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Steel Raw Materials
AME Group January 2014
Engineering Trends and Projects
• Demand: Steel Market Outlook
• Supply: Metallurgical Coal
• Supply: Iron Ore
Engineering Economics – AME Group
Chinese EAF Production Chinese BOF Production LHS: EAF Share of Total Steel Production %
Source: AME, WSA
The competition from mini-mills and the EAF route is not a medium term threat to coal and iron ore
35
(Mt)
(%)
30
%
70%
%
600
60% 50%
500
25
400
20
40%
300 15
30%
200 10
20%
100 5
10%
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
EAF uptake is limited by the availability of scrap and installed BOF capacity
Historical Steel Production in China
700
Mt
Modelled Scrap Steel Utilisation
Mt
Slag Rate (kg/t HM) Burnt Lime (kg/t HM - seconday Axis) Burnt Dolomite (kg/t HM - secondary axis)
50 40 30
300 250 200 150
20 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F
Semi-soft to be squeezed in the future in favour of PCI
Coke blend/PCI scenario for a Chinese based BF
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 Blast Furnace Capacity (Kt/yr) PCI Semi-Soft HCC
• Historically, EAF production in China averaged around 30% of production until the early 1990’s. • When steel production boomed from the early 90’s until the present the share of EAF production declined to less than 10%. • The current share of scrap utilisation will be maintained over the next two decades. • The dominance of the BOF steelmaking route over EAF means Chinese steel producers can only use a limited portion of scrap in their feed. • Steelmaking in China will remain largely blast furnace based as there is a structural shift towards higher quality steels, mandated by Government policy.
Source: AME
India – Steel production and slag
Indian Crude Steel Production (Mt)
80 70 60
Slag rate and flux consumption
500 450 400 350 100 80 60 40 20 140 120
Advanced Exploration
• • • • • • • • Geological Modelling to Prefeasibility Feasibility Studies to Commissioning Completion test, Debottlenecking, Expansions Ports, rail, barges, shipping & trucking Smelters, Refineries, Steel Mills, Hydrometallurgical/Pyrometallurgical. Trading, Sales, Contracts Company Demand, Specifications Consumer real demand (not apparent demand)
Coke blend/PCI scenario for an Indian based BF
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 Blast Furnace Capacity (Kt/yr) PCI Semi-soft HCC
Margins remain thin but the regional outlook differs
US HRC vs. Cash Costs and Utilisation rates, 2007 - 2013
$1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AME Cash Cost Average Coil Price Utilisation Rate (RHS) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 5Fra Baidu bibliotek% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
0
0% 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Base Case Scrap Share - High Case Scrap Share - Low Case
Steel production costs and margins, 1991 - 2012
Source: AME
Steel margins sustainable in China and production holding up
• Demand at the moment OK for Iron Ore and Coal – Global growth at 3.1 – 3.8% over next 24 months • Demand is not going to be the challenge over the medium term. • Competition for coal producer ramping up in China – more production and possible lower power prices. • Economic backdrop improving – the focus now shifts to supply and project analysis.
2014 +2.8% +3% -1 % 2.5%
Source: AME
Steel Market Overview
• Supply growth is regional, China up ~9% y-o-y for the ~9 months to September, slowing 2014. Japan up ~2%. • Supply has contracted in many regions, South Korea down 4.5% for the year squeezed by China (production) and Japan (lower Yen). • Demand in China remains strong, EU remains weak, US on an upswing, 2.6% 2014. • Inventories are relatively unimportant to steel market dynamics, less spot selling and more product made to order. • A continued pickup in demand will support prices, even as cash costs ease through 2014 due to lower iron ore prices.
Aluminium
(Additional Slides)
Steel Market at a Glance
Snapshot for AME’s 2014 Steel Market Outlook
Q1 2014 Supply Growth Demand Growth Inventories (% change) Price (% change) +2.5% +3.5% -2.5 % 3%
Source: AME
Coal demand impact of larger Blast Furnaces in Asia
• Current average Chinese BF capacity around 1.1Mtpa, average PCI consumption rate 140kg/t hot metal (HM). • Indian BF capacity around 1Mtpa, average PCI consumption rate PCI 59kg/t HM • Chinese PCI rate is significantly above Indian and world averages, hence starts from a different split compared to India. • As furnace size increases PCI usage also increases – South Korea average BF capacity of 3.2Mtpa utilising 225kg PCI/t HM • If however, PCI usage trends to a Japanese Model the pressure on semi-soft usage is expected to be much lower
100 50 0 0
Source: AME
India is significant but not China
• The Indian Ministry of Steel plans to nearly double national crude steel production capacity by the March 2015-April 2016 fiscal year. • Currently 4th largest steel producing country, forecast to be 2nd as early as 2015/16. • Indian ore quality poor, especially Alumina, leading to additional process costs.
Project Development Production Infrastructure & Transport Logistics Beneficiation General Commercial Marketing Manufacturing End User Analysis
Steel Market Outlook
Overview of AME Structure
Relationship London New York Hong Kong Beijing Sydney
Support
Research
Engineering
AME Group Supply and Value Chain
AME Group January 2014
Engineering Trends and Projects
• Demand: Steel Market Outlook
• Supply: Metallurgical Coal
• Supply: Iron Ore
Engineering Economics – AME Group
Chinese EAF Production Chinese BOF Production LHS: EAF Share of Total Steel Production %
Source: AME, WSA
The competition from mini-mills and the EAF route is not a medium term threat to coal and iron ore
35
(Mt)
(%)
30
%
70%
%
600
60% 50%
500
25
400
20
40%
300 15
30%
200 10
20%
100 5
10%
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
EAF uptake is limited by the availability of scrap and installed BOF capacity
Historical Steel Production in China
700
Mt
Modelled Scrap Steel Utilisation
Mt
Slag Rate (kg/t HM) Burnt Lime (kg/t HM - seconday Axis) Burnt Dolomite (kg/t HM - secondary axis)
50 40 30
300 250 200 150
20 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F
Semi-soft to be squeezed in the future in favour of PCI
Coke blend/PCI scenario for a Chinese based BF
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 Blast Furnace Capacity (Kt/yr) PCI Semi-Soft HCC
• Historically, EAF production in China averaged around 30% of production until the early 1990’s. • When steel production boomed from the early 90’s until the present the share of EAF production declined to less than 10%. • The current share of scrap utilisation will be maintained over the next two decades. • The dominance of the BOF steelmaking route over EAF means Chinese steel producers can only use a limited portion of scrap in their feed. • Steelmaking in China will remain largely blast furnace based as there is a structural shift towards higher quality steels, mandated by Government policy.
Source: AME
India – Steel production and slag
Indian Crude Steel Production (Mt)
80 70 60
Slag rate and flux consumption
500 450 400 350 100 80 60 40 20 140 120
Advanced Exploration
• • • • • • • • Geological Modelling to Prefeasibility Feasibility Studies to Commissioning Completion test, Debottlenecking, Expansions Ports, rail, barges, shipping & trucking Smelters, Refineries, Steel Mills, Hydrometallurgical/Pyrometallurgical. Trading, Sales, Contracts Company Demand, Specifications Consumer real demand (not apparent demand)
Coke blend/PCI scenario for an Indian based BF
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 Blast Furnace Capacity (Kt/yr) PCI Semi-soft HCC
Margins remain thin but the regional outlook differs
US HRC vs. Cash Costs and Utilisation rates, 2007 - 2013
$1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AME Cash Cost Average Coil Price Utilisation Rate (RHS) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 5Fra Baidu bibliotek% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
0
0% 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Base Case Scrap Share - High Case Scrap Share - Low Case
Steel production costs and margins, 1991 - 2012
Source: AME
Steel margins sustainable in China and production holding up
• Demand at the moment OK for Iron Ore and Coal – Global growth at 3.1 – 3.8% over next 24 months • Demand is not going to be the challenge over the medium term. • Competition for coal producer ramping up in China – more production and possible lower power prices. • Economic backdrop improving – the focus now shifts to supply and project analysis.
2014 +2.8% +3% -1 % 2.5%
Source: AME
Steel Market Overview
• Supply growth is regional, China up ~9% y-o-y for the ~9 months to September, slowing 2014. Japan up ~2%. • Supply has contracted in many regions, South Korea down 4.5% for the year squeezed by China (production) and Japan (lower Yen). • Demand in China remains strong, EU remains weak, US on an upswing, 2.6% 2014. • Inventories are relatively unimportant to steel market dynamics, less spot selling and more product made to order. • A continued pickup in demand will support prices, even as cash costs ease through 2014 due to lower iron ore prices.
Aluminium
(Additional Slides)
Steel Market at a Glance
Snapshot for AME’s 2014 Steel Market Outlook
Q1 2014 Supply Growth Demand Growth Inventories (% change) Price (% change) +2.5% +3.5% -2.5 % 3%
Source: AME
Coal demand impact of larger Blast Furnaces in Asia
• Current average Chinese BF capacity around 1.1Mtpa, average PCI consumption rate 140kg/t hot metal (HM). • Indian BF capacity around 1Mtpa, average PCI consumption rate PCI 59kg/t HM • Chinese PCI rate is significantly above Indian and world averages, hence starts from a different split compared to India. • As furnace size increases PCI usage also increases – South Korea average BF capacity of 3.2Mtpa utilising 225kg PCI/t HM • If however, PCI usage trends to a Japanese Model the pressure on semi-soft usage is expected to be much lower
100 50 0 0
Source: AME
India is significant but not China
• The Indian Ministry of Steel plans to nearly double national crude steel production capacity by the March 2015-April 2016 fiscal year. • Currently 4th largest steel producing country, forecast to be 2nd as early as 2015/16. • Indian ore quality poor, especially Alumina, leading to additional process costs.
Project Development Production Infrastructure & Transport Logistics Beneficiation General Commercial Marketing Manufacturing End User Analysis
Steel Market Outlook
Overview of AME Structure
Relationship London New York Hong Kong Beijing Sydney
Support
Research
Engineering
AME Group Supply and Value Chain