第七讲 项目风险管理

Negative Risk (1960S-1970S)
Risk is uncertainty that have a Negative Or positive effect on meeting project objectives
风险的属性
certain Risk Uncertain
f (probability, impact)
风险优先 级和整合
风险 分析
可能性 与影响
组织和培训
风险应对
论证后的风 险应对计划 最佳实 施方法 风险 应对工具 最佳 选择
制定风险 应对战略
风险应对手段 的选择和分析
实施风 险应对计划
风险监控 和报告
修订最高 风险的报告
状态 报告
其他步 骤的反馈
风险监控
Risk management planning
Project Risk Management
Art Or Science?
学习内容


学习 提示
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
7.
风险与风险管理 的含义 项目风险管理过 程 风险管理计划 风险识别 定性的风险分析 定量的风险分析 风险反应计划 风险的监督与控 制 软件的应用

学习重点 学习难点
项目风险管理 是在项目生命期内，为了最大限度地 满足项目目标，识别、分析风险并 做出相应反应的艺术和科学
风险管理是对项目管理过程中如何处理 风险事件的决策和控制过程
Risk preference
Utility
Risk-averse Risk neutral the amount of satisfaction or pleasure received from a potential payoff Risk seeking
3.52 3.55 3.74
3.45 3.14 3.22
3.25 3.03 3.20
3.37 3.50 3.97
Quality Human resources
2.91 3.18
3.22 3.20
3.53 2.87 3.01
2.88 2.93
3.21 2.75 2.91
3.26 3.18
3.48 2.76 3.33
The Risk Register

A risk register is a document that contains results of various risk management process, often displayed in a table or spreadsheet format. It is a tool for documenting potential risk events and related information。



方法论：项目中的风险管 理怎样被执行？可以得到 的并切实可行的工具和数 据资源是什么? 角色和责任：谁是执行特 定任务并对风险管理提供 可交付性成果的个人或群 体？ 预算和进度：执行与与风 险相关的进度和估计的成 本是多少？
Topic addressed in a risk management plan
Cost exceed potential benefit
goals
Risk management is an investment -there are cost associated with It.
principle
The major process involved in risk management
KEY : 1= Lowest Maturity rating
Engineering/c onstruction
5=Highest Maturity Rating
Hi-Tech manufacturin g
telecommunic Information ations systems
Scope Time Cost

1. Tools and techniques 2. The risk register
项目风险管理计划 项目计划信息： 工作分解结构：项目的产品描述、项目的工期和成本估计 、资源规划、采购计划、假设前提和限制条件；
风险类别 历史资料：项目文档、公开发表的资料、项目团队 成员的知识和经验 访谈法 SWOT 检查表法 假设前提分析 图示技术
风险管理计划 风险评估
项目风险管理过程

1. 2.

What risk is
A general definition (1980S1990S)
A basic dictionary definition says that risk is “the possibility of loss or injury”
f (threat insurance chance)
Project risk management

Project risk management is the art and science of identifying, analyzing, and responding to risk throughout the life of a project and in the best interest of meeting the project objectives
communicat 3.53 ion risk procuremen t 2.93 3.33
It is important to note that:
depend •nature of the project, s •The experience of the project team, •constrains imposed on both Minimizing potential negative risk While maximizing potential positive risk
Potential payoff
决策过程的三种规范
确定状态
风险
不确定性
What’s the difference betwe the crisis management and the risk management
Project management maturity by industry group and knowledge area
风险管理计划编制 就是决定采用何种 方法进行风险管理 活动并制定相应计 划管理过程。
风险管理计划是 管理整个项目生 命期中的风险程 序性文件
Topic addressed in a risk management plan
1.
2.
3.
Methodology: how will risk management be performed on this project? What tools and data resources are available and applicable？ Roles and responsibilities: who are the individuals responsible for implementing specific tasks and providing deliverables related to risk management？ Budget and schedule: what are the estimated cost and schedules for performing risk related activities？
Risk Identi ficati on
Identifying risk is the process of understanding what potential events might hurt or enhance a particular project。 风险识别是了解可能损害和增 强特定项目效益的潜在风险事 件的过程。
风险监督 与管理
识别风险 风险的定性 和定量分析 编制风险 应对计划
谢
谢！
风险管理流程
风险管理
反馈线中： 虚线表示存在反馈 实线表示可能存在反馈
风险规划
风险评估
风险应对
风险监控
风险识别
风险分析
反馈
风险文件
风险规划
计划/准备 过程
过程 计划和控制
风险评估
风险 识别
最高风险 的清单
风险 管理计划
风险事 件清单
A risk management plan: summarizes how risk management will be performed on a particular project
完善的风险计划
威胁与灾害
应急方案与缓和计划
损失 和破 坏
不完善的风险计划
威胁与灾害
应急方案与缓和计划
损失和 破坏
文件审核 头脑风暴 德尔菲法
Identified risks triggers
Suggestions for identifying risks



Brainstorming: is a techniques for by which a group attempts to generate ideas or find a solution for a specific problem by amassing ideas spontaneously and without judgment Delphi technique is to derive a consensus among a panel of experts who make predictions about future developments Interviewing: is a fact-finding technique for collecting information in face-to-face, phone, email, or instant-messaging discussions
1.
2.
3.
Risk categories: what are the main categories of risks that should be addressed on this project? Is there a risk breakdown structure for the project? Risk probability and impact: how will the probabilities and impacts of risk items be assessed? What scoring and interpretation methods will be used for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of risks Risk documenting: what reporting formats and process will be used for risk management activities.

பைடு நூலகம்
Risk management planning is the process of deciding how to approach and plan for risk management activities for a project。

A risk management plan documents the procedures for managing risk throughout the project



风险的种类：项目中涉及的 主要风险的种类有哪些？是 否编制出与WBS和OBS相应项 目风险结构分解图？ 风险的概率和影响：风险项 目发生的概率和对项目目标 产生的影响如何评价？什么 样的打分和解释的方法可用 来定性和定量地分析项目风 险？ 风险登记：采用怎样的报告 形式和流程用来登记风险管 理活动。
Project documents Corporate risk management policies Risk categories Lessons-learned reports from past project Templates for creating a risk management plan The risk tolerances of various stakeholders
编制风险 管理计划
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Risk management planning Risk identification Qualitative risk analysis Quantitative risk analysis Risk response planning Risk monitoring and control