dividend discount model with no growth零增长股利折现模型
Consider a company that pays out all its earnings to its common shareholders假设某公司将所有收益都作来自百度文库股息支付给股东。
Tips：股票的内在价值不会因为投资期的长短而改变（见example7.2）
If the horizon is infinitely far away, then we can forget about the final horizon price如果投资期无现长，就可以在计算中忽略投资期末的股价 （因为现值几乎为0），此时股票价格=预期股利的贴现值，这就是股利
(tips：模拟多重现金流的贴现模型）
P0 = Present value of (DIV1, DIV2, DIV3, …, DIVt, …) Suppose we call our horizon date H, then
P0 = DIV1/(1+r)+DIV2(1+r)2+∙∙∙+(DIVH+PH)/(1+r)H
–
Common stock: ownership shares in a publicly held corporation
普通股：在公司的经营管理和盈利及财产的分配上享有普通权利的股份。
–
– –
普通股的两大特点：
有限责任limited liability 剩余追索权residual claim
股票市场
Market value is not the same as book value or liquidation value. Market value treats the firm as a going concern。市场价值与账面价值 和清算价值不同，它假定企业是持续经营的：
1.extra earning power.企业有产生超额收益的 能力，也就是说资产的实际价值可以高于账面 价值。 2.intangible assets.无形资产并未计入到资产 负债表中，但其价值却体现在股票价格中。 3.value of future investment.如果投资者认为 企业有较好的发展前景，他们则会愿意支付更 高的价格去获得股票。
Sales of new stock by the firm are said to occur in the primary market. There are two types of primary market issues: IPO and seasoned offerings. – Primary market: market for the sale of new securities by corporations初级市场：公司发行证 券的市场 – Initial public offering (IPO): fist offering of stock to the general public – Seasoned offering: sales of new shares by established firms
Tips:股利是税后利润的一部分。
Dividend yield：how much dividend income you receive for each dollar that you invest in the stock.股 息收益率是指每股股利与股票市价的比率。 Price-earnings (P/E) multiple: ratio of stock price to earnings per share市盈率是指每股市价为每股收益的 多少倍。
Content主要内容
Stocks and the stock market股票与股票市场 Book values, liquidation values, and market values 账面价值、清算价值与市场价值 Valuing common stocks普通股估价
Simplifying the dividend discount model简化股利贴现
Today’s price and tomorrow’s price今日市价与明日市价
The cash payoff to owners of common stocks comes in two forms: (1) cash dividends and (2) capital gains or losses股东收益=现金股利+资本利得或损失
总结三者的区别：
Book value records what a company has paid for its assets, less a deduction for depreciation. It does not capture the true value of a business.账面价值反映的是公司为购买资产支付的价格减去折旧后的余额，并没有反
Brain storming:
若股票实际价格为$80，投资者会做出什么决策？ 若股票实际价格为$70，投资者会做出什么决策?
The dividend discount model 股利贴现模型——P.156
A formula that requires tomorrow’s stock price to explain today’s stock price is not generally helpful运用预期股利贴现值 来评估当期股票价格的一种现金流贴现模型。
For Blue Skies DIV1 = $3 and P1 = $81. If stocks of similar risk offer an expected return of r = 12%, then 12% is the opportunity cost of funds invested in Blue Skies.
Expected rate of return = r = (DIV1+P1-P0)/P0 = expected dividend yield +expected capital gain = DIV1/P0 + (P1-P0)/P0
股票的期望收益率=股利收益率+股价增长率
Price today = P0 = (DIV1+P1)/(1+r)
反映企业的持续经营价值。
Market value is the amount that investors are willing to pay for the shares of the firm. This depends on the earning power of today’s assets and the expected profitability of future investments
市场价值是投资者愿意为购买公司所有股票支付的金额，取决于企业现有资产的盈利能力和企业未来 投资机会的预期获利能力。
7.3 valuing common stock普通股估价
Dividend: periodic cash distribution from the firm to its shareholders股息或股利是指公司对股东投资的回 报，是股东所有权在分配上的体现。
In words, the value of a stock is the present value of the dividends it will pay over the investor’s horizon plus the present value of the expected stock price at the end of that horizon股票的内在价值等于投 资期内股利的现值与投资期末预期的股票价格的现值之和。
模型 Growth stocks and income stocks增长型股票和收益 股票
7.1 股票与股票市场-P.148
Firms issue shares of common stock to the public when they need to raise money. 当公司需要筹集资金时会选择发行股票。
首次公开发行
股票市场
一级市场or 初级市场
二级市场
增发
7.2 市场价值、账面价值与清算价值 P151-P152
Book value: net worth of the firm according to the balance sheet 账面价值：资产在资产负债表上的价值，即公司的净资产值，等于 总资产与负债之差（参见TABLE 7.1）。 Liquidation value: net proceeds that could be realized by selling the firm’s assets and paying off its creditors 清算价值：全部资产的变现收入清偿全部负债后的余额
P0 = (3+81)/1.12 = $75 $75 is the right price, check this! At each point in time all securities of the same risk are priced to offer the same expected rate of return. 原理：等风险等期望收益率的股票价格应是相当的。
Chapter 6
Valuing stocks股票估值
Objectives学习目标
1.
2.
3.
4.
Understand the stock trading reports in the financial pages of the newspaper看懂报纸上的金 融板块的股票交易信息（了解股票如何发行） Calculate the present value of a stock given forecasts of future dividends and future stock price 给定预期股息和终值计算股票的现值 Use stock valuation formulas to infer the expected rate of return on a common stock用股票估价公式 导出普通股的期望收益率 Interpret price-earnings ratios说明市盈率（为什么 分析人员和企业本身会关注市盈率呢）
Large companies usually arrange for their stocks to be listed on a stock exchange, which allows investors to trade existing stocks among themselves – Secondary market: market in which previously issued securities are traded among investors 二级市场：已发行证券通过交易实 现流通转让的场所 – The two principal stock markets in the U.S. are the New York Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ
Liquidation value is what the company could net by selling its assets and repaying its debts. It does not capture the value of a successful going concern.清算价值是指公司全部资产变现收入清偿全部负债后的净值，并没有
贴现模型。
Stock price = PV (all future dividends per share)
7.4 简化的股利贴现模型
零增长股利折现模型
稳定增长股利折现模型
The dividend discount model with no growth零增长股利折现模型
Consider a company that pays out all its earnings to its common shareholders假设某公司将所有收益都作来自百度文库股息支付给股东。
Tips：股票的内在价值不会因为投资期的长短而改变（见example7.2）
If the horizon is infinitely far away, then we can forget about the final horizon price如果投资期无现长，就可以在计算中忽略投资期末的股价 （因为现值几乎为0），此时股票价格=预期股利的贴现值，这就是股利
(tips：模拟多重现金流的贴现模型）
P0 = Present value of (DIV1, DIV2, DIV3, …, DIVt, …) Suppose we call our horizon date H, then
P0 = DIV1/(1+r)+DIV2(1+r)2+∙∙∙+(DIVH+PH)/(1+r)H
–
Common stock: ownership shares in a publicly held corporation
普通股：在公司的经营管理和盈利及财产的分配上享有普通权利的股份。
–
– –
普通股的两大特点：
有限责任limited liability 剩余追索权residual claim
股票市场
Market value is not the same as book value or liquidation value. Market value treats the firm as a going concern。市场价值与账面价值 和清算价值不同，它假定企业是持续经营的：
1.extra earning power.企业有产生超额收益的 能力，也就是说资产的实际价值可以高于账面 价值。 2.intangible assets.无形资产并未计入到资产 负债表中，但其价值却体现在股票价格中。 3.value of future investment.如果投资者认为 企业有较好的发展前景，他们则会愿意支付更 高的价格去获得股票。
Sales of new stock by the firm are said to occur in the primary market. There are two types of primary market issues: IPO and seasoned offerings. – Primary market: market for the sale of new securities by corporations初级市场：公司发行证 券的市场 – Initial public offering (IPO): fist offering of stock to the general public – Seasoned offering: sales of new shares by established firms
Tips:股利是税后利润的一部分。
Dividend yield：how much dividend income you receive for each dollar that you invest in the stock.股 息收益率是指每股股利与股票市价的比率。 Price-earnings (P/E) multiple: ratio of stock price to earnings per share市盈率是指每股市价为每股收益的 多少倍。
Content主要内容
Stocks and the stock market股票与股票市场 Book values, liquidation values, and market values 账面价值、清算价值与市场价值 Valuing common stocks普通股估价
Simplifying the dividend discount model简化股利贴现
Today’s price and tomorrow’s price今日市价与明日市价
The cash payoff to owners of common stocks comes in two forms: (1) cash dividends and (2) capital gains or losses股东收益=现金股利+资本利得或损失
总结三者的区别：
Book value records what a company has paid for its assets, less a deduction for depreciation. It does not capture the true value of a business.账面价值反映的是公司为购买资产支付的价格减去折旧后的余额，并没有反
Brain storming:
若股票实际价格为$80，投资者会做出什么决策？ 若股票实际价格为$70，投资者会做出什么决策?
The dividend discount model 股利贴现模型——P.156
A formula that requires tomorrow’s stock price to explain today’s stock price is not generally helpful运用预期股利贴现值 来评估当期股票价格的一种现金流贴现模型。
For Blue Skies DIV1 = $3 and P1 = $81. If stocks of similar risk offer an expected return of r = 12%, then 12% is the opportunity cost of funds invested in Blue Skies.
Expected rate of return = r = (DIV1+P1-P0)/P0 = expected dividend yield +expected capital gain = DIV1/P0 + (P1-P0)/P0
股票的期望收益率=股利收益率+股价增长率
Price today = P0 = (DIV1+P1)/(1+r)
反映企业的持续经营价值。
Market value is the amount that investors are willing to pay for the shares of the firm. This depends on the earning power of today’s assets and the expected profitability of future investments
市场价值是投资者愿意为购买公司所有股票支付的金额，取决于企业现有资产的盈利能力和企业未来 投资机会的预期获利能力。
7.3 valuing common stock普通股估价
Dividend: periodic cash distribution from the firm to its shareholders股息或股利是指公司对股东投资的回 报，是股东所有权在分配上的体现。
In words, the value of a stock is the present value of the dividends it will pay over the investor’s horizon plus the present value of the expected stock price at the end of that horizon股票的内在价值等于投 资期内股利的现值与投资期末预期的股票价格的现值之和。
模型 Growth stocks and income stocks增长型股票和收益 股票
7.1 股票与股票市场-P.148
Firms issue shares of common stock to the public when they need to raise money. 当公司需要筹集资金时会选择发行股票。
首次公开发行
股票市场
一级市场or 初级市场
二级市场
增发
7.2 市场价值、账面价值与清算价值 P151-P152
Book value: net worth of the firm according to the balance sheet 账面价值：资产在资产负债表上的价值，即公司的净资产值，等于 总资产与负债之差（参见TABLE 7.1）。 Liquidation value: net proceeds that could be realized by selling the firm’s assets and paying off its creditors 清算价值：全部资产的变现收入清偿全部负债后的余额
P0 = (3+81)/1.12 = $75 $75 is the right price, check this! At each point in time all securities of the same risk are priced to offer the same expected rate of return. 原理：等风险等期望收益率的股票价格应是相当的。
Chapter 6
Valuing stocks股票估值
Objectives学习目标
1.
2.
3.
4.
Understand the stock trading reports in the financial pages of the newspaper看懂报纸上的金 融板块的股票交易信息（了解股票如何发行） Calculate the present value of a stock given forecasts of future dividends and future stock price 给定预期股息和终值计算股票的现值 Use stock valuation formulas to infer the expected rate of return on a common stock用股票估价公式 导出普通股的期望收益率 Interpret price-earnings ratios说明市盈率（为什么 分析人员和企业本身会关注市盈率呢）
Large companies usually arrange for their stocks to be listed on a stock exchange, which allows investors to trade existing stocks among themselves – Secondary market: market in which previously issued securities are traded among investors 二级市场：已发行证券通过交易实 现流通转让的场所 – The two principal stock markets in the U.S. are the New York Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ