经济学人双语阅读3
英语阅读-经济学人文章三篇
IF THE Federal Reserve eases monetary policy again at its meeting on September 13th, as I expect, it will be its most meticulously debated, planned and scrutinised move in recent memory. The case for action has been apparent at least since the spring when it became clear the economy would underperform the Fed's repeatedly lowered economic forecasts. Yet Ben Bernanke spent much of the press conference following the Fed's meeting in June, when it extended Operation Twist (the purchase of long-term bonds financed by selling short-term bonds) on the defensive over why the Fed hadn't done more. In August, it again chose not to pull the trigger. But it did release a statement that hinted the point was drawing near. The minutes to that meeting released three weeks later suggested it would take an immediate and powerful improvement in the economy to stay the Fed's hand.When Mr Bernanke made his annual appearance at the Kansas City Fed's economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, today, the world was wondering whether he would send a definitive sign that action was coming. He did not, merely repeating the key sentence from the August statement, that the Fed "will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery." This should not have been surprising; Fed chairmen don't like to front-run the Federal Open Market Committee.Mr Bernanke had a different goal than signaling to Wall Street. Pressure on the Fed has become intense in the last year, from hawks and conservatives (not necessarily, but increasingly, the same) who think the Fed has done all it can do and going further risks inflation, monetisation of the debt, and a loss of credibility for the central bank; and from doves and liberals who accuse Mr Bernanke of having shirked his responsibility and his own prior advice to the Bank of Japan by not more aggressively using the tools and alternative frameworks available to boost employment. That this debate has unfolded against the backdrop of a tight and divisive presidential election has only raised the stakes, because it meant no matter what the Fed does, one party will accuse it of having helped the other win.Since Mr Bernanke could not escape criticism regardless of what the Fed did, tactically he was best served by waiting until the case for action was unambiguous, unsurprising and, most important, well articulated. The data have made the case unambiguous: employment and growth are weak and inflation by the Fed's preferred measure has edged down. By September 13th, it will certainly be unsurprising. Mr Bernanke's task today was to articulate the case.Mr Bernanke has always said the test was whether the benefits of more "quantitative easing" (QE)—the purchase of assets by printing money—exceeded the costs. This is what he did today. On the benefits, he said studies that show the Fed's two previous rounds of QE (large scale asset purchases, or LSAPs in Fed jargon) plus Operation Twist had lowered Treasury yields by 80 to 120 basis points. They have also led to "significant declines in the yields on both corporate bonds...[and] substantial reductions in MBS yields and retail mortgage rates. LSAPs also appear to have boosted stock prices, presumably both by lowering discount rates and by improving the economic outlook." On the economic impact, he reported:“If we are willing to take as a working assumption that the effects of easier financial conditions on the economy are similar to those observed historically, then econometric models can be used to estimate the effects of LSAPs on the economy. Model simulations conducted at the Federal Reserve generally find that the securities purchase programs have provided significant help for the economy. For example, a study using the Board's FRB/US model of the economy found that, as of 2012, the first two rounds of LSAPs may have raised the level of output by almost 3 percent and increased private payroll employment by more than 2 million jobs, relative to what otherwise would have occurred. The Bank of England has used LSAPs in a manner similar to that of the Federal Reserve, so it is of interest that researchers have found the financial and macroeconomic effects of the British programs to be qualitatively similar to those in the United States.”Mr Bernanke also argued that the Fed's forward rate guidance, that is its commitment not to raise rates through the end of 2014, have had a powerful impact on expectations of Fed tightening. In conclusion, he said that "nontraditional policy tools have been and can continue to be effective in providing financial accommodation" (emphasis mine).He then catalogued the potential costs of further easing: impaired market functioning as the Fed's share of total bonds in circulation rose; the potential for asset bubbles if interest rates are kept low for a long time; the threat of inflation if the Fed has trouble exiting from its purchases; and potential losses if the bonds lose value when interest rates rise. Mr Bernanke said "the hurdle for using non-traditional policies should be higher than for traditional policies. At the same time, the costs of non-traditional policies, when considered carefully, appear manageable, implying that we should not rule out the further use of such policies if economic conditions warrant."Do conditions warrant? Yes. As Mr Bernanke put it, "the economic situation is obviously far from satisfactory."If Mr Bernanke has made it clear that the Fed plans to act on September 13th, he has not yet clarified how. The Fed could extend its low-rate guidance past 2014, but Mr Bernanke's speech seemed to assign such a move less efficacy than further bond purchases. If the Fed buys bonds, would it buy Treasurys or MBS or something else? By citing housing as first among the headwinds holding back the economy, and specifying the impact on mortgage rates of prior QE, he made a prima facie case for buying MBS and Treasurys. It is still not clear, though, whether the Fed would announce a fixed amount of purchases over a fixed term, or an open-ended programme (eg, $100 billion per month, keyed to economic conditions).What is fairly certain is that he will not be thanked when it happens. Conservatives will dial up their accusations of reckless Fed activism, and probably add toadying to Barack Obama to the rap sheet. Liberals will decry the Fed for not having gone further, or acted sooner. And in truth, no one can be sure that either is wrong. At today's Jackson Hole conference, there was an animated debate on this question. Adam Posen, whose last day on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is today, decried the "defeatism about policy" which leads people to conclude that if monetary policy isn't working, it must simply be the structure of the economy. In fact the problem is more likely to be impairments to particular financial markets, which can be addressed with assetpurchases in that specific sector (eg, small-business loans). Central banks have shied away from such purchases because of "self-imposed taboos", Mr Posen fretted, such as fears that such purchases would misallocate credit or look like politicised fiscal policy. This, he said, "is a prehistoric way of thinking."Larry Lindsey, a former Fed governor and adviser to George Bush, shot back: "In a free society, individuals and institutions don’t do unusual things because if you do, and break custom and happen to be wrong, you’re betting the farm. It's normal, prudential sort of political behaviour. For our profession, after the last two decades, to realise modesty in what we express and can do, is probably becoming."Mr Bernanke can sympathise with both. When he first joined the Fed in 2002, he was, like most academics, something of a hedgehog, quite sure of the answers and impatient with the fools and cowards who refused to implement them. One of his first speeches as governor made the academic point that when short-term interest rates are at zero, the Fed still has plenty of ammo by printing money, what Milton Friedman euphemistically called dropping money from a helicopter. This was the origin of the epithet "Helicopter Ben". A year after that, he made the same case but with more nuance in Japan. In the intervening years, he has become, as most policymakers do, a fox: the real world contains political constraints and unintended consequences that must be factored in before the academically ideal remedy is applied.The fox in Mr Bernanke appears to have made peace with the hedgehog. His most important audience today was his own colleagues. He needs not just their votes but their full-throated verbal endorsement of the Fed's next move in their speeches they make afterwards. What most outsiders can't appreciate about the job of Fed chairman is that among his unwritten responsibilities is maintaining the integrity and credibility of his institution for his successors. There are two ways this can be lost: by doing too little in the face of either too high unemployment or inflation; the other is by doing too much, with activism that prompts a backlash against the institution, constraining its ability to act again. If Mr Bernanke has calculated correctly, he has found a path between the two.Barren rocks, barren nationalismTHE wave of anti-Japanese protests that has erupted across China, after tit-for-tat landings by ultranationalists on uninhabited islands which the Japanese call the Senkakus and the Chinese the Diaoyus, is alarming. It is a reminder of how a barren group of disputed rocks could upend pain-staking progress in the difficult relations between Asia’s two biggest powers (see article). And the spat even raises the spectre of a conflict that could conceivably draw in America.History always weighs heavily in East Asia, so it is essential to understand the roots of the squabble. China has never formally controlled the Senkakus, and for most Japanese, blithely forgetful of their country’s rapacious, imperial past, possession is nine-tenths of the law. Yet the islands’history is ambiguous. The Senkakus first crept into the record lying in the Chinese realm, just beyond the Ryukyu kingdom, which in the 1870s was absorbed by Japan and renamed Okinawa. The Chinese emperor objected to Japanese attempts to incorporate the Senkakus into Okinawa, but in 1895 Japan did it unilaterally. After Japan’s defeat in 1945 the Americans took over Okinawa’s administration, along with the Senkakus. In the 1951 peace treaty between Japan and the United States, as well as in the agreement to return Okinawa in 1972, the Senkakus’sovereignty was left vague (Taiwan claims them too). The Americans say the dispute is for the parties to resolve amicably.Three decades ago that looked possible. Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China’s modernisation, recognised the risks. When he signed a Treaty of Peace and Friendship with Japan in 1978, the two countries agreed to kick the Senkakus into the long grass. “Our generation”, Deng said, “is not wise enough to find common language on this question. The next generation will be wiser.”His hopes have been dashed.Chinese maritime power is growing, in ways that not only challenge Japan’s control of the Senkakus (but also worry other countries that have maritime disputes with China). Maritime law has evolved with exclusive economic zones around territories (see article). So all the islets have become more valuable. The current squabble began when the right-wing governor of Tokyo declared that the metropolitan government would buy the Senkakus from their indebted private owner, the better to assert Japanese sovereignty. Not to be seen as weak, Yoshihiko Noda, the prime minister, retorted that the Japanese government would buy them instead.The natural solutionWhat can be done? Neither side wants to jeopardise good relations, let alone go to war, over the Senkakus. But the fact that there is a (remote) danger of conflict should prompt both governments to do two things. The long-term task is to defang the more poisonous nationalist serpents in both countries’politics. In Japan that means producing honest textbooks so that schoolchildren can discover what their predecessors did. In China (no promulgator of honest textbooks itself) the government must abandon its habit of using Japanophobia as an outlet for populist anger, when modern Japan has been such a force for peace and prosperity in Asia. But the priority now is to look for ways to minimise the chances of unwished-for conflict, especially in seas swarming withrival vessels.At a minimum that means not only having hotlines between the two governments, but also cast-iron commitments from the Chinese always to pick up the phone. A mechanism to deal with maritime issues between the two countries was set up last year, but crumbled when put to the test. Ideally, both sides should make it clear that military force is not an option. China should undertake not to send official vessels into Japanese waters, as it still occasionally does, and deal more forcefully with militaristic sabre-rattlers like the general who suggested using the Senkakus for bombing practice. Back in 2008 the two countries agreed on a framework for the joint development of disputed gasfields in the East China Sea, though China unpicked this good work when a Chinese trawler rammed a Japanese coastguard vessel near the Senkakus in 2010.As for the Senkakus themselves, Mr Noda’s proposal to buy them would have value if accompanied by a commitment to leave them unvisited. And it would be easier to face down the nationalists if America acknowledged its own past role in sweeping competing claims over the Senkakus under the carpet. Our own suggestion is for governments to agree to turn the Senkakus and the seas round them—along with other rocks contested by Japan and South Korea—into pioneering marine protected areas. As well as preventing war between humans, it would help other species. Thanks to decades of overfishing, too few fish swim in those waters anyway.CHARLOTTE, N.C. — A day after fumbling a predictable and straightforward question posed by Mitt Romney last week — are Americans better off than they were four years ago — the Obama campaign provided a response on Monday that it said would be hammered home during the Democratic convention here this week: “Absolutely.”The focus on the campaign’s handling of the question, after halting and contradictory responses from Democrats on Sunday, complicated the White House’s effort to begin striking a set of themes the president intends to highlight here and carry through the general election.That effort starts with an argument that Mr. Romney, the Republican nominee, would raise taxes on the middle class while cutting them for the wealthy. It seeks to pitch forward to the next four years the case that Mr. Obama and his allies have made over the spring and summer — that Mr. Romney’s business career showed him intent on profit even at the expense of workers and that his wealth has given him tax advantages not enjoyed by regular people.“The problem is everybody’s already seen his economic playbook,” Mr. Obama said at a campaign stop in Ohio before a Labor Day audience largely consisting of United Auto Workers union members. “On first down he hikes taxes by nearly $2,000 on the average family with kids in order to pay for a massive tax cut for multimillionaires.”The Obama campaign began running a new commercial making the same point, and asserting, “The middle class is carrying a heavy load in America, but Romney doesn’t see it.”As delegates streamed in for the opening of the convention on Tuesday, Mr. Obama and his team were putting the finishing touches on a program that requires a different kind of political daring from the one they showed four years ago, when Mr. Obama gave his speech in a stadium on a stage compared by some to a Greek temple.This week Mr. Obama is planning to undertake a tricky two-step of convincing wavering supporters being aggressively courted by Mr. Romney that they made the right decision in choosing him four years ago and that he has the country on its way to a sustainable recovery even if they do not always feel it. He will make the argument in an outdoor stadium again, on Thursday night under the threat of rain, but aides say there will be no Greek columns.Obama campaign aides indicated they were moving into a new phase, applying their case that Mr. Romney has no history of looking out for the middle class to the question of what the next four years would look like under a Romney presidency.But Republicans showed that they were not going to give Mr. Obama a free ride this week, with Mr. Romney’s running mate, Representativ e Paul D. Ryan, coming to North Carolina to keep the focus on the last four years.“The president can say a lot of things, and he will, but he can’t tell you that you’re better off,” Mr. Ryan said on Monday at a rally in Greenville, N.C. “Simply put, the J immy Carter years look like the good old days compared to where we are right now.”Mr. Obama’s aides initially appeared to stumble when television interviewers asked them to respond to Mr. Romney’s charge in his nomination acceptance speech Thursday night that Americans were not better off under Mr. Obama.On Fox News Channel, Mr. Obama’s top strategist, David Axelrod, said, “We’re in a better position than we were four years ago in our economy.” But Gov. Martin O’Malley of Maryland, a Democrat, answered “no” on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” though he blamed Republicans. Other aides equivocated.Mr. O’Malley provided another answer on Monday on CNN: “We are clearly better off as a country because we’re creating jobs rather than losing them. We have not recovered all that we lost in the Bush recession. That’s why we need to continue to move forward.”In fact, on Monday the campaign settled on a definitive answer of, as the deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter put it, “Absolutely.”。
经济学人双语阅读：德国武器公司 不和武器说再见
【经济学人】双语阅读：德国武器公司不和武器说再见Business商业报道German weapons firms德国武器公司No farewell to arms不和武器说再见Political pressure and bribery allegations are unlikely to hurt Germany's exporters of military equipment.看起来政治压力和受贿指控都不会影响德国的军事装备出口公司。
SINCE the second world war, Germany has rarely sent soldiers to combat zones.自二战以来，德国几乎不曾向战争地区派兵。
But it exports a lot of weapons: more than Britain, France or any other country besides America and Russia.然而它却出口了大量武器：超过英国、法国以及除美国、俄罗斯之外的所有其他国家。
Some German makers of military gear are part of civilian industrial giants, such as Airbus Group, and ThyssenKrupp, a steelmaker.德国的武器制造商中有些隶属于私有的工业巨头，比如空客集团，还有钢铁制造商蒂森克虏伯集团。
But the biggest German company known mainly for weapons, Rheinmetall, is just 26th in the world league of arms-exporting firms.然而，即使是德国著名的以武器业务为主的公司中最大的莱茵金属公司，在世界武器出口公司中也仅仅排在26位。
16英语阅读-经济学人《Economics》双语版-Like pearls falling into a jade plate
Like pearls falling into a jade plate大珠小珠落玉盘WHEN Wu Man arrived in New Haven1, Connecticut, from Beijing in 1990 she spoke no English and ★gambled on[1] surviving with the help of her pipa, a traditional lute-like Chinese instrument. She has succeeded (A) （triumph）,working her way from New York's Chinatown to Carnegie Hall2, where she gives her debut recital on April 6th.The pipa is a sonorous, four-stringed, pear-shaped instrument held upright on the lap. Its strings used to be silk but are now steel, which resonates better. The fake fingernails on Ms Wu's right hand ★pluck[2] the strings, while her left hand fingers the ★frets[3]. （1）She produces an (B) (astonish) range of colours and moods from a 2,000-year-old instrument which produces a sound, observed a poet from the Tang dynasty, like “pearls falling into a jade plate”.Ms Wu is a ★virtuoso[4] interpreter of traditional music, creating (C) （haunt）exotic waves of sound with ★pi zzicatos and tremolos[5] (the plucking of one string with all five fingers consecutively). But (D) （evoke） of dropping pearls soon fade to Jimi Hendrix3. During her time in America, （2）Ms Wu has daringly expanded the pipa's range, playing jazz, bluegrass4 and Bollywood5 with eclectic instrumentalists—and inspiring (E) (number) works from prominent composers.The pipa can sound gently lyrical or(F) （aggress） modern, which is why, says Ms Wu, it attracts such composers as Terry Riley, Philip Glass, Tan Dun and Bright Sheng, all of whom have written for her. She was the first to partner the pipa with an endongo (an eight-stringed Ugandan instrument), an Appalachian banjo and a string quartet6. She was also, she says, the first to play jazz on the pipa.All this happened after she arrived in America. Young Chinese musicians are now ubiquitous in American and European conservatories, competitions and concert halls, but during China's cultural revolution the performance of Western music was greatly restricted. Traditional instruments, however, were(G) （courage）,and Ms Wu, born in 1964 in Hangzhou, began studying the pipa when she was nine.She entered the Beijing Central Conservatory of Music (where she heard Western music for the first time) and became the first (H) （receive）of a masters degree in the pipa. She was awarded a ★tenured[6] faculty position. But her curiosity about the West proved (I) （resist）. Colleagues who had emigrated to the United States warned her that there was no interest in Chinese traditional music, （3）but, undaunted, she packed seven instruments (including pipas, a zither and a dulcimer) and set off.During the first two difficult years she learnt English and cried a lot. She joined other Chinese musicians and began performing in New York's Chinatown,(J) （rehearse） in the basement of a dry-cleaner. （4）American musicians would approach her after concerts,(K) （fascination）.David Harrington of the Kronos Quartet said that the first time he heard her play was like the first time he heard Jascha Heifetz, a master violinist.Mr Harrington chose her to perform in the quartet's recent Bollywood-(L) （inspiration） recording because he wanted one person to create many different sounds. （5）Ms Wu, with her “large sonic vocabulary”, was uniquely qualified. She also attracted the attention of Yo Yo Ma, a cellist with whom she now frequently performs as a member of his Silk Road★Ensemble[7].Pipa players and audiences in China are also becoming more open minded; she caused(M) （exciting） when she performed in Beijing with the Kronos Quartet ten years ago. “That's my hope,” she says, “that （6）the next generation know there is another way for traditional instruments to survive.”[QUIZ]1. 用文中空白后括号内单词的适当（相关）形式填空（可以是动词、形容词及副词，注意时态、语态、比较级乃至派生词等），每空只填一词：如：WHEN Wu Man ________(arrival) in New Haven, Connecticut, from Beijing in 1990 she spoke no English.此空白处应填arrived.（欢迎就出题方式提出您的宝贵意见）2. 将文中划线部分翻译成英语：[NOTES](LONGMAN)[1]gamble v.以……为赌注，孤注一掷to do something that involves a lot of risk, and that will not succeed unless things happen the way you would like them togamble onThey're gambling on Johnson being fit for Saturday's game.gamble something on somethingPotter gambled everything on his new play being a hit.[2]pluck v.弹拨to pull the strings of a musical instrumentpluck atSomeone was plucking at the strings of an old guitar.[3]fret n.音品；安在某些弦乐器如吉他弹拨处的一个或多个隆起物one of the raised lines on the fretboard of a guitar etc[4] virtuoso plural virtuososn. 技术超群的表演者（尤指音乐）someone who is a very skilful performer, especially in music:violin virtuoso Stephane Grappelli—virtuoso adjective [only before noun]a virtuoso performancea virtuoso pianist[5] pizzicatos and tremolos拨奏曲和颤音[6]tenure[UC]享有终身教授的权利 the right to stay permanently in a teaching job: It's becoming increasingly difficult to acquire academic tenure. —tenured adjective:a tenured professora tenured position[7]ensemble <法>全体, [音]合唱曲, 全体演出者[TIPS & BACKGROUND]1. 纽黑文（New Haven）：美国康涅狄格州（Connecticut）南部城市，临长岛海湾，对外贸易港口。
考研英语阅读理解外刊原文经济学人
A global house-price slump is coming全球房价即将暴跌It won’t blow up the financial system, but it will be scary虽然不会摧毁金融体系，但仍然令人恐慌Over the past decade owning a house has meant easy money. Prices rose reliably for years and then went bizarrely ballistic in the pandemic. Yet today if your wealth is tied up in bricks and mortar it is time to get nervous.过去十年里，拥有一套房就意味着轻松赚钱。
房价多年来一直稳步上涨，甚至在疫情期间还异乎寻常地飙升了。
然而现如今，如果你的财富被套牢在房产上，那你应该感到紧张了。
House prices are now falling in nine rich economies. The drops in America are small so far, but in the wildest markets they are already dramatic. In condo-crazed Canada homes cost 9% less than they did in February.九个发达经济体的房价都在下跌。
到目前为止，美国房价的跌幅还不大，但最疯狂的市场的房价跌幅已经非常大了。
在热衷于共管公寓的加拿大，房价较今年2月下跌了9%。
As inflation and recession stalk the world a deepening correction is likely—even estate agents are gloomy. Although this will not detonate global banks as in 2007-09, it will intensify the downturn, leave a cohort of people with wrecked finances and start a political storm.随着通货膨胀和经济衰退的风险在全球范围内蔓延，房价或将迎来一场深度调整——甚至房地产经纪人也对此感到悲观。
经济学人_英文阅读_030
EgyptStreet fightJul 6th 2013, 16:19 by N.M. | CAIRO∙∙TweetFRIDAYS in Egypt are traditionally a day of prayer, and increasingly a day of political protest. This past Friday, July 5th, supporters of the country's deposed president, Muhammad Morsi, gathered outside the Cairo headquarters of the Republican Guard, where Mr Morsi is thought to be detained. There and elsewhere around the country the scene turned violent, leaving at least 30 people dead and hundreds more wounded.Egypt now stands divided between supporters of Mr Morsi, who feel a legitimate leader has been usurped, and his opponents, who despised the president's incompetence. Mr Morsi and his fellow Muslim Brothers angered many by failing to form an inclusive government, feeding fears that they were bent on Islamising Egyptian society. But the president's ouster has left Egypt with a troubling dilemma. As Samer Shehata, a professor at the University of Oklahoma, notes, the country's politics "are dominated by democrats who are not liberals and liberals who are not democrats."Mr Morsi’s supporters have vowed to stay in the streets until the former presidentis reinstated. That could mean more bloodshed. Battles between Islamist protesters, their civilian opponents, and Egyptian security forces raged throughout the night on Friday. The violence extended beyond Cairo, with at least 14 dead in Alexandria and five soldiers and police officers killed in the Sinai Peninsula.Egypt was teetering on the brink befo re this week’s coup, plagued by political polarisation, a moribund economy, and social tensions that have included a rise in crime, sexual violence and sectarian strife. Now Fitch, a ratings agency, has downgraded the nation, while the African Union has suspended it from its club. But the coup has received a largely positive response from Arab leaders, some of whom face their own challenges from the Muslim Brotherhood. America's reaction, meanwhile, has been ambivalent.The Brotherhood now finds itself in a familiar role, that of oppressed opposition group. State television has given short shrift to the pro-Morsi demonstrations, while Egypt's interim president, Adly Mansour, dissolved the Islamist-dominated upper house of parliament on Friday. As pro- and anti-Morsi activists settle into different squares in the capital the army is preparing to announce key government posts. But the Brotherhood has rejected the army's invitation to take part in the transition process, viewing the country's new leaders as "usurper authorities". Egypt's crisis seems set to deepen.。
经济学人双语阅读：电动汽车 充电进入美国
【经济学人】双语阅读：电动汽车充电进入美国Business商业报道Electric cars电动汽车Charging into America充电进入美国Chinese firms are keen on America's battery-vehicle market中国公司致力于美国电动车公司市场TESLA, an American electric-car manufacturer, is the darling of investors and the most visible success in a business more notable for its failures.美国电动车制造商TESLA是投资者们的宠儿，相比较该行业的失败之处，它也是最显著的成功。
The praise it has attracted is encouraging Chinese firms to try to enter the American market. 它所赢得的赞赏激励中国公司试图进入美国市场。
A Hong Kong company and a mainland firm are battling for control of Fisker, a failed maker of hybrid-electric cars based in California; a court hearing due on January 10th will consider creditors' calls for an open auction.一家香港公司和大陆公司正在为Fisker的管理控制权而争夺不休。
Fisker是加利福尼亚一家倒闭的混合动力汽车制造商。
1月10日的庭审将考虑债权人所要求的公开拍卖。
And BYD, another Chinese mainland firm, said this week it would start selling its own electric cars in America next year.另一家中国公司BYD本周表示明年起将在美国出售自己的电动车。
最新英语阅读-经济学人文章三篇
IF THE Federal Reserve eases monetary policy again at its meeting on 1September 13th, as I expect, it will be its most meticulously debated, 2planned and scrutinised move in recent memory. The case for action has 3been apparent at least since the spring when it became clear the economy 4would underperform the Fed's repeatedly lowered economic forecasts. Yet 5Ben Bernanke spent much of the press conference following the Fed's 6meeting in June, when it extended Operation Twist (the purchase of 7long-term bonds financed by selling short-term bonds) on the defensive 8over why the Fed hadn't done more. In August, it again chose not to pull 9the trigger. But it did release a statement that hinted the point was 10drawing near. The minutes to that meeting released three weeks later 11suggested it would take an immediate and powerful improvement in the 12economy to stay the Fed's hand.1314When Mr Bernanke made his annual appearance at the Kansas City Fed's 15economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, today, the world was 16wondering whether he would send a definitive sign that action was coming.17He did not, merely repeating the key sentence from the August statement, 18that the Fed "will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to 19promote a stronger economic recovery." This should not have been 20surprising; Fed chairmen don't like to front-run the Federal Open Market 21Committee.2223Mr Bernanke had a different goal than signaling to Wall Street. Pressure 24on the Fed has become intense in the last year, from hawks and 25conservatives (not necessarily, but increasingly, the same) who think the 26Fed has done all it can do and going further risks inflation, monetisation 27of the debt, and a loss of credibility for the central bank; and from doves 28and liberals who accuse Mr Bernanke of having shirked his responsibility 29and his own prior advice to the Bank of Japan by not more aggressively 30using the tools and alternative frameworks available to boost employment.31That this debate has unfolded against the backdrop of a tight and divisive 32presidential election has only raised the stakes, because it meant no 33matter what the Fed does, one party will accuse it of having helped the 34other win.3536Since Mr Bernanke could not escape criticism regardless of what the Fed 37did, tactically he was best served by waiting until the case for action 38was unambiguous, unsurprising and, most important, well articulated. The 39data have made the case unambiguous: employment and growth are weak and 40inflation by the Fed's preferred measure has edged down. By September 13th, 41it will certainly be unsurprising. Mr Bernanke's task today was to 42articulate the case.4344Mr Bernanke has always said the test was whether the benefits of more 45"quantitative easing" (QE)—the purchase of assets by printing money 46—exceeded the costs. This is what he did today. On the benefits, he said 47studies that show the Fed's two previous rounds of QE (large scale asset 48purchases, or LSAPs in Fed jargon) plus Operation Twist had lowered 49Treasury yields by 80 to 120 basis points. They have also led to 50"significant declines in the yields on both corporate bonds...[and] 51substantial reductions in MBS yields and retail mortgage rates. LSAPs also 52appear to have boosted stock prices, presumably both by lowering discount 53rates and by improving the economic outlook." On the economic impact, he 54reported:5556“57If we are willing to take as a working assumption that the effects of 58easier financial conditions on the economy are similar to those observed 59historically, then econometric models can be used to estimate the effects 60of LSAPs on the economy. Model simulations conducted at the Federal 61Reserve generally find that the securities purchase programs have 62provided significant help for the economy. For example, a study using the 63Board's FRB/US model of the economy found that, as of 2012, the first two 64rounds of LSAPs may have raised the level of output by almost 3 percent 65and increased private payroll employment by more than 2 million jobs, 66relative to what otherwise would have occurred. The Bank of England has 67used LSAPs in a manner similar to that of the Federal Reserve, so it is 68of interest that researchers have found the financial and macroeconomic 69effects of the British programs to be qualitatively similar to those in 70the United States.”7172Mr Bernanke also argued that the Fed's forward rate guidance, that is 73its commitment not to raise rates through the end of 2014, have had a 74powerful impact on expectations of Fed tightening. In conclusion, he said 75that "nontraditional policy tools have been and can continue to be 76effective in providing financial accommodation" (emphasis mine).7778He then catalogued the potential costs of further easing: impaired 79market functioning as the Fed's share of total bonds in circulation rose;80the potential for asset bubbles if interest rates are kept low for a long 81time; the threat of inflation if the Fed has trouble exiting from its 82purchases; and potential losses if the bonds lose value when interest 83rates rise. Mr Bernanke said "the hurdle for using non-traditional 84policies should be higher than for traditional policies. At the same time, 85the costs of non-traditional policies, when considered carefully, appear 86manageable, implying that we should not rule out the further use of such 87policies if economic conditions warrant."8889Do conditions warrant? Yes. As Mr Bernanke put it, "the economic 90situation is obviously far from satisfactory."9192If Mr Bernanke has made it clear that the Fed plans to act on September 9313th, he has not yet clarified how. The Fed could extend its low-rate 94guidance past 2014, but Mr Bernanke's speech seemed to assign such a move 95less efficacy than further bond purchases. If the Fed buys bonds, would 96it buy Treasurys or MBS or something else? By citing housing as first among 97the headwinds holding back the economy, and specifying the impact on 98mortgage rates of prior QE, he made a prima facie case for buying MBS and 99Treasurys. It is still not clear, though, whether the Fed would announce 100a fixed amount of purchases over a fixed term, or an open-ended programme 101(eg, $100 billion per month, keyed to economic conditions).102103What is fairly certain is that he will not be thanked when it happens. 104Conservatives will dial up their accusations of reckless Fed activism, 105and probably add toadying to Barack Obama to the rap sheet. Liberals will 106decry the Fed for not having gone further, or acted sooner. And in truth, 107no one can be sure that either is wrong. At today's Jackson Hole conference, 108there was an animated debate on this question. Adam Posen, whose last day 109on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is today, decried the 110"defeatism about policy" which leads people to conclude that if monetary 111policy isn't working, it must simply be the structure of the economy. In 112fact the problem is more likely to be impairments to particular financial 113markets, which can be addressed with asset purchases in that specific 114sector (eg, small-business loans). Central banks have shied away from such 115purchases because of "self-imposed taboos", Mr Posen fretted, such as 116fears that such purchases would misallocate credit or look like 117politicised fiscal policy. This, he said, "is a prehistoric way of 118thinking."119120Larry Lindsey, a former Fed governor and adviser to George Bush, shot 121back: "In a free society, individuals and institutions don’t do unusual 122things because if you do, and break custom and happen to be wrong, you’123re betting the farm. It's normal, prudential sort of political behaviour. 124For our profession, after the last two decades, to realise modesty in what 125we express and can do, is probably becoming."126127Mr Bernanke can sympathise with both. When he first joined the Fed in 1282002, he was, like most academics, something of a hedgehog, quite sure 129of the answers and impatient with the fools and cowards who refused to 130implement them. One of his first speeches as governor made the academic 131point that when short-term interest rates are at zero, the Fed still has 132plenty of ammo by printing money, what Milton Friedman euphemistically 133called dropping money from a helicopter. This was the origin of the epithet 134"Helicopter Ben". A year after that, he made the same case but with more 135nuance in Japan. In the intervening years, he has become, as most 136policymakers do, a fox: the real world contains political constraints and 137unintended consequences that must be factored in before the academically 138ideal remedy is applied.139140The fox in Mr Bernanke appears to have made peace with the hedgehog. 141His most important audience today was his own colleagues. He needs not 142just their votes but their full-throated verbal endorsement of the Fed's 143next move in their speeches they make afterwards. What most outsiders 144can't appreciate about the job of Fed chairman is that among his unwritten 145responsibilities is maintaining the integrity and credibility of his 146institution for his successors. There are two ways this can be lost: by 147doing too little in the face of either too high unemployment or inflation; 148the other is by doing too much, with activism that prompts a backlash 149against the institution, constraining its ability to act again. If Mr 150Bernanke has calculated correctly, he has found a path between the two. 151152153154155156157158159Barren rocks, barren nationalism160THE wave of anti-Japanese protests that has erupted across China, after 161tit-for-tat landings by ultranationalists on uninhabited islands which 162the Japanese call the Senkakus and the Chinese the Diaoyus, is alarming. 163It is a reminder of how a barren group of disputed rocks could upend 164pain-staking progress in the difficult relations between Asia’s two 165biggest powers (see article). And the spat even raises the spectre of a 166conflict that could conceivably draw in America.167168History always weighs heavily in East Asia, so it is essential to 169understand the roots of the squabble. China has never formally controlled 170the Senkakus, and for most Japanese, blithely forgetful of their country’171s rapacious, imperial past, possession is nine-tenths of the law. Yet the 172islands’ history is ambiguous. The Senkakus first crept into the record 173lying in the Chinese realm, just beyond the Ryukyu kingdom, which in the 1741870s was absorbed by Japan and renamed Okinawa. The Chinese emperor 175objected to Japanese attempts to incorporate the Senkakus into Okinawa, 176but in 1895 Japan did it unilaterally. After Japan’s defeat in 1945 the 177Americans took over Okinawa’s administration, along with the Senkakus. 178In the 1951 peace treaty between Japan and the United States, as well as 179in the agreement to return Okinawa in 1972, the Senkakus’ sovereignty 180was left vague (Taiwan claims them too). The Americans say the dispute 181is for the parties to resolve amicably.182Three decades ago that looked possible. Deng Xiaoping, the architect 183of China’s modernisation, recognised the risks. When he signed a Treaty 184of Peace and Friendship with Japan in 1978, the two countries agreed to 185kick the Senkakus into the long grass. “Our generation”, Deng said, “is 186not wise enough to find common language on this question. The next 187generation will be wiser.” His hopes have been dashed.188189Chinese maritime power is growing, in ways that not only challenge 190Japan’s control of the Senkakus (but also worry other countries that have 191maritime disputes with China). Maritime law has evolved with exclusive 192economic zones around territories (see article). So all the islets have 193become more valuable. The current squabble began when the right-wing 194governor of Tokyo declared that the metropolitan government would buy the 195Senkakus from their indebted private owner, the better to assert Japanese 196sovereignty. Not to be seen as weak, Yoshihiko Noda, the prime minister, 197retorted that the Japanese government would buy them instead.198199The natural solution200201What can be done? Neither side wants to jeopardise good relations, let 202alone go to war, over the Senkakus. But the fact that there is a (remote) 203danger of conflict should prompt both governments to do two things. The 204long-term task is to defang the more poisonous nationalist serpents in 205both countries’ politics. In Japan that means producing honest textbooks 206so that schoolchildren can discover what their predecessors did. In China 207(no promulgator of honest textbooks itself) the government must abandon 208its habit of using Japanophobia as an outlet for populist anger, when 209modern Japan has been such a force for peace and prosperity in Asia. But 210the priority now is to look for ways to minimise the chances of 211unwished-for conflict, especially in seas swarming with rival vessels. 212213At a minimum that means not only having hotlines between the two 214governments, but also cast-iron commitments from the Chinese always to 215pick up the phone. A mechanism to deal with maritime issues between the 216two countries was set up last year, but crumbled when put to the test. 217Ideally, both sides should make it clear that military force is not an 218option. China should undertake not to send official vessels into Japanese 219waters, as it still occasionally does, and deal more forcefully with 220militaristic sabre-rattlers like the general who suggested using the 221Senkakus for bombing practice. Back in 2008 the two countries agreed on 222a framework for the joint development of disputed gasfields in the East 223China Sea, though China unpicked this good work when a Chinese trawler 224rammed a Japanese coastguard vessel near the Senkakus in 2010.225226As for the Senkakus themselves, Mr Noda’s proposal to buy them would 227have value if accompanied by a commitment to leave them unvisited. And 228it would be easier to face down the nationalists if America acknowledged 229its own past role in sweeping competing claims over the Senkakus under 230the carpet. Our own suggestion is for governments to agree to turn the 231Senkakus and the seas round them—along with other rocks contested by 232Japan and South Korea—into pioneering marine protected areas. As well 233as preventing war between humans, it would help other species. Thanks to 234decades of overfishing, too few fish swim in those waters anyway.235236237238CHARLOTTE, N.C. — A day after fumbling a predictable and 239straightforward question posed by Mitt Romney last week —are Americans 240better off than they were four years ago — the Obama campaign provided 241a response on Monday that it said would be hammered home during the 242Democratic convention here this week: “Absolutely.”243The focus on the campaign’s handling of the question, after halting 244and contradictory responses from Democrats on Sunday, complicated the 245White House’s effort to begin striking a set of themes the president 246intends to highlight here and carry through the general election.247That effort starts with an argument that Mr. Romney, the Republican 248nominee, would raise taxes on the middle class while cutting them for the 249wealthy. It seeks to pitch forward to the next four years the case that 250Mr. Obama and his allies have made over the spring and summer —that Mr. 251Romney’s business caree r showed him intent on profit even at the expense 252of workers and that his wealth has given him tax advantages not enjoyed 253by regular people.254“The problem is everybody’s already seen his economic playbook,” Mr. 255Obama said at a campaign stop in Ohio before a Labor Day audience largely 256consisting of United Auto Workers union members. “On first down he hikes 257taxes by nearly $2,000 on the average family with kids in order to pay 258for a massive tax cut for multimillionaires.”259The Obama campaign began running a new commercial making the same point, 260and asserting, “The middle class is carrying a heavy load in America, 261but Romney doesn’t see it.”262As delegates streamed in for the opening of the convention on Tuesday, 263Mr. Obama and his team were putting the finishing touches on a program 264that requires a different kind of political daring from the one they showed 265four years ago, when Mr. Obama gave his speech in a stadium on a stage 266compared by some to a Greek temple.267This week Mr. Obama is planning to undertake a tricky two-step of 268convincing wavering supporters being aggressively courted by Mr. Romney 269that they made the right decision in choosing him four years ago and that 270he has the country on its way to a sustainable recovery even if they do 271not always feel it. He will make the argument in an outdoor stadium again, 272on Thursday night under the threat of rain, but aides say there will be 273no Greek columns.274Obama campaign aides indicated they were moving into a new phase, 275applying their case that Mr. Romney has no history of looking out for the 276middle class to the question of what the next four years would look like 277under a Romney presidency.278But Republicans showed that they were not going to give Mr. Obama a free 279ride this week, with Mr. Romney’s running mate, Representati ve Paul D. 280Ryan, coming to North Carolina to keep the focus on the last four years. 281“The president can say a lot of things, and he will, but he can’t tell 282you that you’re better off,” Mr. Ryan said on Monday at a rally in 283Greenville, N.C. “Simply put, the Jimmy Carter years look like the good 284old days compared to where we are right now.”285Mr. Obama’s aides initially appeared to stumble when television 286interviewers asked them to respond to Mr. Romney’s charge in his 287nomination acceptance speech Thursday night that Americans were not 288better off under Mr. Obama.289On Fox News Channel, Mr. Obama’s top strategist, David Axelrod, said, 290“We’re in a better position than we were four years ago in our economy.” 291But Gov. Martin O’Malley of Maryland, a Democrat, answered “no” on 292CBS’s “Face the Nation,” though he blamed Republicans. Other aides 293equivocated.294Mr. O’Malley provided another answer on Monday on CNN: “We are clearly 295better off as a country because we’re creating jobs rather than losing 296them. We have not recovered all that we lost in the Bush recession. That’s 297why we need to continue to move forward.”298In fact, on Monday the campaign settled on a definitive answer of, as 299the deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter put it, “Absolutely.”300301302。
经济学人双语阅读：三维压制 第三世界的发展空间
【经济学人】双语阅读：三维压制第三世界的发展空间Science and technology科学技术3D printing三维压制A third-world dimension第三世界的发展空间A new manufacturing technique could help poor countries as well as rich ones一项新的制造技术能够对贫困国家有所帮助，就像对那些富有国家的帮助一样。
EVERY summer, Seattle holds a raft race in Green Lake, a park that is the eponymous home of the water the rafts must cross.每年夏天，西雅图都会在绿湖举行一场木筏比赛，参加比赛的木筏必须渡过这个湖，这里的公园因其湖水而闻名。
Entries for the Milk Carton Derby have to be made from old plastic milk bottles.参加这场同城牛奶盒比赛的木筏必须是由旧的塑料牛奶盒制成。
The result is a wonderfully Heath-Robinson collection of improvised craft.结果，你就会看到一场奇妙的希思-鲁宾逊简易工艺展。
But this year one stood out: the entry from the University of Washington's engineering department actually looked like a boat.但是今年，有一个参赛的木筏特别引人注目：这个木筏是华盛顿大学工程系做的，看起来真的像一只船。
The students who built it, Matthew Rogge, Bethany Weeks and Brandon Bowman, had shredded and melted their bottles, and then used a 3D printer to print themselves a plastic vessel.制造这个木筏的学生—马修罗格、伯斯尼威克斯和布兰登伯曼，把他们收集的塑料盒切碎后再熔化，再使用一种三维压印技术压印成一种塑料容器。
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经济学人杂志双语阅读：Fatalism v fetishism宿命论VS进口至上说Economics focus经济聚焦Fatalism v fetishism宿命论VS进口至上说Jun 11th 2009From The Economist print editionHow will developing countries grow after the financial crisis?金融危机后发展中国家将如何成长？FORTY years ago Singapore, now home to the world's busiest port, was a forlorn outpost still garrisoned by the British. In 1961 South Korea was less industrialised than the communist north and dependent on American aid. In 1978 China's exports amounted to less than 5% of its GDP. These countries, and many of their neighbours, have since traded their way out of poverty. Given their success, it is easy to forget that some development economists were once prey to “export fatalism”. Poor countries, they believed, had little to gain from venturing into the world market. If they tried to expand their exports, they would thwart each other, driving down the price of their commodities.现今世界最繁忙的港口坐落于新加坡-在40年前它还只是英国人驻军的遥远哨所。
1961年的南朝鲜靠美国援助度日，在产业化的路上远远落后于他们北面的社会主义邻居。
1987年的中国出口额占GDP总量不到5%。
之后，这些国家和他们的邻居们靠开放商路脱离了贫穷。
在这些国家成功的光环下，过去许多发展经济学家深受“出口宿命说”(注一)折磨的往事被淡忘了。
他们曾经相信，穷国投身全球市场并无利可图。
一旦他们试图扩大出口，那么穷国之间便会互相伤害并造成他们出产的商品价格下降。
The financial crisis of the past nine months is stirring a new export fatalism in the minds of some economists. Even after the global economy recovers, developing countries may find it harder to pursue a policy of “export-led growth”, which served countries like South Korea so well. Under this strategy, sometimes called “export fetishism”, countries spur sales abroad, often by keeping their curr encies cheap. Some save the proceeds in foreign-currency reserves, rather than spending them on imports. This strategy is one reason why the developing world's current-account surplus exceeded $700 billion in 2008, as measured by the IMF. In the past, these surpluses were offset by American deficits. But America may now rethink the bargain. This imbalance, whereby foreigners sell their goods to America in exchange for its assets, was one potential cause of the country's financial crisis.过去九个月里的金融危机在某些经济学家的脑海里搅起了新的出口宿命论。
就算是在金融危机过后，也许发展中国家也可能会觉得他们要想采用那种使南朝鲜一类的国家受益颇多的“出口带动型增长”政策变得更加困难了。
在这种被称为“出口至上主义”的策略下，政府常以保持本国货币的廉价来激励跨国贸易。
一些国家选择把出口收益存入外汇储备，而不是用它们来进口。
国际货币基金组织统计出，2008年发展中国家的经常账户(注二)有7千亿美元的结余，这(出口至上主义的策略)也许就是原因之一。
在过去，这些结余会被美国的贸易逆差抵消。
但是美国现在可能要重新考虑一下这笔交易了。
外国人通过此类失衡来出售货物给美国人以换取美国资产，这也是美国金融危机的潜在原因之一。
If this global bargain does come unstuck, how should developing countries respond? In a new paper*, Dani Rodrik of Harvard University offers a novel suggestion. He argues that developing countries should continue to promote exportables, but no longer promote exports. What's the difference? An exportable is a good that could be traded across borders, but need not be. Mr Rodrik's recommended policies would help countries make more of these exportables, without selling quite so many abroad.若这种全球交易确实还可行，发展中国家该如何应对？哈弗大学的Dani Rodrik (注三)在他的新论文中提供了一个新颖的建议。
他认为发展中国家应该继续鼓励“可出口”，但不要促进“出口”。
这两者的差异是什么呢？“可出口”指那些可以但不必出口的货物。
Mr Rodrik所推荐的政策会帮助发展中国家生产更多的“可出口”货物同时避免将它们大量售往国外。
Countries grow by shifting labour and investment from traditional activities, where productivity is stagnant, to new industries, which abound in economies of scale or opportunities to assimilate better techniques. These new industries usually make exportable goods, such as cotton textiles or toys. But whatever the fetishists believe, there is nothing special about the act of exporting per se, Mr Rodrik argues. For example, companies do not need to venture abroad to feel the bracing sting of international competition. If their products can be traded across borders, then foreign rivals can compete with them at home.当生产力停滞后，国家通过从传统经济活动中转移劳力和投资到新兴产业里来成长，这些新产业大量存在于规模经济或是那些吸纳了更先进技术的商机中。
这类新产业往往制造的是“可出口”货物，像是棉织物或玩具。
但是Mr Rodrik也谈到，无论贸易至上主义者怎么想，出口本身并无异处。
举例来说，公司并不一定要冒险开展国外业务来受国际竞争的刺激。
一旦他们的货品被出口，那么国外竞争者便将可以在本国土地上展开反击。
As countries industrialise and diversify, their exports grow, which sometimes results in a trade surplus. These three things tend to go together. But in a statistical “horse race” between the three-industrialisation, exports and exportsminus imports-Mr Rodrik finds that it is the growth of tradable, industrial goods, as a share of GDP, that does most of the work.伴随着国家产业化和产品多样化进程的是出口增加，这有时会带来贸易过剩。
这三种状况相伴相生。
但在产业化，出口和净出口的数据化对比中，Mr Rodrik发现，作为GDP的一部分，是“可交易”的产业产品起了主要作用。
How do you promote exportables without promoting exports? Cheap currencies will not do the trick. They serve as a subsidy to exports, but also act like a tax on imports. They encourage the production of tradable goods, but discourage their consumption-which is why producers look for buyers abroad.那如何来刺激“可出口”同时避免促进出口呢？廉价货币办不到。