2010年7月7_15日湖北省持续性暴雨分析_徐双柱

徐双柱,吴涛,王艳.2010年7月7—15日湖北省持续性暴雨分析[J].暴雨灾害,2012,31(1):35-43

XU Shuangzhu,WU Tao,WANG Yan.Analysis of sustained rainstorm events over Hubei from July 7to 15in 2010[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,2012,31(1):35-43

2010年7月7—15日湖北省持续性暴雨分析

徐双柱，吴涛，王艳

（武汉中心气象台，武汉430074）

摘

要：利用常规观测资料、NCEP1°×1°再分析资料、地面自动站降水实况资料以及卫星云图资料和雷达组合反射率因

子资料等，从环流背景、形成机理、雷达回波与卫星云图特征等方面，对2010年7月7—15日湖北省持续性暴雨进行综合分析。结果表明:中高纬度不断有短波槽东移，副热带高压和中低层切变线稳定维持，低空西南急流发展强盛，是持续性暴雨发生的有利大尺度环流背景；在中尺度回波团或回波带及中尺度对流云团的影响下产生暴雨；中尺度对流回波或云团一般发生在多个天气尺度系统的汇合处，对暴雨预报有一定的指示意义；水汽辐合贯穿整个降水过程，在低层出现强湿度中心时，对应强降水发生；中尺度对流系统表现在整个对流层为上升运动，暴雨区位于CAPE 值梯度不断加大的密集带中，低层θse 锋区不断增强为对流性强降水发生提供了有利的不稳定条件。关键词：持续性暴雨；切变线；急流；中尺度对流系统中图分类号：P458.1+21.1

文献标识码：Ａ

文章编号：1004-9045(2012)01-0035-09

Analysis of sustained rainstorm events over Hubei from July 7to 15in 2010

XU Shuangzhu,WU Tao,WANG Yan

（Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory ，Wuhan 430074）

Abstract ：Using conventional observational data,NCEP 1°×1°reanalysis data,AWS precipitation data,radar data,satellite data and so on,the sustained rainstorm events over Hubeir province from July 7to 15in 2010are comprehensively analyzed focusing on circulation back-ground,formation mechanism,radar echo data and satellite cloud images etc.The conclusions are drawn that the short-wave troughs in the mid-and high-latitude continuously moving eastwards,stabilization and maintenance of both subtropical high over the west Pacific and shear in the mid-and low-level,and development of southwesterly low-level jet provide favorable large-scale circulation background for the occur-rence of the sustained rainstorm events.Mesoscale echo clusters or echo bands and mesoscale convective cloud clusters result in the rainstorm events.Mesoscale convective echoes or cloud clusters generally emerge in the confluence areas of various synoptic scale systems,which have cer-tain prediction significance for short-term rainstorm forecast.The convergence of water vapor takes place in the entire process of precipitation,and rainfall areas correspond to high air humidity center in low-level.Mesoscale convective systems in the entire troposphere present an ascend-ing movement,and the distribution of rainstorm is in dense areas with CAPE gradient continuously increasing,and frontal zone of θse in the low-level continuously strengthens and supply unstable condition which is advantageous for the occurrence of convective severe precipitation.Key words ：sustained rainstorm;shear line;jet;mesoscale convective systems

收稿日期：2011-08-02；定稿日期：2011-11-15

资助项目：公益性行业(气象)科研专项“定量降水估计和短期定量降水预报”与“卫星云图解译技术研究”（GYHY200906010）第一作者：徐双柱，主要从事短期天气预报业务工作。E-mail:xsz3180@

0引言

江淮梅雨暴雨具有突发性、区域性以及物理机制

复杂等特点，常导致多种气象灾害及次生灾害。2010年7月7—15日湖北省出现持续性强降水过程(以下简

称“10.7”湖北持续暴雨)，因此次暴雨持续时间长、降水强度大，造成鄂东严重洪涝、鄂西南严重渍涝、湖北省东西部山区山洪及滑坡等地质灾害、武汉等城区严重渍涝。统计结果表明，此次持续暴雨洪涝灾害造成湖北省直接经济损失47.4亿元。关于暴雨的天气尺