多边投资担保机构在促进私营部门融资发展基础设施方面所能发挥的

❖ More important than instruments: better contracts:
• Clear guidance to the regulator in contract
• Specify tariff formulas as much as feasible
• Clarify appeal process
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127.5
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风险到底如何？ How real are the risks?
Payment risk Government fails to pay amounts due
Sub-sovereign risk Investments often at sub-sovereign level
Affordability riskPrivate operators and consumers will not do it all; role of public investments and subsidies
货币风险 美元债务和地方货 币收入
法律风险 法律框架未能实施 或未经实验
支付风险 政府未能如期支付
次级主权风险 投资风险常常 发生在次级主权层次l
可负担性风险 私营部门投资 者很难单独投资
Currency risk Dollar debt and local currency earnings
Regulatory risk Regulatory framework not implemented or untested
• defaults on government obligations
• revocation of concessions given by previous governments
• financing difficulty for new projects
• contract frustration due to inadequate legal & regulatory frameworks
• Fast track arbitration; timeline
• Specified exit payments if no agreement can be reached
❖ Through mitigation instruments
• Partial credit guarantees, partial risk guarantees, breach of contract coverage can mitigate regulatory risk
Thus how to fill the gap?
▪ Private sector?
▪ Taxpayers?
▪ Tariffs?
▪ A combination, i.e. PPPs?
在多部门吸引私营投资需要减少风险 Attracting private investment in a
number of sectors will require risk mitigation
• Non payments by Governments of amounts due (e.g. Output Based Assistance)
PPP?
▪ Investment needs are enormous (power, water, etc.) !
▪ Public funding stable or even decreasing
▪ International aid is (and probably will remain) a small percentage of the overall financing package
促进私营部门融资发展基础
1990-2002年发展中国家有私营部门参与的基础设施投资 Investment in Infrastructure Projects with private participation in Developing countries, 1990-2002 (单位：10亿美元，$ billion)
❖ 最近投资者的经验包括 ：
– 私人资产的重新获得 – 政府责任欺骗 – 原来政府给予的特许收
回 – F新项目融资困难 – 由于立法和法律框架不
足造成合同执行失望
❖ 随着次级主权伙伴介入 的增加，风险领域扩大
❖ Recent investor experience includes:
• repossession of privatized assets
保险可减轻一些表现风险 Guarantees can mitigate some of the performance risks
• 税收承诺 • 立法过程 • 不连接政策 • 政府未预期支付 • 终止数量
• Tariff commitments
• Regulatory process
• Disconnection policies
减少法规和政策风险 Mitigating regulatory/policy risk
▪ 比工具更重要: 更好的合 同:
– 合同中包括对法规的清 楚描述
– 尽可能明确税收 – 澄清申述过程 – 快速仲裁
– 时间限制 – 如果未达成协议明确退
出支付
▪ 通过减小风险手段
– 部分风险担保 ，合同违 约保险可减轻法规风险
❖ Risk arena widening, as subsovereign partners increasingly involved
前景如何 Going forward
▪ 投资需求巨大(电力，水 ，等等)
▪ 公共投资稳定甚至减少 ▪ 国际援助在总体融资中
占较小比重
如何填补缺口？
▪ 私营部门？ ▪ 纳税者 ▪ 税收？ ▪ 综合上述几种， 即