汇率影响因素基于中美的分析案例
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(e means exchange rate, for a country is a direct quotation) or e = P / Pf
%e = %P - %Pf
(the difference between the two countries’ inflation rate) Real exchange rate = nominal exchange rate × CPIUS / CPIC
CPIUS / CPIC
1.20 1.06 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.14 1.15 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.h16
实际汇率= 名义汇率 *CPIUS/CPI C
名义 汇率
10.38
8.62
8.83
8.35
8.36
8.31
8.29
8.29
8.48
8.28
h
4
exchange rate with the base of 1994
年份
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CPIUS/CPIC
1.00 0.88 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.88 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.96
real life is against Low of one price
not meet
Goods monopoly
the relative
oligopoly market behavior
purchasing power parity?
the difference between the official inflation measure
China’s economical situation purchasing power parity Interest rate parity theory
The current account balance
Other factors
h
2
China’s economical situation
LOGOWhat factors should be taken into account in determining the “ Add your company slogan ” equilibrium RMB/Dollar exchange rate?
Why?
1
factors effecting exchange rates
8.79
8.28
9.04
8.28
9.24wenku.baidu.com
8.28
9.46
8.28
9.56
8.28
9.44
8.28
9.39
8.10
9.35
7.94
8.73
7.56
6
Contrast
10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00
实际汇率 名义汇率
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
5
Compared with the rate with year 1997 as basis
年份
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
美国CPI （以1997 年为基年）
中国CPI （以1997 年为基年）
CPI差值 （∏c∏us ）
等式左 边数据
(Et-Et1)/Et-1
21.54
14.27
-3.21
5.35
-0.44
0.51
-0.29
-2.36
-0.13
-3.61
-0.01
-2.96
0.00
-2.15
-0.02
-2.38
0.00
-1.08
0.00
1.24
-0.01
-1.59
-2.15
-1.63
-2.05
92.34 94.95 97.76 100.00 101.56 103.80 107.29 110.34 112.09 114.64 117.69 121.68 125.61 129.18
76.70 89.82 97.28 100.00 99.20 97.81 98.20 98.89 98.10 99.28 103.15 105.00 106.68 111.81
25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 -10.00
相对购买力平价公式数据
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 CPI差值（∏c-∏us ） 等式左边数据((Et-Et-1)/Et-1)
15
10
5
0
时间 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
-5
-10
-15
average labour productivity7.4%
h
3
purchasing power parity
e = Pa / Pb
1.95
h -5.07
实际汇率= 名义汇率 *CPIus/C PIc
名义汇率
8.62
8.62
7.33
8.35
6.94
8.31
6.89
8.29
7.04
8.28
7.30
8.28
7.51
8.28
7.67
8.28
7.86
8.28
7.94
8.28
7.85
8.28
7.80
8.10
7.77
7.94
7.26
7.56
Short-term price stickiness
h
8
Interest rate parity theory
Close relationship
F and I - I * is proportional
Exchange rate
interest rate
h
9
2003—2009中、没贷款利率（季度平均）%
12.00 10.00
8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00
名义汇率与以1997年为基期的实际汇率 年份 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
实际汇率=名义汇率*CPIUSh/CPIC
名义汇率
7
analysis
%e = %P - %Pf
(the difference between the two countries’ inflation rate) Real exchange rate = nominal exchange rate × CPIUS / CPIC
CPIUS / CPIC
1.20 1.06 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.14 1.15 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.h16
实际汇率= 名义汇率 *CPIUS/CPI C
名义 汇率
10.38
8.62
8.83
8.35
8.36
8.31
8.29
8.29
8.48
8.28
h
4
exchange rate with the base of 1994
年份
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CPIUS/CPIC
1.00 0.88 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.88 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.96
real life is against Low of one price
not meet
Goods monopoly
the relative
oligopoly market behavior
purchasing power parity?
the difference between the official inflation measure
China’s economical situation purchasing power parity Interest rate parity theory
The current account balance
Other factors
h
2
China’s economical situation
LOGOWhat factors should be taken into account in determining the “ Add your company slogan ” equilibrium RMB/Dollar exchange rate?
Why?
1
factors effecting exchange rates
8.79
8.28
9.04
8.28
9.24wenku.baidu.com
8.28
9.46
8.28
9.56
8.28
9.44
8.28
9.39
8.10
9.35
7.94
8.73
7.56
6
Contrast
10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00
实际汇率 名义汇率
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
5
Compared with the rate with year 1997 as basis
年份
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
美国CPI （以1997 年为基年）
中国CPI （以1997 年为基年）
CPI差值 （∏c∏us ）
等式左 边数据
(Et-Et1)/Et-1
21.54
14.27
-3.21
5.35
-0.44
0.51
-0.29
-2.36
-0.13
-3.61
-0.01
-2.96
0.00
-2.15
-0.02
-2.38
0.00
-1.08
0.00
1.24
-0.01
-1.59
-2.15
-1.63
-2.05
92.34 94.95 97.76 100.00 101.56 103.80 107.29 110.34 112.09 114.64 117.69 121.68 125.61 129.18
76.70 89.82 97.28 100.00 99.20 97.81 98.20 98.89 98.10 99.28 103.15 105.00 106.68 111.81
25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 -10.00
相对购买力平价公式数据
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 CPI差值（∏c-∏us ） 等式左边数据((Et-Et-1)/Et-1)
15
10
5
0
时间 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
-5
-10
-15
average labour productivity7.4%
h
3
purchasing power parity
e = Pa / Pb
1.95
h -5.07
实际汇率= 名义汇率 *CPIus/C PIc
名义汇率
8.62
8.62
7.33
8.35
6.94
8.31
6.89
8.29
7.04
8.28
7.30
8.28
7.51
8.28
7.67
8.28
7.86
8.28
7.94
8.28
7.85
8.28
7.80
8.10
7.77
7.94
7.26
7.56
Short-term price stickiness
h
8
Interest rate parity theory
Close relationship
F and I - I * is proportional
Exchange rate
interest rate
h
9
2003—2009中、没贷款利率（季度平均）%
12.00 10.00
8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00
名义汇率与以1997年为基期的实际汇率 年份 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
实际汇率=名义汇率*CPIUSh/CPIC
名义汇率
7
analysis