众包众筹的深度介绍
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预测市场 解决问题&驱动创新
预测市场
多样性的预测市场定理 群体偏差=平均偏差– 多样性 多样性=精确性
预测市场
introduction
–Prediction markets (also known as predictive markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, or virtual markets) are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. –The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter.
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
解决问题&驱动创新
Perspective
–The best individual people tend to use similar perspectives and heuristics
Problem Solving Perspective
–The best individual people tend to use similar perspectives and heuristics
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
解决问题&驱动创新
视角 找到最优解也意味着找到了最好的视角
解决问题&驱动创新
视角
–Hiring people to solve a hard problem –1,000 applicants take a test to measure their individual abilities –Scores range from 60% to 90% –Should you hire: A. 20 people with the 20 highest scores, or B. 20 people randomly selected from the applicant pool?
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
–Crowdsourcing also increases efficiency
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
–“Bright Spots”
–Rather than solve the problem yourself, look for existing solutions
The Crowd always beats its average member Diversity
–problem solving, innovation
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
–Crowdfunding uses crowds to generate startup capital The site's two top-grossing campaigns were launched by established professionals and angel-backed companies. In March 2012, a video game project called Double Fine Adventure was posted by well-loved industry veterans and pulled in $3.3 million. The new record holder, the Pebble E-Paper Watch, reportedly had $375,000 in angel investments before kicking off its campaign last month. Of the $10 million that it raised, Kickstarter earned $500,000. To date, people have pledged more than $175 million to projects on the site.
预测市场
Gallup
解决问题&驱动创新
视角
问题的多方面的特征预示着解决方案的多样性
我们往往只考虑某些特征，从而决定了我们个体视角的局 限
群体的多元差异带来视角的多样性
解决问题&驱动创新
视角 想像解决问题，就是寻找问题的全局最优解
解决问题&驱动创新
视角 找到最优解也意味着找到了最好的视角
预测市场
Introduction
–People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. –Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants
–Crowdfunding uses crowds to generate startup capital
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
–Crowdfunding uses crowds to generate startup capital Matthew Lillard would like a dollar. Actually, the actor best known for playing Shaggy in the live-action Scooby Doo films would like $150,000. But he'd be happy if you gave him just one. Lillard is raising money on the popular website Kickstarter to fund his upcoming movie, Fat Kid Rules the World. To date, more than 20,000 projects have been hosted on the site since the New York City-based company's 2008 launch. Kickstarter vets projects in advance (accepting about 75% of applicants) and hosts the campaigns, which can last up to 60 days, for free.
预测市场
Intrade
预测市场
HSX
预测市场
HP
–Prediction market forecasts are statistically significantly better than official forecasts. –Only 22 participants on average.
–For example, a prediction market security might reward a dollar if a particular candidate is elected, such that an individual who thinks the candidate had a 70% chance of being elected should be willing to pay up to 70 cents for such a security.
众包
CROWDSOURCING
韦俊龙
目录
什么是众包
众包的特点
众包的优势
什么是众包
定义：一个公司或机构把过去由员工执行的工作任 务，以自由自愿的形式外包给非特定的（而且通常是 大型的）大众网络的做法。众包的任务通常由个人来 承担，但如果涉及到需要多人协作完成的任务，也有 可能以依靠开源的个体生产的形式出现 模式：发包方、接包方和中介机构
本质：利用群体多样性整合群体智慧、降低偏差
众包模式
1．发包方 发包方通常是企业或者拥有工作任务需要解决的个人。对于发 包方来说，其发布任务的方式有两种：一种是在公司网站上直 接发布，以悬赏的方式吸引众多的网民来参与解决问题；另外 一种方式，就是通过中介机构，通常是网站社区协会等，发包 方与新型网络签订合约。 2．接包方 接包方就是数量众多的互联网用户，在中国有一个特定的新名 称，叫威客。他们既可以是专业人士，也可以是非专业的兴趣 爱好者。 3．中介机构
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
–Difficulty No individual always finds the best answer –Competence People don’t get stuck in too many places i.e. they are reasonably well-informed –Diversity For any solution there is always a non-zero fraction of people that could improve upon it –Large enough teams and groups
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
–When these conditions are satisfied, a random group will always outperform a group of the best individual problem solvers
中介机构是沟通发包方和接包方的桥梁。
降低偏差
Diversity
统计上来说，群体偏差总是小于等于平均偏差
众包的特点
第一，众包是对外包的颠覆。 第二，众包蕴含著“携手用户协同创新”的理念。
第三，众包延伸了创新边界，借社会资源为己所用。
第四，在众包中，“草根”的创新愈发成为主流。
众包的优势
Should you be hiring people at random?
NO
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
–Instead of “hiring at random” we can use crowdsourcing and open innovation to increase the size and diversity of our problem solving and innovation workforce
预测市场
多样性的预测市场定理 群体偏差=平均偏差– 多样性 多样性=精确性
预测市场
introduction
–Prediction markets (also known as predictive markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, or virtual markets) are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. –The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter.
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
解决问题&驱动创新
Perspective
–The best individual people tend to use similar perspectives and heuristics
Problem Solving Perspective
–The best individual people tend to use similar perspectives and heuristics
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
解决问题&驱动创新
视角 找到最优解也意味着找到了最好的视角
解决问题&驱动创新
视角
–Hiring people to solve a hard problem –1,000 applicants take a test to measure their individual abilities –Scores range from 60% to 90% –Should you hire: A. 20 people with the 20 highest scores, or B. 20 people randomly selected from the applicant pool?
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
–Crowdsourcing also increases efficiency
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
–“Bright Spots”
–Rather than solve the problem yourself, look for existing solutions
The Crowd always beats its average member Diversity
–problem solving, innovation
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
–Crowdfunding uses crowds to generate startup capital The site's two top-grossing campaigns were launched by established professionals and angel-backed companies. In March 2012, a video game project called Double Fine Adventure was posted by well-loved industry veterans and pulled in $3.3 million. The new record holder, the Pebble E-Paper Watch, reportedly had $375,000 in angel investments before kicking off its campaign last month. Of the $10 million that it raised, Kickstarter earned $500,000. To date, people have pledged more than $175 million to projects on the site.
预测市场
Gallup
解决问题&驱动创新
视角
问题的多方面的特征预示着解决方案的多样性
我们往往只考虑某些特征，从而决定了我们个体视角的局 限
群体的多元差异带来视角的多样性
解决问题&驱动创新
视角 想像解决问题，就是寻找问题的全局最优解
解决问题&驱动创新
视角 找到最优解也意味着找到了最好的视角
预测市场
Introduction
–People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. –Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants
–Crowdfunding uses crowds to generate startup capital
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
–Crowdfunding uses crowds to generate startup capital Matthew Lillard would like a dollar. Actually, the actor best known for playing Shaggy in the live-action Scooby Doo films would like $150,000. But he'd be happy if you gave him just one. Lillard is raising money on the popular website Kickstarter to fund his upcoming movie, Fat Kid Rules the World. To date, more than 20,000 projects have been hosted on the site since the New York City-based company's 2008 launch. Kickstarter vets projects in advance (accepting about 75% of applicants) and hosts the campaigns, which can last up to 60 days, for free.
预测市场
Intrade
预测市场
HSX
预测市场
HP
–Prediction market forecasts are statistically significantly better than official forecasts. –Only 22 participants on average.
–For example, a prediction market security might reward a dollar if a particular candidate is elected, such that an individual who thinks the candidate had a 70% chance of being elected should be willing to pay up to 70 cents for such a security.
众包
CROWDSOURCING
韦俊龙
目录
什么是众包
众包的特点
众包的优势
什么是众包
定义：一个公司或机构把过去由员工执行的工作任 务，以自由自愿的形式外包给非特定的（而且通常是 大型的）大众网络的做法。众包的任务通常由个人来 承担，但如果涉及到需要多人协作完成的任务，也有 可能以依靠开源的个体生产的形式出现 模式：发包方、接包方和中介机构
本质：利用群体多样性整合群体智慧、降低偏差
众包模式
1．发包方 发包方通常是企业或者拥有工作任务需要解决的个人。对于发 包方来说，其发布任务的方式有两种：一种是在公司网站上直 接发布，以悬赏的方式吸引众多的网民来参与解决问题；另外 一种方式，就是通过中介机构，通常是网站社区协会等，发包 方与新型网络签订合约。 2．接包方 接包方就是数量众多的互联网用户，在中国有一个特定的新名 称，叫威客。他们既可以是专业人士，也可以是非专业的兴趣 爱好者。 3．中介机构
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
–Difficulty No individual always finds the best answer –Competence People don’t get stuck in too many places i.e. they are reasonably well-informed –Diversity For any solution there is always a non-zero fraction of people that could improve upon it –Large enough teams and groups
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
–When these conditions are satisfied, a random group will always outperform a group of the best individual problem solvers
中介机构是沟通发包方和接包方的桥梁。
降低偏差
Diversity
统计上来说，群体偏差总是小于等于平均偏差
众包的特点
第一，众包是对外包的颠覆。 第二，众包蕴含著“携手用户协同创新”的理念。
第三，众包延伸了创新边界，借社会资源为己所用。
第四，在众包中，“草根”的创新愈发成为主流。
众包的优势
Should you be hiring people at random?
NO
When does it work? Diversity trumps ability
–Instead of “hiring at random” we can use crowdsourcing and open innovation to increase the size and diversity of our problem solving and innovation workforce