北极航线的海运经济潜力评估及其对我国经济发展的战略意义

北极航线的海运经济潜力评估及其

对我国经济发展的战略意义

张　侠1,屠景芳1,郭培清2,孙　凯2,凌晓良1

(1.中国极地研究中心,上海200136;2.青岛海洋大学,山东青岛266003)

摘　要:近30年来,北极地区发生了快速增暖现象,北冰洋海冰正在加速融化。最新预测,北冰洋10年内将出现夏季无冰年,打通连接欧洲、北美东部和东亚地区的新的海上航运通道。本文计算了我国未来北极远洋航线的海运里程和成本,并分析了该航线对于我国国际贸易和沿海经济发展的影响。分析表明:(1)利用北极航线,中国沿海诸港到北美东岸的航程相差不大,约比走巴拿马运河的传统航线节省2000～3500海里;到欧洲各港口的航程差别比较大,上海以北港口到欧洲西部、北海、波罗的海等港口比传统航线航程短25%～55%。(2)到2020年,如果北极航线完全打开,用北极航线替代传统航线,每年可节省533亿～1274亿美元的国际贸易海运成本。(3)北极航线将使拥有丰富能源资源储藏量的北极地区有可能成为我国海外资源采购的主要目的地之一,从而促进我国与北极国家的贸易。(4)北极航线的开通,将大大拉近欧、北美和东亚等大市场的距离,导致国际分工和产业布局发生变化,进而影响我国沿海地区产业分工和经济发展战略布局。

关键词:北极航线;国际贸易;海运里程;海运成本;经济发展

中图分类号:F061.3 文献标识码:A 文章编号:2009(X)017

The Econom i c Esti m a te of Arcti c Sea Routes and Its Stra teg i c

S i gn i f i cance for the D evelop m en t of Ch i n ese Econom y

ZHANG Xia1,T U J ing-fang1,G UO Pei-qing2,S UN Kai2,L ING Xiao-liang1

(1.Polar R esearch Institute of China,Shanghai200136,China;

2.O cean U niversity of China,Q ingdao266003,China)

Abstract:The cli m ate of circu mpolar A rctic is getting war mer f or al m ost30years,and the sea ice in the A rctic Ocean is rap idly reducing.According t o the latest f orecast,the sea ice will be tha wed t otally in su mmer within10years,which will enable a ne w sea r oute t o connect the Eur ope,east of North America and East A sia.It is described in this article that how l ong the arctic sea r outes is and what the cost will be,A ls o analyzed the future i m pact upon internati onal trade and coastal econom ic devel opment once the sea r outes opened.The article contains bel ow f our ite m s:1),A rctic sea r outes will be shorter nearly2000～3500nautical m iles than the cust omary r outes fr om Chinese coastal ports t o the east of North America,and reduce25%～55%of the cust omary r outes fr om the ports north of Shanghai t o the ports ofW est Eur ope,North Sea and Baltic Sea;2),It will reduce＄53.3～127.4billi on yearly of Chinese internati onal trade costs by shi pp ing thr ough the arctic sea r outes till2020;3),the trans portati on of oil,gas,coal and other m inerals will be more convenient,A rctic will become one of destinati on of Chinese purchase overseas.It will p r omote internati onal trade activi2 ties bet w een China and the countries of circu mpolar A rctic as well;4),it will shorten the distance of the biggest markets bet w een Eur ope,east A sia and the east of North America,and thus changes the internati onal industrial divisi on,in turn will als o str ongly i m pact strategic significance t o devel op ing Chinese economy in coastal regi ons.

Key words:arctic sea r outes;internati onal trade;lenth of sea r outes;sea m ile;costs of shi pp ing;econom ic devel opment

收稿日期:2009-08-18 修回日期:2009-09-18

基金项目:国家软科学研究计划(2008GXS5B099)

作者简介:张　侠(1962-),男,汉族,浙江宁波人,中国极地研究中心极地战略研究室(筹)负责人,研究方向:极地社会科学的研究。

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