罗宾斯《管理学(第9版)

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管理学-罗宾斯-9版-英文Robbinsfom901

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What Is Management?
The process of getting things done effectively and efficiently, with and through people.
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Management Roles Approach
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Which Approach Takes the Prize?
Functions ☑
1. Four Functions Approach 2. Management Roles Approach 3. Skills and Competencies
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Four Functions Approach
•Planning •Organizing •Leading •Controlling
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Integrating economic, environmental, and social opportunities into business strategies
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Managers Matter!
Employee productivity, loyalty, and engagement hinge on employee\manager relationship

罗宾斯《管理学》第九版

第一章管理与组织导论一、谁是管理者管理者是组织中这样的成员，他告诉别人该做什么以及怎么样去做。

管理者（manager）是这样的人，他们通过协调和监督其他人的活动达到组织目的。

管理者通常分为基层管理者、中层管理者和高层管理者。

二、什么是管理管理（management）通过协调和监督他人的活动，有效果和有效率地完成工作。

效率（efficiency）是指以尽可能少的投入获得尽可能多的产出。

效果通常指的是“正确地做事”，即不浪费资源。

,效果（effectiveness）通常指“做正确的事”，即所从事的工作和活动有助于组织达到其目标。

在成功的组织中高效率和高效果是相辅相成的。

三、管理者做什么1、管理职能（亨利.法尔约）。

2、管理角色（亨利.明茨伯格）。

3、管理技能（罗伯特.卡茨）。

技术技能：熟练完成特定工作所需要的特定领域的知识和技术。

人际技能：包括与单独的个人或群体中的其他成员和睦相处的能力。

概念技能：管理者对抽象、复杂情况进行思考和概念化的技能。

四、什么是组织组织（organization）是对人员的一种精心安排，以实现某些特定的目的。

\组织的三个特征：明确的目的、人员、精细的结构。

现在的组织更倾向于依靠灵活的工作安排、雇员工作团队、开放的沟通系统和供应商联盟。

第二章管理的昨天和今天一、！二、管理的历史背景两个重大事件：1776年，亚当.斯密发表《国富论》主张组织和社会将从劳动分工或工作专业化中获得经济利益。

工业革命，机械力代替了人力。

三、科学管理（1911年泰罗发表《科学管理原理》）四、一般行政管理理论（亨利.法尔约）五、;六、权变理论权变理论强调这样一个事实，因为组织不同，面对的情境不同，所以可能要求不同的管理方式。

七、当前的趋势和问题全球化、道德、劳动力多元化、创业精神（对机会的追求、创新、增长）、在电子领域中进行管理、知识管理和学习型组织、质量管理（TQM）质量管理受到不断改进和响应顾客需求与期望的驱动。

罗宾斯管理学第九版笔记(严格修订版)

第一章管理与组织导论一、谁是管理者？（1）管理者的定义管理者是这样的人，他通过协调和监督他人的活动达到组织目标。

他的工作不是取得个人成就，而是帮助他人完成任务。

管理者的工作可能意味着协调一个部门的工作，也可能意味着监督几个单独的个人,还可能包含一个团队的活动.(2）组织中管理人员的等级层次管理人员按层次分为基层管理者，中层管理者,高层管理者.1)基层管理者是最底层的管理人员，他们管理着非管理雇员所从事的工作，即生产产品和提供服务.2)中层管理者包括所有处于基层和高层之间的各个管理层次的管理者,这些管理者管理着基层管理者。

3)高层管理者是处于或接近组织顶层的管理人员，他们承担着制定广泛的组织决策、为整个组织制定计划和目标的责任.二、什么是管理？管理通过协调和监督他人的活动，有效率和有效果地完成工作。

管理活动强调效率和效果。

效率是指“正确地做事”，即不浪费资源,以尽可能少的投入获得尽可能多的产出;效果是指“做正确的事”，即所从事的工作和活动有助于组织达到其目标.效率注重过程，效果注重结果.因此，管理当局不能只是关注达到和实现组织目标，也就是关注效果，还要尽可能有效率地完成工作.三、管理者做什么？（1）管理的四个职能1）计划是指定义目标,制定战略以获取目标，以及制定计划和协调活动的过程。

2）组织是指安排工作以实现组织目标的职能。

它包括决定应该从事哪些任务，应该由谁来从事这些任务，这些任务怎么分类和归集，谁向谁报告，以及在哪一级作出决策的过程。

3）领导是指同别人一起或者通过别人去完成组织目标,包括激励下属，帮助解决群体冲突、影响工作中的个体或团队，选择最有效的沟通渠道等。

4）控制是指监控，比较，纠正。

为了保证达成目标和工作按照预定的轨道进展,管理者必须监控、评估工作绩效，实际的绩效必须与预先设定的目标进行比较，如果存在任何显著的偏差，管理当局的职责就是使工作绩效回到正常的工作轨道上来。

（2）明茨伯格的管理角色理论(09简述）管理角色是指特定的管理行为类型。

罗宾斯管理学9人力资源管理课件

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甄选过程将会产生四种可能结果
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n 经过大学四年
n 从思考中确立自我，从学习中寻求真理，从独立中体验自主，从计划中把握时间，从表达中锻炼口才，从交友中品味成熟，从实践中赢得价值，从兴趣中获取快乐，从追求中获得力量。
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第一项学习：自修之道
n 自学的能力，举一反三或无师自通的能力。
n 自学能力必须在大学期间开始培养。中学生在学习知识时更多的是追求“记住”知识，而大学生就应当要求自己“理解”知识并善于提出问题。
六、员工绩效管理
n 绩效评估的目的和作用
➢ 为确定管理人员的工作报酬提供依据 ➢ 为员工升迁调遣提供依据 ➢ 为管理人员的培训提供依据 ➢ 有利于改进工作绩效 ➢ 有利于促进组织内部的沟通
n 绩效评估的内容
➢ 贡献考评：考评管理人员对实现目标的贡献程度。 ➢ 能力考评：考评管理人员的现实能力和发展潜力。
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职业生涯成功要领
n 1．审慎地选择第一项职务 n 2．做好工作 n 3．展现正确的形象 n 4．了解权力结构 n 5．获得对组织资源的控制 n 6．保持可见度 n 7．不要在最初的职务上停留太久 n 8．找个导师 n 9．支持你的上司 n 10．考虑横向发展 n 11．持续革新你的技能 n 12．发展关系网

罗宾斯《管理学》第九版试题

罗宾斯《管理学》第九版试题罗宾斯《管理学》第九版试题Chapter 10 – Organizational Structure and DesignTrue/False QuestionsA MANAGER’S DILEMMA1. According to the boxed feature, ―A Manager’s Dilemma,‖ Nokia was once involved in industries rangingfrom paper to chemicals and rubber.True (moderate)2. According to the boxed feature, ―A Manager’s Dilemma,‖ Nokia has been competing in thetelecommunications industry since 1965.False (moderate)DEFINING ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE3. Organizational design is the organization's formal framework by which job tasks are divided, grouped, and coordinated.False (difficult)4. The concept of work specialization can be traced back a couple of centuries to Adam Smith's discussion ofdivision of labor.True (moderate)5. The degree to which tasks in an organization are divided into separate jobs is division of labor.True (moderate)6. Historically, many organizations have grouped work actions by function departmentalization.True (moderate)7. Grouping jobs on the basis of product or customer flow istermed customer departmentalization.False (moderate)8. Geographic departmentalization has greatly increased in importance as a result of today’s competitivebusiness environmentFalse (moderate)9. A group of individuals who are experts in various specialties and who work together is a cross-functional team.True (moderate)10. Authority is the individual's capacity to influence decisions.False (difficult)11. Authority is synonymous with responsibility.False (easy)12. Responsibility is the rights inherent in a managerial position.False (easy)13. A manager's span of control refers to the number of subordinates who can be effectively and efficientlysupervised.True (moderate)14. The classical view of unity of command suggests that subordinates should have only one superior to whom they report.True (easy)15. The trend in recent years has been toward smaller spans of control.False (easy)16. When decisions tend to be made at lower levels in anorganization, the organization is said to bedecentralized.True (moderate)17. Decentralization describes the degree to which decision making is concentrated at a single point in theorganization.False (moderate)18. In the last 35 years, there has been a trend of organizations moving toward increased decentralization.True (easy)19. Appropriate organizational structure depends on four variables: the organization's strategy, size, technology, and degree of environmental uncertainty.True (difficult)20. Standardization refers to the degree to which jobs within the organization are standardized and the extent towhich employee behavior is guided by rules and procedures.False (moderate)ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN DECISIONS21. An organic organization tends to be characterized by high specialization, extensive departmentalization,narrow spans of control, high formalization, a limited information network, and little participation indecision-making by low-level employees.False (moderate)22. An organic organization would likely be very flexible.True (moderate)23. Innovators need the efficiency, stability, and tight controls of the mechanistic structure.False (easy)24. The relationship between organizational size and structure tends to be linear.False (difficult)25. Joan Woodward attempted to view organizational structure from a technological perspective.True (moderate)26. Woodward demonstrated that organizational structures adapted to their technology.True (moderate)27. Woodward's findings support that there is "one best way" to organize a manufacturing firm.False (moderate)28. The strength of the functional structure is that it focuses on results.False (moderate) it is the strength of divisional structure.\\\\\\\29. According to the text, a functional structure creates strategic business units.False (moderate)COMMON ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGNS30. Project structures tend to be rigid and inflexible organizational designs.False (easy)Multiple ChoiceA MANAGER’S DILEMMA31. Accordi ng to t he company profile in ―A Manager’s Dilemma,‖ the organizational structure of Nokia is best described as ______________.a. mechanisticb. organic (moderate)c. centralizedd. formalized32. The factor contributing the most to Nokia’s success in the mobile phone industry according to the company profile in ―A Manager’s Dilemma‖ is ______________.a. new product development (moderate)b. government subsidiesc. national trade barriersd. weak competition33. ______________ is the process of creating an organization's structure.a. Human resource managementb. Leadingc. Organizing (moderate)d. Planninge. DepartmentalizationDEFINING ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE34. According to the text, a(n) ______________ is the formal framework by which job tasks are divided,grouped, and coordinated.a. mission statementb. environmental scanc. internal resource analysisd. organizational structure (moderate)35. Which of the following is not one of the six key elements in organizational design?a. work specializationb. departmentalizationc. chain of commandd. bureaucratic design (difficult)e. span of control36. Work specialization is also known as ______________.a. departmentalization.b. centralization.c. span of control.d. formalization.e. division of labor. (easy)37. The term ______________ is used to describe the degree to which tasks in an organization are divided intoseparate jobs.a. work ethicsb. managerial capitalismc. social responsibilityd. work specialization (moderate)38. When did the idea of enlarging, rather than narrowing, job scope begin?a. 1950sb. 1960s (moderate)c. 1970sd. 1980se. 1990s39. Which of the following is not an example of the classical viewof division of labor?a. assembly-line productionb. Burger Kingc. Taco Belld. TQM (moderate)e. Kentucky Fried Chicken40. ______________ is the basis on which jobs are grouped inorderto accomplish organizational goals.a. Departmentalization (moderate)b. Centralizationc. Formalizationd. Coordinatione. Efficiency41. A local manufacturing organization has groups of employees whoare responsible for sales, marketing,accounting, human resources, etc. These are examples of what concept?a. authorityb. chain of commandc. empowermentd. departmentalization (moderate)e. social grouping42. Grouping sporting equipment in one area, men's clothing in another area, and cosmetics in a third area, is anexample of what kind departmentalization?a. customerb. product (easy)c. geographicd. processe. outcome43. Sales responsibilities divided into the southwest, midwest, southern, northern, and western regions would bean example of ______________ departmentalization.a. productb. geographic (easy)c. processd. outcomee. customer44. Grouping activities on the basis of customer flow is______________.a. functional departmentalization.b. product departmentalization.c. geographical departmentalization.d. process departmentalization. (moderate)e. technological departmentalization.45. What type of departmentalization expects that each department will specialize in one specific phase of the process or product production?a. productb. geographicc. process (easy)d. outcomee. customer46. What kind of departmentalization would be in place in a government organization where different publicservice responsibilities are divided into activities for employers, children, and the disabled?a. productb. geographicc. processd. outcomee. customer (moderate)47. Which of the following is not a form of departmentalization suggested by your text?a. functional departmentalizationb. product departmentalizationc. geographical departmentalizationd. process departmentalizatione. technological departmentalization (difficult)48. Today's competitive business environment has greatly increasedthe importance of what type ofdepartmentalization?a. geographicb. customer (difficult)c. productd. processe. outcome49. According to the text, managers are using ______________, which are groups of individuals who areexperts in various specialties and who work together.a. specialized teamsb. cross-demanded teamsc. cross-functional teams (moderate)d. simple structured teams50. Which of the following is a contemporary addition to thehistorical view of departmentalization?a. increased rigidityb. cross-functional teams (moderate)c. enhanced centralizationd. elimination of product departmentalizatione. addition of sales departmentalization51. Bringing together the company's legal counsel, research engineer, and marketing specialist for a project isan example of a(n) ______________.a. empowered team.b. process departmentalization.c. product departmentalization.d. cross-functional team. (moderate)e. continuous improvement team.52. The ______________ is the continuous line of authority that extends from upper organizational levels to thelowest levels and clarifies who reports to whom.a. chain of demandb. chain of command (easy)c. demand hierarchyd. continuous design structure53. To whom a worker reports concerns which aspect of organizational structure?a. chain of command (moderate)b. departmentalizationc. pay structured. line of commande. authority framework54. ______________ entitles a manager to direct the work of a subordinate.a. Responsibilityb. Legitimate powerc. Rankd. Operating responsibilitye. Authority (moderate)55. ______________ is the obligation to perform assigned activities.a. Authorityb. Responsibility (easy)c. Chain of commandd. Unity of commande. Formalization56. The ______________ principle (one of Fayol’s 14 principles of management) helps preserve the concept ofa continuous line of authority.a. unity of demandb. unity of command (moderate)c. demand structured. continuous demand57. Span of control refers to which of the following concepts?a. how much power a manager has in the organizationb. the geographic dispersion of a manager's subunits ofresponsibilityc. how many subordinates a manager can effectively and efficiently supervise (moderate)d. the number of subordinates affected by a single managerial ordere. the amount of time it takes to pass information down through a manager's line of command58. Other things being equal, the wider or larger the span of control, the more ______________ theorganizational design.a. bureaucraticb. democraticc. effectived. efficient (difficult)e. classical59. Wider spans of control may be viewed as more efficient, but eventually, wider spans tend to have whateffect on organizations?a. reduced effectiveness (difficult)b. increased turnoverc. loss of managerial powerd. customer dissatisfactione. rigid chains of command60. An organization that spends money on maintaining a well-trained work force can expect which of thefollowing span-of-control outcomes?a. increased contempt for managementb. increased voluntary turnoverc. centralized authorityd. less direct supervision (moderate)e. increased need for managerial-level employees61. A high-tech manager who supervises the development of a new computer chip needs ______________compared to a manager who supervises the mailing of unemployment insurance checks at the localgovernment office.a. about the same span of controlb. a narrower span of control (difficult)c. a wider span of controld. a more informal span of controle. elimination of the span of control62. In general, span of control is ______________ for managers.a. increasing (easy)b. decreasingc. staying the samed. significantly decreasinge. no longer important63. ______________ describes the degree to which decision making is concentrated at a single point in theorganization.a. Decentralizationb. Centralization (moderate)c. Transnationalismd. Cross sectional analysis64. If lower-level employees provide input or are actually given the discretion to make decisions, theorganization is ______________.a. formalized.b. centralized.c. decentralized. (easy)d. mechanistic.e. organic.65. Recently, there has been a distinct trend toward ______________.a. smaller spans of control.b. decentralized decision-making. (moderate)c. decreased flexibility.d. emphasis on chain of command.e. mechanistic organizations.66. Which of the following factors WOULD NOT influence an organization to have a higher degree ofcentralization?a. Environment is stable.b. Company is geographically dispersed. (difficult)c. Company is large.d. Decisions are significant.e. Organization is facing a crisis.67. ______________ refers to the degree to which jobs within the organization are standardized and the extentto which employee behavior is guided by rules and procedures.a. Standardizationb. Centralizationc. Chain of commandd. Strategye. Formalization (moderate)68. All of the following factors indicate that a decentralized organization would be most effective EXCEPTwhen ______________.a. the environment is complex.b. decisions are relatively minor.c. the organization is facing a crisis. (difficult)d. the company is geographically dispersed.e. effective implementation of strategies depends on managers having involvement and flexibilityto make decisions.69. Which of the following factors describes an environment in whicha high degree of decentralization isdesired?a. Environment is complex, uncertain. (moderate)b. Lower-level managers do not want to have a say in decisions.c. Decisions are significant.d. Company is large.e. Organization is facing a crisis or the risk of company failure.70. The ______________ organizational structure is characterized by high specialization, extensivedepartmentalization, narrow spans of control and high formalization.a. mechanistic (easy)b. organicc. contingencyd. adhocracye. functional71. Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of a mechanistic organization?a. high specializationb. wide spans of control (moderate)c. high formalizationd. limited information networke. extensive departmentalization72. What type of organizational form follows classical principles such as unity of command?a. organicb. linearc. decentralizedd. mechanistic (moderate)e. adhocracyORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN DECISIONS73. Which of the following would likely be found in mechanistic organizations?a. wide span of controlb. empowered employeesc. decentralized responsibilityd. few rules and/or regulationse. standardized job specialties (difficult)74. All of the following are characteristics of an organic organization EXCEPT:a. narrow spans of control. (moderate)b. cross-hierarchical teams.c. free flow of information.d. low formalization.e. cross-functional teams.75. In the early years of Apple Computers, its desire for highly proficient and creative employees who operatedwith few work rules was an example of what type of organization?a. bureaucraticb. mechanisticc. volatiled. nouvellee. organic (difficult)。

罗宾斯管理学人大第九版课后思考题答案

7.能。比如研发性质的工作，或创造性质的工作，如：开发新产品，研究未知领域，艺术的创作，新奇的构想等。由于这些工作须要更大的自由性和充足的时间，不能用管理的方法硬性规定任务，否则会影响雇员的工作积极性，而且也不利于工作的效果。
8.同意，因为对于管理者而言，管理的方法与方式都是在不断的变化与发展的，在管理学中没有万能的、绝对的好方法，一切都是在不断更新的。面对不同的情况应有不同的对策，而如何去更好更快地完成工作，管理的研究就会有很多种答案，每种答案思考方式不一样，但最终结果都是为了更好更快地完成工作的。所以就会有各式各样的理论、流派，百花齐放，形成一股特定的艺术特色，就像不同风格的音乐，不同派别的油画，但都有自己特定的目标。所以管理是一门完成工作的艺术。
2定量方法能否帮助管理者解决人的问题，例如怎样激励员工以及如何合理地分配工作？请解释。
答：数量方法对于帮助管理者解决人的问题方面起着很重要的作用。
数量方法是在第二次世界大战期间用于解决军事问题的数学和统计方法的基础上发展起来的。所谓数量管理方法，是把运筹学、统计学和电子计算机用于管理决策和提高组织效率的一种思想。常用的数量方法有：线性规划、关键路线进度分析技术、经济订货数量模型等。
（2）玛丽?福莱特的行为科学研究创立了注重沟通好人际关系的人员导向型工作场所。她即把泰罗的细想加以概括，又提出了人际关系学说的一些观点，是科学管理和行为科学联系的桥梁。她的管理哲学思想这要是：【1】通过利益的结合减少冲突。对付冲突，不能采取压服或妥协的方法，必须看到共利益，通过双方利益的结合，使冲突双方都能得到充分的满足。【2】变服从个人权力为遵循形势规律。应该使命令“非人格化”，权威应该产生于职能，并与知识、经验相联系。【3】通过协作和控制达到目的。【4】领导应以他和拥护者的相互影响为基础。领导所依靠的不是命令和服从，而是协调和确定目标的技巧，唤起下属对形势规律的响应。福莱特是最早认识到应该用个人和群体行为为观点来看待组织的学者之一，比科学管理的追随者更进一步提出了人员导向的思想，认为组织应该遵循集体道德原则。

管理学,罗宾斯,9版,中文第8章变革与创新管理-PPT文档资料

第8章变革与创新管理
Байду номын сангаас8-1
学习目标
• 8.1 定义组织变革并比较变革过程的两种观点 • 8.2 解释如何管理变革阻力 • 8.3 描述管理者需要了解员工压力的哪些方面 • 8.4 讨论激发创新的方法
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8.1 定义组织变革并比较变革过程的两种观点
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什么是组织变革？
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外部力量
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执行变革
组织发展：管理层为了改变组织的某一
方面会做出一系列努力
8-11
组织发展尝试 1. 调查反馈 2. 过程咨询 3. 团队建设 4. 群体间发展
8-12
8.2 解释如何管理
变革阻力
8-13
变革阻力
• 27%的企业表示变革最大的阻力是授权他人来实施变革； • 46%的员工说他们愿意放弃部分薪水来换取私人时间；
压力的症状新陈代谢的变化心跳和呼吸频率加快血压升高头疼心脏病可能发作
对工作的不满意焦虑易怒厌倦拖延
行为
生产力、缺勤、员工流动率的变化饮食习惯的变化吸烟或饮酒量增加讲话速度加快烦躁、失眠
8-19
减轻压力
8-22
8.4 讨论激发创新的方法
8-23
创造力与创新 • 创造力（Creativity）：以独特的方式整合各类思想，或在多种思想之间建立独特联系的能力 • 创新（Innovation）：提出创造性思想并将其转换为有用的产品、服务或作业方法的过程
员工压力的哪些方面
8-16
员工对变革的反应
变革会给大多数员工造成压力
8-17
变革会给员工带来压力
六个主要经济体的员工压力水平英国巴西德国美国全球平均水平中国印度 35%的员工 34%的员工 33%的员工 32%的员工 29%的员工 17%的员工 17%的员工

罗宾斯(第9版)管理学习题7-13章

第七章一、选择题1·( )是正式计划而非非正式计划的特征。

a．组织内部很少或没有共同目标 b．计划工作是普遍的c．为实现目标存在具体的行动计划 d．关注结果2·( )属于计划工作的四个原因之一。

a．计划自动地增加灵活性 b．计划减少不确定性c．计划即使不确定也具有价值d·计划不是件容易的工作，需要经过高强度训练才能制定好的计划3·( )是个体、群体和整个组织期望的产出。

a．计划 b．目 c．战略 d．政策4·( )是组织向外界宣称的试图使各种利益相关群体相信的正式的陈述。

a．真实目标 b．陈述目标c·目标管理 d．方向性计划5．不是融资目标例子的是( )。

a．较大的现金流 b．较高的分红、c·较高的红利和较好的信用等 d．较大的市场份额6·( )构成了组织的整体目标，( )具体表明整体目标怎样达到。

a．战略计划；运营计划 b．长期计划；短期计划c．具体计划；方向性计划 d．持续性计划；一次性计划7．长期计划的时间框架是( )。

a·小于一年 b．大于一年c·超过两年 d．超过三年8·短期计划的时间框架是( )。

a．一年左右 b．两年左右 c．三年左右 d．四年左右9·制定一般指导原则的灵活性计划是( )。

a·运营计划 b．战略计划 c．具体计划 d．方向性计划l0·当环境的不确定性很高时，( )更好。

a·战略计划 b．方向性计划c·运营计划 d．持续性计划11为满足特定情况需要，对非程序性决策作出反应而制定的计划是L )。

a·短期计划 b．具体计划 c．方向性计划 d．一次性计划12·( )计划提供了对重复进行的活动的持续指导。

a·方向性 b．持续性c·运营 d．一次性13‘窑三…：中j首先设立组织的最高目标，然后将其分解为每一个组织层次的子目标。

管理学,罗宾斯,9版,中文第8章变革与创新管理

生理
心理
新陈代谢的变化心跳和呼吸频率加快
血压升高头疼
心脏病可能发作
压力的症状行为
Байду номын сангаас
对工作的不满意焦虑易怒厌倦拖延
生产力、缺勤、员工流动率的变
化
饮食习惯的变化
吸烟或饮酒量增加
讲话速度加快
烦躁、失眠
8-19
减轻压力
8-22
8.4 讨论激发创新的方法
8-23
创造力与创新 • 创造力（Creativity）：以独特的方式整合各类思想，或在多种思想之间建立独特联系的能力 • 创新（Innovation）：提出创造性思想并将其转换为有用的产品、服务或作业方法的过程
8-28
人力资源和创新
8-29
8-13
变革阻力
• 27%的企业表示变革最大的阻力是授权他人来实施变革； • 46%的员工说他们愿意放弃部分薪水来换取私人时间； • 员工对变革的抵制中有50%都是可以通过有效变革管理来避免的； • 77%的管理者表示他们每周工作 41-60个小时； • 31%的管理者相信创新是在公司中偶然发生的； • 25%的员工表示他们的公司会将创新当成强制性任务来鼓励。
促进与支持当反对者害怕并焦虑不安时
可以促进所需要的调整花费较大，没有成功的把握
谈判
当阻力来自权力集团时
可以收买人心
潜在成本高，会面临来自其他人的压力，旁门洞开，无疑自找压力
操纵和合作当需要一个权力集团的支持时
强制
当需要一个权力集团的支持时
成本不高，便于得到支持可能后院失火，导致变革推动者失去信誉成本不高，便于得到支持可能是非法的；可能有损变革推动者的信誉

斯蒂芬_P_罗宾斯第九版《管理学》讲义.pdf

斯蒂芬·P·罗宾斯《管理学》笔记第Ⅰ篇绪论第一章管理者与组织导论一、谁是管理者（1）管理者：组织中指挥他人活动的人，他们拥有各种头衔。

（2）操作者：非管理人员，他们直接从事某项工作或任务，不具有监督别人工作的责任。

（3）组织：指一种有人们组成的，具有明确的和系统性结构的实体。

（4）管理者分类：基层管理者中层管理者高层管理者。

二、什么是管理和管理者做什么１、管理的定义：（1）管理：同别人一起或通过别人使活动完成得更有效的过程。

这一过程体现在计划、组织、领导和控制的职能成基本活动中。

（2）效率：只输入与输出关系，涉及使完成活动的职员最小化。

（方法）效果：与活动的完成，即与目标的实现相联系。

（结果）两者关系：管理不仅关系到使活动达到目标，而且要做得尽可能有效率。

低水平管理绝大多数是由于无效率和无效果，或者是通过牺牲效率来取得效果。

２、管理的职能：（1）计划：确定目标，制定目标，制定战略，以及开发分计划以协调活动。

（2）组织：决定需要做什么，怎么做，由谁去做。

（3）领导：指导和激励所有参与者以及解决冲突。

（4）控制：对活动进行监控以确保其按计划完成。

３、管理者角色（亨利·明茨伯格）：（1）管理者角色：特定的管理行为范畴①涉及人际关系：挂名首脑、领导者、联络者②涉及信息传递：监听者、传播者、发言人③涉及决策制定：企业家、混沌驾御者、谈判者（2）管理者角色与传统管理职能理论的关系：①职能方法仍然代表着将管理者的工作概念化的最有效方法。

②管理者角色实质上与四种职能是一致的。

４、有效的管理者与成功的管理者（弗雷德·卢森斯）①成功的管理者（提升最快的管理者）强调网络关系活动；而有效的管理者（绩效最佳的管理者）强调沟通。

②两者关系的意义：这个结果指出社交和政治技巧对于在组织中晋升是重要的［从传统管理、沟通、人力资源管理、网络联系活动者］随着层次的晋升，从事更多计划、组织、控制、而从事更少领导。

罗宾斯《管理学》第九版题库-8

Chapter 8 - Strategic ManagementTrue/False Questions3. The first step in the strategic management process is analyzing the external environment.False (difficult)6. Within an industry, an environment can present opportunities to one organization and pose threats to another.True (moderate)The final step in the strategic management process is implementing the objectives.False (difficult)TYPES OF ORGANIZATIONAL STRATEGIES11.Corporate-level strategics arc developed for organizations that run more than one type of business.True (moderate)The business group that is characterized by having low growth but high market share is known as a cash cow.True (moderate)According to the Boston Consulting Group matrix, question marks are businesses that generate large amounts of cash, but their prospects lor future growth are limited?False (moderate)According to Porter's competitive strategies framework, the cost leadership strategy would result in the best quality product at a justifiable cost.False (difficult)Multiple Choice38.The strategic management process is divided into which of the following sections?a.planning, implementation, and evaluation (easy)b.problem identification, planning, and implementationc.implementation, evaluation, and restructuringd.mission statement, environmental evaluation, and specific goalse.mission statement, environmental scoping, and evaluationIn the strategic management process, the defines the organizational purpose and answersthe question: "What is our reason for being in business?" a. objective b. evaluation c. strategyd.mission (easy)e.values statement41. Which of the following is not an example of an organization's mission?a.We believe our first responsibility is to doctors, nurses and patients, to mothers and all others who use ourproducts and services. (Johnson & Johnson).b.AMAX's principal products are molybdenum, coal, iron ore, copper, lead, zinc, petroleum and natural gas,potash, phosphates, nickel, tungsten, silver, gold, and magnesium.c.We at Xeren want to increase market share by 10% during the next fiscal year, (difficult)d.Wc are dedicated to the total success of Corning Glass Works as a worldwide competitor.e.Hoover Universal is a diversified, multi-industry corporation with strong manufacturing capabilities,entrepreneurial policies, and individual business unit autonomy.44.Which of the following is not part of the organization's external environment?a.what competition is doingb.pending legislation that might affect the organizationc.consumer trendsd.employees* education level (moderate)bor supplyWhat step in the strategic management process follows analyzing the external environment?a.identifying opportunities and threats (moderate)b.mission statementc.evaluationd.identifying strengths and weaknessese.formulating strategiesWhat step in the strategic management process follows analyzing the organization's resources?a.identifying opportunities and threatsb.formulating strategyc.mission statementd.implementing strategye.identifying strengths and weaknesses (easy)In the strategic management process, what step comes prior to evaluating results?a.identifying strengths and weaknessesb.formulating strategiesc.identifying opportunities and threatsd.implementing strategies (easy)f.analyzing the organization's resourcesWhat is the final step in the strategic management process?a.mission statementb.identifying opportunities and threatsc.implementing strategicsd.analyzing the organization's resourcese.evaluating results (easy)Which of the following is one level of strategic planning in large companies?a.management levelb.financial levelc.staff leveld.corporate level (easy)e.systems levelLower level managers in an organization are typically responsible for which of the following types of strategies?a.functional-level strategiesb.business-level strategiesc.corporate-level strategiesd.mergers and acquisitionsWhich of the following is associated with corporate-lcvcl strategies?a.They are needed if your organization is in more than one type of business, (moderate)b.They answer: "How should our business compete?"c.They represent a single business.d.They arc a method of support for the business-level strategics.e.They determine the operations of a single business unit.65.When PepsiCo seeks to integrate the strategies of Pepsi, 7-Up International, and Frito-Lay, it is developingwhat level of business strategy?a.functionalb.systemc.managementd.businesse.corporate (moderate)Examples of a corporate-level stability strategy include all of the following EXCEPT:a.continuing to serve the same clients by offering the same product or service.b.maintaining market share.c.sustaining the organization's return-on-investment results.d.implementing vertical or horizontal integration, (moderate)When should management pursue a stability strategy?anizational performance is slipping.b.The environment is changing.c.The organization's performance is satisfactory and the environment is stable, (moderate)d.The firm has valuable strengths.e.There are abundant environmental opportunities.76.In, the organization attempts to gain control of its inputs by becoming its own supplier.a.forward vertical integrationb.backward vertical integration (moderate)c.horizontal integrationd.related diversificatione.unrelated diversificationWhich of the following describes a company growing by combining with other organizations in the same industry?a.forward vertical integrationb.backward vertical integrationc.horizontal integration (moderate)d.related diversificatione.unrelated diversificationWhich of the four business groups in (he corporate portfolio matrix has high growth and high market share?a.cash cowb.stars (difficult)c.question marksd.dogse.elephantsMichael Porter's competitive strategies framework identifies three generic competitive strategies: cost leadership, differentiation, and.a.depth.b.breadth.c.revenue growth.d.focus, (moderate)e.acquisition.102.Porter's competitive strategies framework describes a strategy whereby an organizationwants to be unique in its industry along dimensions widely valued by buyers.a.differentiation (moderate)b.fbcusc.cost leadershipd.depthe.defenderAccording to the boxed feature, "Managing in an E-Business World? all of the following are mentioned as major implications of the increasingly dynamic and uncertain environments on e-business strategies EXCEPT:a.environmental analysis will become an important part of everyone's job.b.strategy will become increasingly long term in orientation, (moderate)c.barriers to entry are practically nonexistent.d. a sustainable competitive advantage will be harder to achieve.ScenariosA Large Taco (Scenario)It is now ten years later and, as the original owner of Taco Rocket, you have seen your business holdings grow substantially. You now need to decide how to best manage and utilize the large number of assets represented by the companies you own. You called the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), and they have offered you some advice based on their corporate portfolio matrix.117.Your oldest holding, Taco Rocket, has not grown much in recent years but, due to low debt, generates a hugeamount of cash. Taco Rocket would be considered, according to BCG, a.a.cash cow. (moderate)b.star.c.question mark.d.dog.e.does not fit with their matrix-Recently, you also purchased a company that manufactures a new satellite dish, allowing you to enter into the cable television market. The business is profitable and growing, but the technological unknowns make it risky. BGC considers it a.a.cash cow.b.star.c.question mark, (moderate)d.dog.e.does not fit with their matrix-Another purchase you made was to acquire a local coffee-cart chain with thirty locations around the city. You don't see it growing very much, bui then, ii doesn't cost much (o operate. BGC has labeled this venturea.cash cow.b.star.c.question mark.d.dog. (moderate)e.does not fit with their matrix118.You also got somewhat lucky with an investment made a few years ago. You were an original investor in a computer chip company that took off quickly and now dominates the market. While growing quickly, it docs not tend to generate positive cash flow and is in continuous need of reinvestment of equipment and product development. BGC considers this a. a. cash cow.b.star, (moderate)c.question mark.d.dog.e.does not fit with their matrix-Essay QuestionsTHE STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT PROCESSIn a short essay, list and discuss the eight steps in the strategic management process.123.In a short essay, list and discuss the three levels of strategy that an organization must develop.Answer Corporate-level strategy - this strategy seeks to determine what businesses a company should be in or wants to be in. Corporate-level strategy determines the direction that the organization is going and the roles that each business unit in the organization will plan in pursuing that direction.a.Business-level strategy - this strategy seeks to determine how an organization should compete in each ofits businesses. For a small organization in only one line of business or the large organization that has not diversified into different products or markets, the business-level strategy typically overlaps with (he organization's corporate strategy. For organizations with multiple businesses, however, each division will have its own strategy that defines the products or services it will offer and the customers it wants to reach.b.Functional-level strategy - this strategy seeks to determine how (o support (he business-level strategy. Fororganizations (hat have traditional functional departments such as manufacturing, marketing, human resources, research and development, and finance, these strategies need to support the businesslevel strategy(moderate)In a short essay, discuss the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) matrix and explain its usefulness in segmenting businesses. Include a discussion of the characteristics for each of the four categories based on the BCG matrix.Answer The Boston Consulting Group matrix introduced the idea that an organization's businesses could be evaluated and plotted using a 2 x 2 matrix to identify which ones offered high potential and which were a drain on organizational resources. The horizontal axis represents market share, which was evaluated as either low or high; and the vertical axis indicates anticipated market growth, which also was evaluated as either low or high. Based on its evaluation, the business was placed in one of four categories:a.Cash cows (low growth, high market share) - businesses in this category generate large amounts of cash,but they prospects for future growth are limited.b.Stars (high growth, high market share) - these businesses are in a fast-growing market, and hold a dominantshare of that market. Their contribution to cash flow depends on their need for resources.c.Question marks (high growth, low market share) - these businesses are in an attractive industry, but holda small market share percentage.d.Dogs (low growth, low market share) - businesses in this category do not produce, or consume, much cash.However, they hold no promise for improved performance.(easy)In a short essay, list and discuss the five competitive forces, according to Porter, which determine industry attractiveness and profitability.Answer Threat of new entrants - determined by the height of barriers to entry which includes factors such as economies of scale, brand loyalty, and capital requirements determine how easy or difficult it is for new competitors to enter an industry.a.Threat of substitutes - factors such as switching costs and buyer loyalty determine the degree to whichcustomers are likely to buy a substitute product.b.Bargaining power of buyers - factors such as number of customers in the market, customer information,and the availability of substitutes determine the amount of influence that buyers have in an industry.c.Bargaining power of suppliers - factors such as the degree of supplier concentration and availability ofsubstitute inputs determine the amount of power that supplier have over firms in the industry.d.Existing rivalry - factors such as industry growth rate, increasing or falling demand, and product differencesdetermine how intense the competitive rivalry will be among firms in the industry.(moderate)In a short essay, list and discuss the three competitive strategics, according to Porter. Include specific examples of companies that pursue each of the three competitive strategies.Answer Cost leadership strategy - when an organization sets out to be the lowest-cost producer in its industry, it's following a cost leadership strategy. A low-cost leader aggressively searches out efficiencies in production, marketing, and other areas of operation. Overhead is kept to a minimum, and the firm does everything it can to cut costs. For example, Wal-Mart,s headquarters in Bentonville, Arkansas, office furnishings are sparse and drab but functional. Although low-cost leaders don't place a lot of emphasis on "frills,“ the product or service being sold must be perceived as comparable in quality to (hat offered by rivals or al least be acceptable (o buyers. Examples of companies that have used the low-cost leader strategy include Wal-Mart, Hyundai, and Southwest Airlines.a.Differentiation strategy - the company that seeks to offer unique products that are widely valued bycustomers is following a differentiation strategy. Sources of differentiation might be exceptionally high quality, extraordinary service, innovative design, technological capability, or an unusually positive brand image. The key to this competitive strategy is that whatever product or service attribute is chosen for differentiating must set the firm apart from its competitors and be significant enough to justify a price premium that exceed the cost of differentiating. Practically any successful product or sen ice can be identified as an example of the differentiation strategy: Nordstrom's (customer service); Sony (reputation for quality and innovative design); Coach handbags (design and brand image); and Kimberly-Clark's Huggies Pull-Ups (product design).b.Focus strategy - the aim of the focus strategy is at a cost advantage or a differentiation advantage in anarrow segment. That is, managers select a market segment or group of segments in an industry and don't attempt to serve the broad market. The goal of a fbcus strategy is to exploit a narrow segment of a market.These segments can be based on product variety, type of end buyer, distribution channel, or geographical location of buyers. Research suggests (hat (he focus strategy may be (he most effective choice lor small businesses because they typically do not have the economies of scale or internal resources to successfully pursue one of the other two strategies.(moderate)。

罗宾斯(第9版)管理学习题1-4章

第一章口选择题1·治理者是()。

a．不需要补偿的雇员b·为实现组织目标协调工作活动的人c．组织的首脑d．一线工人2·地区经理、工程主管和事业部经理都能够被称为()。

a．基层治理者b．非治理雇员c．中层治理者d．高层治理者3·玛丽向营销副总裁上报工作内容，同时她又是监督者，一些小时工雇员直截了当向她汇报，那么玛丽是()。

a．基层治理者b．中层治理者c．高层治理者d．执行者4·那些负责作出组织层面的决策，并为整个组织制定方案和目标的治理者被定义为()。

a·高层治理者b．中层治理者c．基层治理者d．非治理雇员5·以下能区不治理职位和非治理职位的是()。

a·工资金额的多少b．是否协调他人的工作c·是否组织新的工程d．是否拥有技术技能6·假如比安卡的工作专注在减少白费上，那么她更应该是()治理者。

a·有效率的b．有效果的c．目标导向的d．拥有技术技能的7．效果通常被描述为()。

a．工作活动有助于关心组织实现其目标b．委任尽可能多的责任c．通过自己来治理过程d．通过资金情况来定义一个工程的结果8·()可被理解为正确地做事，()可被理解为一种结果，或者到达组织目标。

a．效果；经济b．效果；效率c．效率；效果d．经济；效率9．方案包括()。

a．指导和鼓舞他人b．适时监控以确保完成任务c．决定某事需要由谁来做d．确定目标、制定策略10．当一个治理者决定需要做什么以及怎么样完成时，他是在()。

a．方案b．组织c．领导d．操纵11．将实际业绩和预先设定的目标进行比照可视为()。

a．方案b．组织c．领导d．操纵12·珍妮弗的上司要求她解释其所属部门的实际开支与公司预算数额不符之处。

在那个地点，上司执行的是()治理职能。

a．方案b．组织c．领导c1．操纵13·在组织成员之间选择最有效的沟通渠道应属于()治理职能。

罗宾斯(第9版)管理学习题5-6章

第五章口选择题1．认为通过实现利润最大化保护利益相关群体的利益是管理者的主要职责的观点是( )。

a．古典观点 b．社会经济学观点 C．社会责任 d．问题强度2．认为企业应该为其所处的更大社会环境承担自己的社会责任的观点反映的是( )。

a．古典观点 b．社会经济学观点 C．社会义务 d．问题强度3．斯巴克车辆维修公司的管理者将雇员纳入企业利益相关群体的范畴，希望吸引、保留、激励优秀员工，管理者处于组织社会责任扩展的四阶段模型中的( )。

a．阶段1 b．阶段2 c．阶段 3 d．阶段44．企业提高空气污染标准以达到法律规定的最低水平是在实践( )。

a．社会责任 b．社会义务 C．社会响应 d．问题强度5．认为社会责任违背管理古典观点的本质而反对社会责任的人在( )基础上阐述自己的观点。

a．利润最大化的偏离 b．成本 C．权力过大 d．淡化使命6．企业发现自己生产的玩具存在安全隐患时，主动召回该产品是在实践( )。

a．社会责任 b．社会义务 C．社会响应 d．问题强度7．( )强调道德的强制约束，使社会环境变好而不是变坏。

a．社会责任 b．社会义务 c．社会响应 d．问题强度8．研究表明，( )。

a．社会责任与公司利润之间存在负相关关系。

b．社会责任对公司利润无直接影响。

c．社会责任与公司利润之间存在正相关关系。

d．社会责任对公司利润的影响依赖于问题强度。

9．对组织决策和活动与组织对自然环境的影响之间的紧密联系的意识称为( )。

a．联结点理论 b．管理的绿色化 c．生态意识 d．利益相关群体的授权10．以绿化美国为目标的环境敏感度的最高层次是( )。

a．法律方式 b．活动家方式 c．市场方式 d．利益相关群体方式11．当意识到管理应绿色化时，大多数组织在第一阶段采取的是( )。

a．法律方式 b．市场方式 c．利益相关群体方式 d．活动家方式12．管理者建立、推行和实践组织共享价值观的管理方式是( )。

罗宾斯第九版《管理学》案例分析

阅公司信息，你能讲述一下公司对顾客服务和创新的强调吗？组织是如何支持雇员的顾客服务和创新的？
3．登录赛门铁克公司的网站( www. syrnantec. corn)，查
访问赛门铁克的网站，我们可以清楚地了解到赛门铁克的关注重心是它的消费者。从一开始，赛门铁克的企业责任就与它对顾客服务和创新的追求相关联：“我们是顾客驱动的，我们获得信任，我们创新，我们行动。”赛门铁克连续五年被商业道德杂志誉为“百佳社会公民”，它通过富有责任的商业行为实现了对于顾客、员工和股东的承诺。为答谢它的顾客，赛门铁克运用专业技术使IT风险最小化，同时实现组织目标。赛门铁克信任的工作环境、对于员工的授权以及被《财富》评为“最佳雇主”都证明了它对员工的贡献。
门铁克公司的方法中学到什么？
4．其他管理者能从文森特·韦弗和赛
文森特·韦弗应对不断变化的和多元化的环境的例子值得各管理者借鉴，不管这些管理者来自生产型企业还是服务型企业。企业从全球各地15 500个员工身上汲取能量，这一点也可以反映在该公司网站的介绍上： “我们多元化的员工是我们最核心的竞争力，同时是同经营直接联系的最基本的需求。”其他的管理者可以从中认识到创新的价值和员工对于一个成功组织的重要性。
(2)要重视人才的重要作用要重视人才的重要作用人才是一个公司的血液。一个公司想要做大做强，立于不败之地，就必须要有充足的人才资源作为坚强的后盾。文特森·韦弗正是因为认识到这一点，才四处搜罗真才实学的人才，一旦遇到，便努力争取他们，十分重视人才的多元化。如：他所管理的高级研究者有来自匈牙利、冰岛、墨尔本等各地人才。
第五小组制作
1．对于文森特·韦弗而言，使员工对日常标准化的混乱的工作保持激情是一个很大的挑战。他如何用技术、人际和概念技能来维持这种鼓励病毒搜索人员创新和职业化的环境？

浙大 866 862 罗宾斯《管理学》第九版重点笔记 Chapter 9 计划工作的工具和技术

第一节评估环境的技术一、环境扫描环境扫描，对大量信息进行扫描，以便预测并解释环境中的这些环境中的变化。

大范围的环境扫描很可能揭示出影响组织当前正在实施的活动的趋势或问题竞争对手情报，收集竞争对手信息的环境扫描活动。

所谓竞争对手情报是一个过程，组织借助这个过程收集竞争对手的信息，试图得到诸如下列一些答案：谁是竞争者？它们在做什么？竞争对手的行动将对我们产生什么影响？二、预测预测，对结果的预计1. 预测技术定量预测，运用一组数学规则，根据过去的数据序列来预计未来的结果定性预测，根据熟悉情况人员的意见和判断来预测未来的结果定性预测技术通常用于只能收集到有限数据的情况2. 预测的有效性预测的目标是向管理者提供信息，以辅助决策的制定管理者如何才能使他们的预测更有效呢？1. 要了解当环境基本上保持稳定时，预测技术是最精确的2. 尽量应用简单的预测方法，简单的预测方法趋向于比复杂方法的应用效果更好，因为复杂的方法时常错误地混淆随机数据与有意义的信息3. 考虑使更多的人参与到这个预测过程中来4. 将预测结果与不变的趋势相比较5. 运用动态预测方法，对接下来12 ~18个月的情况进行预测，不要使用简单的静态预测方法。

此外，不要依靠单一的预测方法，应当采用几种模型来预测，然后将结果进行平均，特别在进行长期预测时更是如此6. 不要假定你能够准确地识别趋势的转折点，通常趋势的转折点是由随机的事件引起的7. 请记住，预测是一种管理技能，它是可以通过实践不断改进的三、标杆比较标杆比较，在竞争对手和非竞争对手中寻找一种最佳实践做法，从而导致卓越的绩效标杆比较最基本的思想是，管理者可以通过分析然后复制各个领域领先者的方法来改进绩效P234 图表9-2 标杆比较的步骤第二节分配资源的技术资源是一个组织的资产，它包括财务资源、物质资源、人力资源、无形资产一、预算预算，针对具体活动分配资源的数字性计划它适用于各种类型的组织以及组织中的各种活动P235 图表9-3 预算的类型它是一种重要的管理活动，因为它强制性地在整个组织范围推行财务的纪律和结构P235 图表9-4 改进预算的建议二、排程1. 甘特图甘特图，由亨利·甘特发明的一种日程安排图，用以表示在一段时间里计划的和实际的产出情况甘特图使得管理者能够很容易地搞清什么活动已经在进行，以及评估哪些活动提前完成了，可能推迟或者按进度计划进行2. 负荷图负荷图，一种改进的甘特图，是对整个部门或具体资源的能力进行排程3. PERT网络分析PERT网络，流程型的图形，描述了完成项目的必要顺序以及每项活动相关的时间或成本事件，PERT网络中代表主要活动的完成的节点活动，在PERT网络中，从一个事件进展到另一个事件所需的时间或资源松弛时间，在不影响整个项目进度的前提下个体活动可能拖延完成的最长时间关键路径，PERT网络中最长的活动系列三、盈亏平衡分析盈亏平衡分析，一种识别全部收入刚好弥补全部成本的平衡点的技术盈亏平衡分析是一种广泛应用的资源分配技术，它可以帮助管理者确定盈亏平衡点四、线性规划线性规划，一种用于解决资源分配问题的数学方法线性规划不能用于解决所有的资源分配问题，因为它要求资源必须是有限的，产出的目标是产出的最优化，必须存在将资源组合起来以创造产出的多种可供选择的组合，以及变量之间存在线性关系（一个变量的变化必须引起其他变量成比例的变化）线性规划给够解决包括选择运费最低的运输路线；将有限的广告预算分配给不同的产品品牌；将人员在不同项目之间最佳地配置；在有限的资源下如何确定最佳的产品组合第三节当前的计划技术项目管理和脚本计划这两种技术都强调柔性，在组织所处的上述环境下，它们对指定更有效的计划来说是非常重要的一、项目管理项目，一次性的一组活动，它具有明确的开始时间和结束时间项目管理，使项目活动按时间进行，不突破预算和符合规范的一种更管理活动项目管理更适合柔性和迅速响应市场机会的要求P243 图表9-13 项目计划过程项目管理者的角色仍然具有挑战性，因为他所管理的人员同时还隶属于其原来的部门项目管理者唯一的影响力是他的沟通技能和说服力项目管理者的一个重要任务，就是如何使项目成员把精力集中在他所管理的特定项目上二、脚本计划脚本，对未来可能是什么样的一种一贯观点脚本计划的目的不是试图预测未来，而是要通过在不同的特定条件下演示可能的潜在状况来降低不确定性P244 图表9-14 防备意外事件。