国际金融英文版第三章课件
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国际金融英文版PPT(共46页)
The exchange rate would fluctuate between (0.80 + 0.008) = 0.8008 and (0.80 – 0.008) = 0.792
0.8008 and 0.792 are called gold export and import points.
The BOP disequilibrium was corrected by “Price-specie-flow mechanism”.
Example of gold export and import
If the gold par value in New Zealand was NZ$125/ounce and A$100/ounce in Australia, so mint par of exchange: 100/125 = A$0.80/NZ$ Costs of gold transportation: A$0.008/NZ$
The Classical Gold Standard (1876 – 1914)
The gold standard was a commitment by participating nations to fix the price of their domestic currencies in terms of a specified amount of gold.
International monetary system is based on the exchange rate system adopted by individual nations. The exchange rate system is a set of rules governing the value of a currency relative to other currencies.
0.8008 and 0.792 are called gold export and import points.
The BOP disequilibrium was corrected by “Price-specie-flow mechanism”.
Example of gold export and import
If the gold par value in New Zealand was NZ$125/ounce and A$100/ounce in Australia, so mint par of exchange: 100/125 = A$0.80/NZ$ Costs of gold transportation: A$0.008/NZ$
The Classical Gold Standard (1876 – 1914)
The gold standard was a commitment by participating nations to fix the price of their domestic currencies in terms of a specified amount of gold.
International monetary system is based on the exchange rate system adopted by individual nations. The exchange rate system is a set of rules governing the value of a currency relative to other currencies.
国际金融英文版CH3
Chapter 3
Foreign Exchange Market and Foreign Exchange Rate
Foreign Exchange Market
Foreign exchange is another country’s money. The dynamic meaning of the foreign exchange refers to the act of trading different country’s currencies.
Foreign exchange market structure
Customers buy $ with ￥
Local banks
Foreign exchange brokers
Major banks Interbank markets
Local banks
Customers buy ￥ with $
The foreign exchange market is an informal, over-the-counter and around-the-clock market.
It has no centralized meeting-place and no formal requirements for participation.
A spot exchange rate is the current market price, the rate at which a foreign exchange dealer converts one currency into another currency on a particular day.
Convertibility means a currency can be freely exchanged for another currency. This is the most important characteristic of the foreign exchange.
Foreign Exchange Market and Foreign Exchange Rate
Foreign Exchange Market
Foreign exchange is another country’s money. The dynamic meaning of the foreign exchange refers to the act of trading different country’s currencies.
Foreign exchange market structure
Customers buy $ with ￥
Local banks
Foreign exchange brokers
Major banks Interbank markets
Local banks
Customers buy ￥ with $
The foreign exchange market is an informal, over-the-counter and around-the-clock market.
It has no centralized meeting-place and no formal requirements for participation.
A spot exchange rate is the current market price, the rate at which a foreign exchange dealer converts one currency into another currency on a particular day.
Convertibility means a currency can be freely exchanged for another currency. This is the most important characteristic of the foreign exchange.
国际金融第三章 外汇汇率与汇率制度 课件
多项选择 实行出口导向的发展中国家，在一定时期内会采取 （）外汇政策。 A. 本币高估 B. 本币低估 C. 法定贬值 D. 法定升值
主要内容
第一节 外汇与汇率
第二节 汇率决定的基础与变动
第三节 汇率变化对经济的影响
第四节 汇率制度与汇率政策
第五节 我国的外汇管理体制
汇率制度与汇率政策
1. 汇率制度
•
如果，英镑的汇价低于黄金输入点，则具有英镑外
汇收入的商人，就不在外汇市场出卖英镑，可以直 接将1英镑所包含的黄金运回国内。
影响汇率变动的因素
• 宏观经济形势：
• （美国对汇率有重大影响的主要经济指标：全国采购经理指 数；耐用品订单；国内生产总值；设备使用率；失业率；先 导指数）
•
宏观调控政策与利率差异
元领取港币或赎回美元。
联系汇率制度（优点）
• 自我维护机制
• 商业银行与发钞行的套利活动 – 若外汇市场港元贬值，1美元=7.9港元
– 若外汇市场港元升值，1美元=7.7港元
联系汇率制度（缺点）
•削弱了联系汇率制国家或地区执行货币政策的独立性。
•维持港元与美元汇价稳定的一个基本条件是：港元利率应尽可能与美元利率保 持一稳定水平，这就要求港元利率必须随着美元利率的变化而变化。也就是说， 中国香港地区货币政策的制定必须以美国货币政策为依据，中国香港地区独立地 运用利率政策调节经济的效果受到一定的影响。
第四节 汇率制度与汇率政策
第五节 我国的外汇管理体制
什么是外汇 （FOREIGN EXCHANGE）
外汇与外币
• 外币
• • • 可兑换货币（完全自由兑换货币） 限制性兑换货币（有限度的自由兑换货币） 不可兑换货币（完全不能自由兑换货币）
国际金融课件第3章4课时
2008 All copy rights reserved.
5
Market Size
Main FX market average daily turnover, 1988 - 2007, in billions of USD
Source: Bank for International Settlements (December 2007)
Buying53
USD
682.69
CHF
603.48
JPY
6.3568
CAD
638
AUD
549.56
EUR
962.95
Cash Buying Rate
1175.15 86.83 677.22 590.75 6.2228 624.55 537.97 942.65
Suppose that bank in London may be unwilling to continue holding the pounds… • The top-tier inter-bank market accounts for 53% of all
transactions. • Participants in inter-bank market: commercial banks
CHAPTER 3
THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
2008 All copy rights reserved.
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Foreign Exchange
• Foreign exchange is the act of trading different nations’ moneys.
1 U.K. Pound = 1.762 188.9974 1.2463 1.8816
5
Market Size
Main FX market average daily turnover, 1988 - 2007, in billions of USD
Source: Bank for International Settlements (December 2007)
Buying53
USD
682.69
CHF
603.48
JPY
6.3568
CAD
638
AUD
549.56
EUR
962.95
Cash Buying Rate
1175.15 86.83 677.22 590.75 6.2228 624.55 537.97 942.65
Suppose that bank in London may be unwilling to continue holding the pounds… • The top-tier inter-bank market accounts for 53% of all
transactions. • Participants in inter-bank market: commercial banks
CHAPTER 3
THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
2008 All copy rights reserved.
2
Foreign Exchange
• Foreign exchange is the act of trading different nations’ moneys.
1 U.K. Pound = 1.762 188.9974 1.2463 1.8816
国际金融课件chap03-The Foreign Exchange Market-1.
Chap 3 The Foreign Exchange Market
3.1 Basics of Currency Trading 3.2 Foreign Exchange Market Activity 3.3 Demand and Supply for Foreign
Exchange 3.4 Foreign Exchange Trading
Second, where?
The global business was distributed in 2007 :
United Kingdom
34%
United States
17
Switzerland
6
Japan
6Байду номын сангаас
Singapore
6
Hong Kong
4
Australia
4
France
3
Germany
The US dollar was used in seven of the ten most heavily traded currency pairs, partly due to its use as a vehicle currency for cross-trading between other currencies.
Case study: Brussels sprouts a new currency
P34
Knowledge about the Trading
What is being traded in the global foreign exchange market?
Where is the trading done? Who are the traders?
3.1 Basics of Currency Trading 3.2 Foreign Exchange Market Activity 3.3 Demand and Supply for Foreign
Exchange 3.4 Foreign Exchange Trading
Second, where?
The global business was distributed in 2007 :
United Kingdom
34%
United States
17
Switzerland
6
Japan
6Байду номын сангаас
Singapore
6
Hong Kong
4
Australia
4
France
3
Germany
The US dollar was used in seven of the ten most heavily traded currency pairs, partly due to its use as a vehicle currency for cross-trading between other currencies.
Case study: Brussels sprouts a new currency
P34
Knowledge about the Trading
What is being traded in the global foreign exchange market?
Where is the trading done? Who are the traders?
国际金融英文版(托马斯.A.普格尔 著)---Chapter 3
direct quotation: 1 foreign currency unit = x home currency units indirect quotation: 1 home currency unit = x foreign currency units
THE BASICS OF CURRENCY TRADING
An exchange system quotation is given by stating the number of units of "term currency" (or "price currency" or "quote currency") that can be bought in terms of 1
The Foreign Exchange Market
The basics of currency trading
Demand and supply for foreign exchange Exchange rate system
Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market
THE BASICS OF CURRENCY TRADING
What is exchange rate?
Exchange rate is the price of one nation’s money in terms of another nation’s money. Exchange rate is the rate used by the market participants to convert one currency into another currency. Exchange rates (also known as the foreign-exchange rate, forex rate or FX rate) between two currencies specifies how much one currency is worth in terms of the other.
国际金融学3章-PPT精品文档68页
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§3.1 外汇与汇率概述
国家或地区 中国 香港 美国 日本 欧元区 瑞典 瑞士 英国 澳大利亚 加拿大
货币 人民币 港元 美元 日元 欧元 瑞典克朗 瑞士法郎 英镑 澳元 加元
符号 RMB¥ HK$ US$ ¥ € SKr SF £ A$ Can$
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ISO标准代码 CNY HKD USD JPY EUR SEK CHF GBP AUD CAD
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§3.1 外汇与汇率概述
• ④ 我国外汇的规定： – 外国货币：外币钞票、铸币等； – 外币有价证券：政府公债、国库券、公司债券、 股票、息票等； – 外币支付凭证：商业票据、银行存款凭证、邮 政储蓄凭证等； – 其他外汇资金
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§3.1 外汇与汇率概述
第三章 外汇与汇率
第一节 外汇与汇率概述 第二节 汇率的决定及其变动 第三节 西方汇率理论简介
本章学习目的：
第一：认识和了解外汇与外汇汇率的概念及 其种类；
第二：理解和掌握决定影响外汇汇率变动的 因素，以及汇率变动对经济的影响；
第三：熟悉和理解西方汇率理论的基本框架 和内容。
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§3.1 外汇与汇率概述• 按交易对象划分：– 同业汇率(inter-bank rate)：指银行同业之间使用。即中间 价。
– 商人汇率(commercial rate)：指银行对非银行客户时使用。 即买入价和卖出价。
• ⑥按换算标准划分：
– 基础汇率(basic rate)：一国货币同关键货币的比价。 – 套算汇率(cross rate)：又称交叉汇率。即两国货币汇率通
国际金融英文版PPT CH3
Spot Exchange Market and Exchange Rate Quotations
The spot exchange market is a market that deals in foreign exchange for immediate delivery. Immediate delivery in foreign currencies usually means within two business days.
A spot exchange rate is the current market price, the rate at which a foreign exchange dealer converts one currency into another currency on a particular day.
Small- to medium-size banks are not market makers in the interbank market. They buy from and sell to larger banks to offset retail transactions with their own customers.
American quote is the dollar per currency quote, i.e. the price of other currencies in terms of the dollar. Example: US$ 1.57 = ￡1 US$ 1.35 = €1
Hale Waihona Puke European quote is the currencies per dollar quote, i.e. the price of the dollar in terms of the other currencies. Example: A$ 1.02 = US$ 1 € 0.74 = US$ 1
国际金融chapter3 foreign exchange marketPPT课件
The spot market accounts for just under one-third of daily turnover
1. About $280 billion - World Federation of Exchanges aggregate 2006 2. About $87 billion - World Federation of Exchanges 2006 3. Based on world population of 6.6 billion - US Census Bureau 4. About $48 trillion - World Bank 2006.
e.g. USD 0.1323/ RMB • Dollar quotation：Use the dollar as the
basic currency.
An exchange rate
• The spot exchange rate
– The price of “immediate” exchange.(exchange or delivery in two working days after the exchange is agreed)
– Direct quote - the number of units of domestic currency for one unit of foreign currency.
e.g. RMB 7.5608/USD
– Indirect quote - the number of units of foreign currency for one unit of domestic currency.
（二）An exchange rate
1. About $280 billion - World Federation of Exchanges aggregate 2006 2. About $87 billion - World Federation of Exchanges 2006 3. Based on world population of 6.6 billion - US Census Bureau 4. About $48 trillion - World Bank 2006.
e.g. USD 0.1323/ RMB • Dollar quotation：Use the dollar as the
basic currency.
An exchange rate
• The spot exchange rate
– The price of “immediate” exchange.(exchange or delivery in two working days after the exchange is agreed)
– Direct quote - the number of units of domestic currency for one unit of foreign currency.
e.g. RMB 7.5608/USD
– Indirect quote - the number of units of foreign currency for one unit of domestic currency.
（二）An exchange rate
国际金融 托马斯.A.普格尔 第三章ppt
expected ≡ uncertain → risk
International Investment without Cover
eex
1/eex
d. The formula of the expected uncovered interest differential (EUD) EUD = (1 + if)eex/e - (1 + i) where eex is the expected future spot exchange rate e. Approximated formula:
d. Illustrating CIA by Lake diagram and examples: suppose you are an American
As an American: • If CD>0, you go anticlockwise Example: Given iUK=.04, iUS=.03, e=$2/GBP1, f=$2/GBP1, CD=? • If CD<0, you go clockwise Example: Given: iUK=.04, iUS=.03, e=$2/GBP, annual forward rate=$1.96/GBP, CD = ? What is the pressure from this arbitrage: Less GBP in circulation → iUK↑ More $ in circulation → iUS↓ Buy $ spot → e ↓ sell $ forward → f ↑ Until CD = 0
EUD=0 OR [(eex – e)/e]+ if = I The expected return on foreign currency investment equals the return on domestic currency investment Approximately: At parity, The expected appreciation on the foreign currency equals interest rate difference but with opposite sign
International Investment without Cover
eex
1/eex
d. The formula of the expected uncovered interest differential (EUD) EUD = (1 + if)eex/e - (1 + i) where eex is the expected future spot exchange rate e. Approximated formula:
d. Illustrating CIA by Lake diagram and examples: suppose you are an American
As an American: • If CD>0, you go anticlockwise Example: Given iUK=.04, iUS=.03, e=$2/GBP1, f=$2/GBP1, CD=? • If CD<0, you go clockwise Example: Given: iUK=.04, iUS=.03, e=$2/GBP, annual forward rate=$1.96/GBP, CD = ? What is the pressure from this arbitrage: Less GBP in circulation → iUK↑ More $ in circulation → iUS↓ Buy $ spot → e ↓ sell $ forward → f ↑ Until CD = 0
EUD=0 OR [(eex – e)/e]+ if = I The expected return on foreign currency investment equals the return on domestic currency investment Approximately: At parity, The expected appreciation on the foreign currency equals interest rate difference but with opposite sign
中职教育-国际金融英语课件：Unit 3 The World Bank group.ppt
4. Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) Est.1988, promotes foreign direct investment in developing countries
5. International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) Est. 1966, facilitating the settlement of investment disputes between governments and foreign investors
4. Saving Children—reduce the under 5 mortality rate.
Millennium Development Goals
5. Caring for Mothers—reduce the maternal mortality rate.
6. Combating Diseases—such as AIDS/HIV, Tuberculosis, malaria, and other major diseases.
2. Educating All Children—ensure that all children complete primary education.
3. Empowering Women—eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education.
Japan, UK, and US
Board of Governors
Made of up representatives from member countries Typically, the representatives are ministers of finance or ministers of development.
5. International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) Est. 1966, facilitating the settlement of investment disputes between governments and foreign investors
4. Saving Children—reduce the under 5 mortality rate.
Millennium Development Goals
5. Caring for Mothers—reduce the maternal mortality rate.
6. Combating Diseases—such as AIDS/HIV, Tuberculosis, malaria, and other major diseases.
2. Educating All Children—ensure that all children complete primary education.
3. Empowering Women—eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education.
Japan, UK, and US
Board of Governors
Made of up representatives from member countries Typically, the representatives are ministers of finance or ministers of development.
第三章下：购买力平价(国际金融课件)
internationaltradedepartmenttjufe2k6slide1524建立在购买力平价基础之上的长期汇率模型建立在购买力平价基础之上的长期汇率模型各国之间的利率差异等于各国预期通货膨胀率之差155internationaltradedepartmenttjufe2k6slide1525建立在购买力平价基础之上的长期汇率模型建立在购买力平价基础之上的长期汇率模型费雪效应若一国的预期通货膨胀率上升最终会导致该国货币存款利率的同比例上升图151表明在时点t处美国货币供给突然加速
对大宗交易而言，交易成本是微不足道的，所以常常忽略不计。
（3）套利活动的存在。 ① 套利（Arbitrage）：指买进或卖出某物（商品或证券）以利 用差价获取无风险利润的过程。也称为无风险套利。 套利活动的两个特点：不动用自有资金；以买卖差价作为收益。
② 套利定价原理：指所有商品（包括证券）都得到合理定价， 以至于不存在无风险套利机会。此原理是金融学最重要的方法 之一。
第三章 购买力平价
一、概述
研究汇率与商品价格、物价水平之间的关系。有关研究最早可 以追溯到16世纪，西班牙萨拉卡门学院对此做出了较大的贡献。 1918年，瑞典经济学家古斯塔夫·卡塞尔（Gustav Cassel）系统 地提出了“购买力平价”理论，第一次清楚地分析了汇率与价格 的关系。因此，人们公认购买力平价理论是由卡塞尔提出并完善 的。
International Trade Department, TJUFE 2K6
Slide 15-24
建立在购买力平价基础之上的长期汇率模型
各国之间的利率差异等于各国预期通货膨胀率 之差
(15-5)
R$ - R€ = eUS - e
International Trade Department, TJUFE 2K6
对大宗交易而言，交易成本是微不足道的，所以常常忽略不计。
（3）套利活动的存在。 ① 套利（Arbitrage）：指买进或卖出某物（商品或证券）以利 用差价获取无风险利润的过程。也称为无风险套利。 套利活动的两个特点：不动用自有资金；以买卖差价作为收益。
② 套利定价原理：指所有商品（包括证券）都得到合理定价， 以至于不存在无风险套利机会。此原理是金融学最重要的方法 之一。
第三章 购买力平价
一、概述
研究汇率与商品价格、物价水平之间的关系。有关研究最早可 以追溯到16世纪，西班牙萨拉卡门学院对此做出了较大的贡献。 1918年，瑞典经济学家古斯塔夫·卡塞尔（Gustav Cassel）系统 地提出了“购买力平价”理论，第一次清楚地分析了汇率与价格 的关系。因此，人们公认购买力平价理论是由卡塞尔提出并完善 的。
International Trade Department, TJUFE 2K6
Slide 15-24
建立在购买力平价基础之上的长期汇率模型
各国之间的利率差异等于各国预期通货膨胀率 之差
(15-5)
R$ - R€ = eUS - e
International Trade Department, TJUFE 2K6
国际金融英文课件3
Introduction to Foreign Exchange Market
An international network of dealers - It consists of a limited number of major dealer institutions that are particularly active in foreign exchange, trading with customers and (more often ) with each other. Most are commercial banks and investment banks - Although geographically dispersed in numerous financial centres around the world, these dealer institutions are linked to each other through telephones, computers, and other electronic means.
Introduction to Foreign Exchange Market
The World's Largest Market It is by far the largest and most liquid market in the world. The estimated worldwide turnover of reporting dealers, at around $2 trillion a day (in 2004). – 7 times the level of turnover in the US Government securities market. The breadth, depth, and liquidity of the market are truly impressive. ($200 ~ $500 million per individual trade; 20 times a minute, 18,000 changes per day) The five major centers of Forex trading, are based in London, New York, Zurich, Frankfurt and Tokyo.
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Source: Bank for International Settlements (December 2007)
2008 All copy rights reserved.
3-7
Market Size
• As of Apr.2010, average daily turnover is estimated at $3.98 trillion.
2008 All copy rights reserved.
√
3-17
Direct vs. Indirect Quotation
• Direct Quotation: Rates quoted in terms of a variable number of home currency per fixed foreign currency unit. rmb6.8406/$ • Vice Versa $0.1462/rmb
CHAPTER 3
THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
2008 All copy rights reserved.
3-2
Foreign Exchange
• Foreign exchange is the act of trading different nations’ moneys.
2008 All copy rights reserved.
3-11
Top 10 currency traders
Rank: 2008 Name Volume:20che Bank UBS AG Barclays Capital
15.64% 10.59% 10.75%
2008 All copy rights reserved.
3-15
Exchange Rates
An exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another currency. · Two currencies involved · Timing of delivery 1. Spot 2. Forward (An other rate is the future spot rate.)
86.3% 37.0% 16.5%
4
5 6 7
Pound sterling
Swiss franc Australian dollar Canadian dollar
GBP (£ )
CHF (Fr) AUD ($) CAD ($)
12.90%
6.40% 7.60% 5.30%
15.0%
6.8% 6.7% 4.2%
2008 All copy rights reserved.
3-5
Geographical Dispersion
2008 All copy rights reserved.
3-6
Market Size
Main FX market average daily turnover, 1988 - 2007, in billions of USD
Instruct to take dollars from its demand deposit account and pay to the U.S. producer
2008 All copy rights reserved.
3-14
Inter-bank Market
Suppose that bank in London may be unwilling to continue holding the pounds… • The inter-bank market accounts for more than 40% of all transactions. • Participants in inter-bank market: commercial banks and investment banks
2.8%
2.8%
2.2%
1.9% 18.1% 200%
Source: Bank for International Settlements
2008 All copy rights reserved.
3-10
Most traded currencies
Source: Bank for International Settlements , 2010
• Active participants in retail part of the market: smaller investment banks, multi-national corporations, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, other institutional investors
3-13
Retail Markets
British firm
Ask its bank to convert pounds into dollars
A jet plane
U.S. producer
Transfer dollars to its account
Bank in London
Bank in New York
√
3-3
Foreign Exchange Market
The foreign exchange market is the market in which national moneys are traded for other national moneys.
24-hour market / geographic dispersion Enormous trading volumes ($3.2 trillion on Forex vs. $100 billion on NY Stock Market per day,2007) Most trading involves U.S. dollars Retail vs. Interbank part of the market
21.70% 15.80% 9.12%
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5 6 7 8 9 10
Citibank
Royal Bank of Scotland JP Morgan HSBC Lehman Brothers Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley
8.88%
6.20% 6.43% 6.26% --4.13% 3.64%
2008 All copy rights reserved.
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Exchange Rates
• As a U.S. dollar price of the other currency. $1.7621/£ $0.1462/rmb • As the price of the U.S. dollar in units of the other currency. £ 0.5675/$ rmb6.8406/$ • The reciprocals of each other.
2008 All copy rights reserved.
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Spot Exchange Rate
Date: 2008/09/10
Currency Name GBP HKD USD CHF JPY CAD AUD EUR Buying Rate 1200.46 87.53 682.69 603.48 6.3568 638 549.56 962.95 Cash Buying Rate 1175.15 86.83 677.22 590.75 6.2228 624.55 537.97 942.65 Selling Rate 1210.1 87.86 685.43 608.32 6.4079 643.13 553.97 970.68 Middle Rate 1203.84 87.7 684.06 n.a. 6.3853 n.a. n.a. 965.07
2008 All copy rights reserved.
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Market Size
Source: Bank for International Settlements ,2010
2008 All copy rights reserved.
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Most traded currencies
Rank Currency
2008 All copy rights reserved.
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24-Hour Market
In Beijing Time, the following markets are most active in FX trading
• • • • • • • Sidney 7:00-12:00 Tokyo 8:00-14:00 Hong Kong/Singapore 9:00-16:00 Frankfurt Summer 14:00-23:00 Winter15:00-0:00 London Summer 15:00-23:30 Winter 16:00-0:30 New York Summer 20:30-3:00 Winter 21:30-4:00 West Coast Summer 21:30-4:00 Winter 22:30-5:00
• Retail parts vs. Interbank parts
EUR/USD： 0.7150/0.7153 for interbank market 0.7100/0.7200 for banknotes or travelers' checks
2008 All copy rights reserved.