中国经济增长数据

今年中国经济将增长6.5% ADB forecasts 6.5% China growth for 2016

China’s economic growth will only reach the lowerend of its own projections a nd its slowdown risksweighing on the rest of Asia, according to a reportfrom t he Asian Development Bank.

亚洲开发银行（Asian Development Bank，简称：亚开行）的一份报告显示，今年中国经济增速将只能达到该国自身预测区间的底端，而且中国增长的放缓可能会拖累亚洲其余地区。

The ADB’s flagship Asia Development Outlook 2016forecast that China’s eco nomy would grow at 6.5per cent this year and 6.3 per cent next year, compar ed with Beijing’s expectations of between6.5 and 7 per cent for 2016 and an average of 6.5 per cent over the next five years.

亚开行旗舰经济报告《2016年亚洲发展展望》(Asia Development Outlook 2016)预计，今年中国经济将增长6.5%，明年增长6.3%。而中国政府对今年经济增速的预期为6.5%到7%，对今后五年平均增速的预期为6.5%。

The slowdown in the region’s biggest economy has knocked as much as 0.3 p ercentage pointsoff the outlook for developing Asian economies because of th e region’s trade and supply chainlinks, the ADB said.

亚开行表示，考虑到亚洲的贸易和供应链联系，这个亚洲最大经济体的增长减速可能拖累亚洲地区整体经济0.3个百分点。

“[China’s] growth moderation and [the] uneven global recovery are weighi ng down overall growth in Asia,” said Shang-Jin Wei, ADB chief economist, w ho added that in spite of this, theregion would still contribute more than 60 per cent of global growth this year.

亚开行首席经济学家魏尚进表示：“中国经济增速放缓和全球复苏的不平衡抑制了亚洲的整体经济增长。”他还补充说，尽管面临这些压力，该地区仍将贡献全球经济增长的60%以上。

the ADB said the country’s wider economic impact was still largely limited to the region, withany negative effects of the country’s slowdown elsewhere in the world offset by gains fromlower commodity prices.

亚开行表示，中国产生的更广泛经济影响仍主要局限于亚洲地区，因为中国增长放缓对全球其他地区产生的任何负面影响，都会被大宗商品价格走低带来的好处所抵消。

Should China experience the sort of hard landing that investors feared in Janu ary — classed as“unlikely” by the ADB — the global economy would be hit much harder, knocking up to 1.8percentage points off worldwide growth.

若中国遭遇今年1月投资者所担心的那种硬着陆（亚开行认为这种情景“不太可能”发生），全球经济受到的冲击将会大得多，最多可将全球增速抹去1.8个百分点。

The report also highlighted the complexity of China’s economic relationships in the region as supply chains evolve. While manufacturing powerhouses suc h as South Korea have lostmarket share as China has moved up the value ch ain, others such as Vietnam have benefitedfrom taking over lower-end produc tion from its giant neighbour.

这份报告还强调了随着供应链不断演化，中国在亚洲地区经济关系的复杂程度。随着中国向价值链高端攀爬，韩国等制造业强国的市场份额有所萎缩。与此同时，通过从中国这个庞大邻国手中接过低端生产，越南等国家受益匪浅。

China will continue to struggle as it shifts from investment-led growth to an e conomy whereconsumption plays a larger role, the ADB said. Last year servic es and consumption accountedfor 4.6 percentage points of China’s overall gr owth, up from 3.7 in 2014.

亚开行表示，中国将继续努力从投资拉动型增长模式向消费发挥更大作用的增长模式转型。去年，中国经济整体增速有4.6个百分点来自服务业和消费，比2014年的3.7个百分点要高。

However, the ADB warned that governments around the region, including Chi na, needed tofocus far more on boosting productivity.

不过，亚开行警告称，包括中国在内的亚洲各国的政府，需要以比以前大得多的力度聚焦于提高生产率。

“Potential growth depends on both the growth of the labour force and the gro wth of labour productivity,” said Mr Wei.

“While altering demographics is not something that can be accomplished wit hin a few years, many developing economies still have tremendous room tous e structural reforms to remove distortions in the labour, capital and land mar kets‎.”

魏尚进表示：“潜在经济增长率取决于劳动力的增加和劳动生产率的提高。虽然不可能在短短几年内改变人口结构，但许多发展中国家仍有巨大空间通过结构性改革消除劳动力、资本和土地市场的扭曲。