麦肯锡公共电视运营模式(英文版)

2
CHALLENGES: ONLY GROWTH AREAS ARE UNRELATED BUSINESS AND UNDERWRITING
Total PTV system revenue,* 1990 and 2001 $ Millions
Annual Growth % $1.88 billion 1990-2001
2001 Local Station Economy
2001 Station Assessment
2001 National Program Funding
Current size
$1.93 Billion
$107 M
$450 Million
Historical growth in revenues (1990-2001)
450 Gross revenues: 0.1%*
400
350
300 Fundraising costs: 1.0%
250
200
$17 million
150
lost income
100
Net membership revenues: -0.9%
50
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
** Federal agency grants for 2001 are estimated (assumed 5% growth over 2000)
Source: AFR; federal reports; PBS annual reports
3
CHALLENGES: HISTORICALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS GROWN THROUGH DIVERSIFICATION – NOW ALL REVENUE SOURCES ARE THREATENED
medium/large community station
100%= $10.7 million
15% revenue
Other
866
loss
Educ. / outreach
453
$9.1 million
Membership
866
2,120
408
Acquisition & scheduling
Broadcast ops
Period
Flat or declining source(s)
1992-1994 CPB appropriation
Future Outlook
Compensating source(s)
State and local government Underwriting
1995-1996 CPB appropriation
Which performance improvement opportunities offer the most promise?
How should we launch these initiatives and effect lasting change?
1
CHALLENGES: BOTH STATION ECONOMIES AND PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT ARE AT-RISK
public television on a more sound economic footing and ensure its future success
How severe and long lasting are the financial pressures on the system?
* All growth rates are compound annual growth rates.
Source: AFRs; Bureau of Labor Statistics
5
CHALLENGES: DECLINES WILL CONTINUE IN NET MEMBER SUPPORT
CPB appropriation State and local government Underwriting
2000-2002 Net member revenue Underwriting
CPB appropriation
2003 -
Net member revenue Underwriting State and local funding CPB appropration
Net member revenue
State and local government Underwriting
1996-1998 CPB appropriation
State and local government
1999-2000 Net member revenue
Pledge, which is the engine of new member acquisition, has seen rising costs relative to new member yield in line with declining productivity trends outside PTV
Stations expense, 1990 and 2001 Percent
100% = $1.19 billion
Underwriting
1.4
Program information
5.7
Fundraising
11.4
100% =
Annual Growth Rate
$1.80 billion 1990-2001
$1.25 billion 62.9 104.2 128.6 205.6
230.5
249.4
273.3
259.6
6.6
347.6
4.9
330.5
3.3
328.5
2.5
374.0
2.9
1990
2001
* Excludes capital funding for digital upgrade, additional capital fundraising, endowment, and interest
Philanthropic Environment
With the number of nonprofits growing twice as fast as real household charitable giving, stations will be hard pressed to grow their share of members’ wallets
CONFIDENTIAL
Developing a Sustainable Economic Model for Public Television
May 29, 2003
PROJECT ASPIRATIONS AND KEY QUESTIONS
Identify and drive major changes that will put
Source: “Donor Centrics Comparison Report for Public Television, December 2000;” DMA Factbook 2001; Giving USA
2002
6
CHALLENGES: STATION HAVE MET THESE CHALLENGES IN THE PAST BY CONTROLLING COSTS ACROSS THE BOARD
Underwriting
Website
76
Prog. production
1,503
1,156 328 1,061
1,852
1,315
915
315Biblioteka 76669General & administrative
3,157
2,718
Station cost-cutting scenario:
• Reduce headcount by 26%,
3.5 % per year* 3.1 % per year**
Prospects for Decline in real terms
future revenue due to falling net
growth
member revenues
A system decision
5.4 % per year
Renewin g
Member
Net renewal revenue will not offset declining acquisition
• Stations already have among the nonprofit sector’s highest
renewal rates
• Renewal mail’s productivity is flat to declining • Declining ratings increase stations’ challenge
Source: AFR; PBS annual report, 2001
7
CHALLENGES: REVENUE DECREASES WILL PROMPT REPEATED PAINFUL COST REDUCTIONS
Illustrative expense budget for an average
2.2
7.9
5.3
3.3
11.4
3.8
Management and general