《投资学》经典课件(英文) (12)
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• Scarcity 稀缺与贫穷 poverty • What is the real reason of poverty 贫穷的真正原因是
什么？
• Why investment mistake? • Controlled thinking 控制性思维 • Automatic thinking 自动思维
• Investment is the art of drawing sufficient conclusions from insufficient premises
• Entice 诱惑
stock
Gold
Future ---rap oil
Introduction
• The investment theme： uncertainty • Psychologist • mispricing
ShangHai Index
• Behavioral Biases
• Framing • Mental Accounting 心理账户
• Statman argues that mental accounting is consistent with some investors’ irrational preference for stocks with high cash dividends
• 生活是一门艺术，要在不充足的前提下得出充足的结 论。 ——塞缪尔·巴特勒（1835~1902）
• Life is the art of drawing sufficient conclusions from insufficient premises
• 投资是一门艺术，要在不充足的前提下得出充足的结 论。
• 稀缺心态 scarcity mindset • Scarcity captures the mind 稀缺俘获大脑 • 稀缺→潜意识subconscious • 稀缺的好处 benefit of scarcity • Focus bonus 专注红利 • Tunneling 管窥 • 隧道视野tunnel vision • Tunneling tax 管窥负担
The Behavioral Critique 行为学派的批评
• Behavioral finance • Irrational behavior • Information processing • Probability distribution • Virtually everyone agrees that if prices are right
• House money effect 赌场资金效应
• capital gains account 资本利得账户
A a coin toss with a payoff of $50 for tails
a gift of $50 that is bundled
B with a bet that imposes a loss of $50 if that coin toss comes up heads
• Which is better?
• Reflection effect 反射效应
A You lost 30,000$ in 100% B You get 40,000$ in 80%, lost
nothing in 20%
• Loss aversion
A a coin toss with a payoff of $5,000 for tails
Do you consider B as loss？
• Regret Avoidance 后悔规避 • Prospect Theory
• certain effect 确定效应
A You get 10,000$ in 100% B You get 20,000$ in 80%, lost
5,000$ in 20%
B Lost 5,000$ when coin toss comes up heads
• Will you join this game?
• Obsessed with small probability events 迷恋小概率赢的事件 • lottery 彩票 • Reference Dependence参照依赖
A You earn 1,000$ , while your friend earn 900$
B You earn 1,200$, while your friend earn 1,300$
• Which will you choose?
• Limits to Arbitrage • Fundamental Risk • Implementation Costs • Model Risk
• Disposition effect • 处置效应
Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance
• Dow Theory
• BOLL
• MACD, golden cross（60%）, death cross
• Moving average
• Trend • Week • month
• Tunnel mind of management公司经营的管窥心态 • Internal thought 内源性思考 • 内部噪声 inner noise • 前摄干扰 proactive interference • 我们的带宽 band width • Cognitive capacity 认知能力 • Executive control 执行控制力 • The ability to control yourself自我控制的能力
15 minutes line in future
• Date line
• 4-hour line
15 minutes line
• A drought poor village
• Somalia 索马里
• Central African Republic 中非共和国
Further discussion
百度文库
• Information Processing
• Forecasting Errors，Kahneman and Tversky • Memory bias • Overconfidence • Conservatism • Sample Size Neglect and Representativeness
什么？
• Why investment mistake? • Controlled thinking 控制性思维 • Automatic thinking 自动思维
• Investment is the art of drawing sufficient conclusions from insufficient premises
• Entice 诱惑
stock
Gold
Future ---rap oil
Introduction
• The investment theme： uncertainty • Psychologist • mispricing
ShangHai Index
• Behavioral Biases
• Framing • Mental Accounting 心理账户
• Statman argues that mental accounting is consistent with some investors’ irrational preference for stocks with high cash dividends
• 生活是一门艺术，要在不充足的前提下得出充足的结 论。 ——塞缪尔·巴特勒（1835~1902）
• Life is the art of drawing sufficient conclusions from insufficient premises
• 投资是一门艺术，要在不充足的前提下得出充足的结 论。
• 稀缺心态 scarcity mindset • Scarcity captures the mind 稀缺俘获大脑 • 稀缺→潜意识subconscious • 稀缺的好处 benefit of scarcity • Focus bonus 专注红利 • Tunneling 管窥 • 隧道视野tunnel vision • Tunneling tax 管窥负担
The Behavioral Critique 行为学派的批评
• Behavioral finance • Irrational behavior • Information processing • Probability distribution • Virtually everyone agrees that if prices are right
• House money effect 赌场资金效应
• capital gains account 资本利得账户
A a coin toss with a payoff of $50 for tails
a gift of $50 that is bundled
B with a bet that imposes a loss of $50 if that coin toss comes up heads
• Which is better?
• Reflection effect 反射效应
A You lost 30,000$ in 100% B You get 40,000$ in 80%, lost
nothing in 20%
• Loss aversion
A a coin toss with a payoff of $5,000 for tails
Do you consider B as loss？
• Regret Avoidance 后悔规避 • Prospect Theory
• certain effect 确定效应
A You get 10,000$ in 100% B You get 20,000$ in 80%, lost
5,000$ in 20%
B Lost 5,000$ when coin toss comes up heads
• Will you join this game?
• Obsessed with small probability events 迷恋小概率赢的事件 • lottery 彩票 • Reference Dependence参照依赖
A You earn 1,000$ , while your friend earn 900$
B You earn 1,200$, while your friend earn 1,300$
• Which will you choose?
• Limits to Arbitrage • Fundamental Risk • Implementation Costs • Model Risk
• Disposition effect • 处置效应
Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance
• Dow Theory
• BOLL
• MACD, golden cross（60%）, death cross
• Moving average
• Trend • Week • month
• Tunnel mind of management公司经营的管窥心态 • Internal thought 内源性思考 • 内部噪声 inner noise • 前摄干扰 proactive interference • 我们的带宽 band width • Cognitive capacity 认知能力 • Executive control 执行控制力 • The ability to control yourself自我控制的能力
15 minutes line in future
• Date line
• 4-hour line
15 minutes line
• A drought poor village
• Somalia 索马里
• Central African Republic 中非共和国
Further discussion
百度文库
• Information Processing
• Forecasting Errors，Kahneman and Tversky • Memory bias • Overconfidence • Conservatism • Sample Size Neglect and Representativeness