巴基斯坦经济展望

Transparent and predictable economic policies
Reform policies institutionalized, ensuring continuity
Fiscal and current account deficits lowered
Declining domestic and external debt burden
Source: SBP
Strong Demand for Credit by the Private Sector
PKR millions
500,000 450,000
Net Credit Flows to the Private Sector
400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000
Overall interest payment ratios have improved
Interest Payments (As % of Total Revenue)
60.0
51.2 47.0
42.4 39.3
40.0
28.8
24.7
23.3
20.0
0.0 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
Source: Ministry of Finance
Low inflation has provided monetary flexibility
Inflation (%) (Base year 2001 = 100)
10.0
9.3
9.0
8.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.7
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.0
3.6
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Confidence of the private sector restored
2003-2004
2004-2005
Textiles Manufacturing excl. Textiles Personal Consumer Loans Commerce Agriculture Construction Others
Rising Profitability Driving Growth Profits of Listed Companies
Overcoming macroeconomic challenges
• 1990s Macroeconomic Scenario
– Macroeconomic imbalances leading to buildup of public debt, deceleration of growth and investment, and stagnation in exports
Inflows of remittances surged
Improved external balance of payments
Increased foreign exchange reserves Exports growing at double-digit rates
Where Are We Now ?
513
309
347
553 392
624 404
721 461
791 519
902 591
979 690
200
0
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 200506(T)
Source: Ministry of Finance & CBR
22.7
17.2
Source: Center for Research on Poverty Reduction and Income Distribution (CRPRID)
-5.5
Foreign investment
Foreign Investment (US$ million) including Privatization Proceeds
3900 3600 3300 3000 2700 2400 2100 1800 1500 1200
900 600 300
0
3,495
1,677
820
922
403
543
475
182
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 (T)
Currency stabilization and buoyant stock market reflects optimism in the Pakistan economy
Exchange rate (PKR/USD)
Pakistan’s Karachi Stock Exchange Index - 100
Source: Ministry of Finance
Growing Revenue Collection helps boost up the economy
Increase Revenue Collection (Rs. Billion)
1000 800 600 400
CBR Revenue
469
65 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55
Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06
14,000 12,000 10,000
8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000
0
Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06
• 2000-onwards: Two-pronged Strategy followed
– Policies pursued to strengthen macroeconomic environment – Introducing wide-ranging structural reforms
Policies pursued to strengthen macroeconomic environment
Robust Economic Growth
7.0
Real GDP growth (% yoy change)
8
6
4.2
3.9
4
2
3.1 1.8
6.4 5.1
8.4 7.0
6.5
0
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2005-06
250
Source: KSE
200
ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱBanks
PKR (bn)
150
Fuel & Energy
100
Non
Energy
50
Non
Banks
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Profit After Tax (all sectors) except Fuel & Energy and Banks Fuel & Energy Banks
Fiscal Transparency
Capital Market Reforms
Financial Sector Reforms
Industry & Investment
Reforms
Deregulation &
Privatization
Pakistan’s economy has made significant progress during the last six years
3.5
3.1
3.0
2.0
1.0
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-
06(T)
Source: FBS
Month-wise Trend in Inflation
%
12
11.5 11 Supply Side Actions
(T)
(E)
Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics
Per Capita Income ($)
Per Capita Income Continues to Rise
800 736
700 652
600
582
526
501
503
500
400 1999-00
2000-01
Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics
Number of New Employment (in millions) -
2.23
2.96
5.54
Reduction in Poverty
Area
2000-01
2004-05
Changes (% Points)
Overall
32.1
25.4
-6.7
Rural
39.0
31.8
-7.2
Urban
Strong commitment to reform agenda
Fiscal Responsibility & Debt Limitation Act
Tax Reforms
Governance Reforms
Agriculture Sector Reforms
Major economic reforms
• Challenges of the 90s
– Improve macroeconomic environment – Bring debt situation under control – Restore investor confidence – Revive economic growth – Restore financial sovereignty
Others
Construction Agriculture Commerce
200,000 150,000 100,000
Personal Consumer Loans Manufacturing excl. Textiles
50,000
Textiles
(5200,0010-2000)2
2002-2003
Source: Bloomberg
Improving budgetary position
Overall fiscal deficit (% of GDP)
0
(1)
(2)
(3)
(2.4)
(4)
(3.7)
(3.3)
(3.8)
(5)
(4.3) (4.3)
(6) (7) (6.1)
(5.4)
(8)
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 200506(T)
• Reducing “Twin Deficits” • Keeping inflation low • Building foreign exchange reserves • Maintaining stability in exchange rate • Maintaining consistency and continuity in policies
PRESENTATION ON
The Present Economic Outlook for Pakistan
By
Ministry of Finance Government of Pakistan
April, 2006
Outline of Presentation Key Macroeconomic Challenges of the 1990s How did we address those challenges Where Are We Now? Where do we want to see Pakistan in the next five years Key Macroeconomic targets for the next five years New Challenges How to address new challenges Concluding remarks
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
New Jobs Created
Labour Force Survey
Employment (in millions)
FY 00
36.82
FY 02
39.05
FY 04
42.01
FY 06 (Q1)
47.55
Source: Labour Force Survey, FBS