FDI在农业及世界粮食安全中的角色 英文

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1. The end of the agricultural treadmill
• 2000-2050: Global supply growth will not keep pace: - shortage of land, - scarcity of water, - more expensive energy, - resource competition with non-food crops: cotton, rubber, bioenergy, flowers and ornamentals etc. - climate change,
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Implications of high ag prices 1
• Increase in undernutrition and hunger: - political instability, violence and migration • Increasing incentives for expanding the acreage:
FDI in agricutural land and world food security: What role for the European Union?
Harald von Witzke Humboldt University of Berlin
Brussels, March 8, 2012
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1. The end of the agricultural treadmill
- neglect of agriculture, agricultural research and productivity growth. World, 1960-1989: 4% annually, World, presently: ≈ 1 % annually EU presently: 0.6 % annually.
Outline
1. The changing international environment of world agriculture. 2. FDI: Theoretical framework. 3. FDI in agricultural land and land grabbing. 4. Options for the European Union.
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Implications 3: Increasing food scarcity erodes the trust in the international ag. trade system as instrument for nationalBiblioteka Baidufood security
• Exporting countries: → Export restrictions: e. g. Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, → Keep enough food at home and domestic food prices affordable. • Importing countries: → Securing the natural resources for domestic food security outside their boundaries → FDI in agricultural land (peaceful option), → or by other means!
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1. The end of the agricultural treadmill
• 2000-2050: Global demand will more than double: - Rapid population growth 2050:10 billion rather than 9 billion humans; - per capita income growth in developing and emerging economies.
– Increasing greenhouse gas emissions, – Loss of natural habitats and biodiversity.
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Implications of high ag prices 2
• Growing concerns in many countries about: - national food security, - political instability and violence.
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1. The end of the agricultural treadmill
• The long term trend of declining agricultural commodity prices has come to an end. • Since 2000: upward trend in prices →will continue. • Reason: Global demand growth outpacing growth in supply.
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World market prices, 2003/05 -2015/17
Source: von Witzke et al., 2009
Market
Wheat Corn Other grains Oilseeds Sugar
2003/05 $/mt
158 106 91 288 250
2015/17 $/mt Base scrno.
272 219 137 492 493
15/17 in p.c. of 03/05
+172 +207 +151 +171 +197
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Empirical evidence: The wheat price spike of Jan. 2007- June 2008
Source: von Witzke and Noleppa (2011). Variable Oil price Freight rates Population Income US$ ER Percent change 29.3 29.6 2.3 2.0 7.6 Variable Export restrictions Production Bioenergy Ttl. observed Ttl. explained Percent change 6.1 -10.7 0.1 77.8 78.3