组织与管理简介-交通大学

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3 2019/1/30
3 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授
綱要
1. The Decision-Making Process, 決策程序 2. Managers Making Decisions, 決策的普遍性 (pervasiveness) 3. Types of Decisions and Decision-Making Conditions, 決策的類別與情況 4. Decision-Making Styles, 決策風格 5. Effective Decision Making in Today’s World, 實務建議
管
第六章
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決策者
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Managers as Decision Makers
Lateral thinking turns up an idea. Vertical thinking develops it.
—Edward de Bone
任維廉
園區宅男選標準情人，郭台銘求偶條件，
選工作，選總統，選NB，選自助餐點
4 2019/1/30 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授
1. Decision-Making Process

Decision: Making a choice from two or more
alternatives. The eight steps in the decision-making process.
The
paradox of choice: 高級新果醬樣品試吃， 6 vs. 24種, 何者吸引人較多？實際買較多？
游爸只想買條牛仔褲
Kairos
2 2019/1/30 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授
一生能有幾次選擇？ 張無忌是最差勁的決策者
殷離 殷離 小昭 周芷若 楊不悔 趙敏 朱九真 O O X O O 小昭 周芷若 楊不悔 趙敏 朱九真 點數 X X O X X 1 O O X O 4 X O X O 3 X X X X 0 O O O O 5 X X O X 2 順位 5 2 3 6 1 4
Criterion
Memory and Storage
Weight
10
Battery life
Carrying Weight Warranty Display Quality ＊1~10, Σ＝100……
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8 2019/1/30 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授
Step 4: Developing Alternatives

＊學校：你有沒有答對？ ＊企業：問對問題往往比知道答案還重要（Albert Einstein），曲突徙薪，運輸規劃
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Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria
Βιβλιοθήκη Baidu
factors that are important to resolving the problem.
Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria

not of equal importance, in the correct priority order.
7 2019/1/30 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授
Exhibit 6–2 Criteria and Weights for Computer Replacement Decision

Appraising each alternatives: excel m*n,
＊Why Alternatives follow Criteria?
9 2019/1/30 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授
Assessed Values of Laptop Computers: Decision Criteria

Identifying viable alternatives Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem. 水平思考

Want vs. Must: min requirement
Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives


Costs that will be incurred (investments required)
Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure) Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)
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Evaluation of Laptop Alternatives: Weighted Criteria
11 2019/1/30 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授
Step 6: Selecting an Alternative

Choosing the best alternative The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.


A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it. There is pressure to solve the problem. 賀比 The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem. 不做決策
Step 7: Implementing the Alternative
To be ? or Not to be?
5 2019/1/30 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授
Step 1: Identifying the Problem

Problem: A discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs. Characteristics of Problems