经济学人中英对照Brave new words

Central banks

各国央行

Brave new words

大胆新言论

Rich-world central banks explore more doveish strategies

发达国家央行探索更加温和的政策

FOR four years rich-world central banks have done their best to rejuvenate economies with conventional and unconventional monetary policy. Now, with short-term interest rates still stuck near zero and their balance-sheets stuffed with government bonds, the central banks of America, Britain and Japan are experimenting with a shift in approach: coupling monetary action with commitments designed to alter the public’s expectati ons of interest rates, inflation and the economy. The sense of change is reinforced by the prospect of new leaders at the Japanese and British central banks, and the increasing prominence of several doves at America’s.

4年来，发达国家央行为经济复苏想尽了一切办法，常规和非常规货币政策你方唱罢我登场。时至今日，短期利率依然近乎于零，资产负债表上依然满是政府债券。美国、英国和日本央行正在尝试改变路线：为了改变公众对于利率、通胀和经济前景的预期，他们做出一系列承诺，并将货币政策与承诺相结合。日本和英国央行新领导人即将走马上任，加上美国几位鸽派人物的声音日益突出，使改变即将到来的感觉愈发强烈。

A more doveish stance would entail tolerating higher inflation, at least temporarily, in pursuit of higher output: a significant shift given the primacy central banks have long given to low inflation. Bond investors have begun to price in higher inflation (see chart). But just how far each central bank is prepared to go is still uncertain.

为了提高产值，更加温和的政策意味着必须要容忍更高水平的通胀，至少短期内会是如此：央行长期以来将低通胀率视为第一要务的政策即将迎来重大改变。一些大胆的投资人已经开始以更高的通胀率定价（见图）。但是各国央行的新政力度到底有多大尚不得而知。

In Japan, Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, has used the term “regime change” to describe the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ’s) agreement to raise its inflation targe t to 2% from 1%, and pursue it with unlimited asset purchases. There are expectations for even more forceful action once Masaaki Shirakawa, the current governor, and his two deputies depart on March 19th. Under Mr Shirakawa the BoJ bought lots more assets, but critics said he undercut the positive impact by repeatedly saying they were not enough to end deflation and by restricting the maturity of bonds the bank bought.

日本首相安倍晋三曾以“制度改革”一词来形容日本央行的政策变化。日本央行同意将通胀目标从1%提高到2%，并表示为了实现这一目标资产收购将不设上限。有人预期现任行长白川方明和两位副行长3月19日离任之后，会有力度更大的政策出台。白川在任期间日本央行购入了大量资产，但是有人批评到，由于白川经常强调购入的资产数量仍不足以结束通货紧缩，而且对买入债券的期限种类

严加限制，使一系列政策的积极影响大打折扣。

Mr Abe is expected to nominate Mr Shirakawa’s successor by the end of February. The three front-runners, in ascending order of doveishness, are Toshiro Muto, Haruhiko Kuroda and Kazumasa Iwata. The first two are former finance-ministry officials; Mr Muto and Mr Iwata are former deputy BoJ governors. The latter may be Mr Abe’s favoured choice, although Mr Kuroda, head of the Asian Development Bank, is considered to have the most global experience. In a recent interview with The Economist, he said the bank must do “anything and everything” to hit its 2% target.

据推测安倍晋三将会在二月底指定人选接替白川方明。按温和程度排名，有可能接替他的三名人选为：武藤敏郎、黑田东彦和岩田一政。前两人曾任日本财政部官员；武藤和岩田曾经就职于日本央行。尽管现为亚洲开发银行行长的黑田东彦对国际事务更具经验，但岩田可能才是安倍的中意人选。最近接受《经济学人》采访时，黑田表示日本央行必须“动用一切手段”确保通胀率2%的目标得以实现。

But putting deflation-fighters at the helm may not overcome the bank’s inhere nt conservatism. Minutes of the bank’s January policy-board meeting showed some members had misgivings about their ability to hit the 2% target. Masamichi Adachi of J.P. Morgan says the new leaders may fail to deliver the aggressive easing that foreign investors seem to expect.

但是，把“通缩战士”送上领导岗位不见得就能改变日本央行固有的保守主义。该行二月曾召开政策委员会会议，会议纪要显示，他们中的一些成员对于银行是否有能力实现通胀2%的目标心存疑虑。J.P.摩根的正道安达表示，日本央行的新领导人可能不会像国外投资者期望的那样推出激进的宽松政策。

Mark Carney, who will become governor of the Bank of England in July, has fuelled hints of a regime change of his own, saying that central banks should regularly review how they achieve their policy goals and that in exceptional circumstances there might be a case for temporarily targeting nominal GDP(ie, output unadjusted for inflation). But he has yet to endorse that as an alternative. At a parliamentary committee on February 7th, he indicated support for simply allowing inflation to stay above target for an extended period.

马克·卡尼将于6月出任英国央行行长，他曾强烈暗示自己也会推行“制度改革”，他说各国央行应该定期检测政策目标的执行进度，在特殊情况下，可能指的就是暂时以名义GDP为标准（未将通胀计算在内的生产总值）。但他并未明确表示这就是他要采取的改革措施。在2月7日的议会委员会上，他表示支持简单直接的政策，在未来一段时间内继续允许通胀水平超过预期目标。

Adam Posen, a former member of the bank’s monetary-policy committee who now heads the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank, says Mr Carney’s background does not suggest a radical break. Both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, which Mr Carney now heads, target 2% inflation but allow temporary deviations in s upport of growth. Inflation has run above the BoE’s 2% target for most of the past eight years. At its last meeting on February 7th the bank’s monetary-policy committee said it may continue to do so for two more years, yet a third of its members, including Sir Mervyn King, the outgoing governor, voted for more quantitative easing, or QE.

亚当·柏森，前任英国央行货币政策委员会成员，现为智库机构“彼得森国际经济研究所”所长。他说从卡尼的背景资历来看，他大概不会采取什么激进措施。卡尼任行长的英国央行和加拿大央行都把