论上市公司股利政策的选择与实施

题目论上市公司股利政策的选择与实施

摘要

本文以股利政策选择与实施行为的经济学解释为基础，以政策的方向性和趋势性为评判依据，选取沪深两市 283 家 A 股上市公司从 1994 年到 2002 年的持续股利政策数据作为研究样本，接受，资本回报率等，讨论中国上市公司股利政策的选择行为改变静态和临时趋势，经过测试静态趋势预测的准确性。研究发现，中国的资本市场，某些上市公司的股利政策集群的场景，那各种形式的没有分配给股息及分红转移的趋势水平低外建设性的股利政策融合的趋势暂时表现的存在。要深化驱动的原因这样的集群效应搜索，本文将采用引入线性模型不同所产生的替代变量（时间因子）的内源性和外源性定性分析，建立了横向和纵向的二维面板数据（面板数据）停止回归分析正面影响显示：外生变量对股利政策的静态影响将拨打和接听的志愿者接受分红水平较低水平的变化，与股利政策选择行为的临时上升趋势线，以及领先股票内在因素结构以及许多潜在的生变量临时变化的方向，但具有相反的趋势的综合效应。根据实证结果和现实的分析，本文得出中国上市公司股利政策的选择行为是外生驱动，非集群效应知觉行为股利政策的进一步证据。

上述研究结果从侧面否定了我国资本市场的有效性，展示出资本市场效率问题的根源所在，并为我国当前的政策性改制提供了良好的理论支持。

关键词：股利政策；集群效应；面板模型

ABSTRACT

The dividend policy selection and implementation of behavioral economics to explain the basis, in policy direction and trends as the evaluation basis, select the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock 283 A-share listed companies from 1994 to 2002 sustained dividend policy data as the study sample, by introducing random Markov chain dynamic model of incremental process, combined with the comparative static analysis, from the dividend, dividend payment level, the rate of return on capital and to study the dynamic change of behavior dividend policy choice of Chinese listed companies and long-term trends, and through inspection and dynamic trend of the accuracy of prediction. Found that China's capital market, dividend policy of listed companies exist cluster phenomena to a certain extent, long-term performance for dividend policy internal structural convergence trend, that is, the state has to distribute dividends and dividend distribution low horizontal transfer trend. To further explore the driving reason of such a clustering effect, the obtained by qualitative analysis of a variety of internal factors and external alternative variables (time factor) into linear model, horizontal and vertical two-dimensional panel data (panel data) is established by regression analysis. The empirical results show that: the dynamic effects of exogenous variables on the dividend policy will make the dividend willingness to pay and pay level to the low level changes, and dividend policy choice behavior of the long-term trend line, and students leading shareholding structure factors and many potential endogenous variables influence direction but with long-term trend instead. According to the empirical results and theoretical analysis, this paper concludes that the dividend policy choice behavior of Chinese listing Corporation is an exogenous driven type, which further proves the non rational behavior characteristics of the dividend policy cluster effect.

The research results from the side denied the effectiveness of China's capital market, showing the root causes of the problem of capital market efficiency, and provides a good theoretical support for China's current policy reform.

KEY WORDS：Dividend policy; Cluster effect; Panel model