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Source: AuthNoorste’ sc:a"lcAulla"teiovnesntbsainsecldudoencMonacdlduidseodn, (o2n0-g0o3i)ndgaatnad. sub-events.
Notes: “All” oCuotpnucltuddreodpesviennctlsudareecfounllcyluodbesedr,voendgwointhginatnhde ssuamb-pelveepnetrsi.oCd oncluded drops are fully observewdhweritehains othnegosianmg epvleenptesrhioadd wnohteernedaesdobnygo2i0n0g1darnodpsthhead not ended by 2001 and the duration daunrdatlioosnsafnodr ltohsessfeodr rtohpesseaerveecnatslcaurelacteadlcualsastuedmainssgutmhaintgthe drops ended in 2002.
FiscalRisks
PaoloMauro FiscalAffairsDepartment InternatioFra Baidu bibliotekalMonetaryFund
Introduction
• Fiscal Risks: Deviations of fiscal outturns (deficits, debt/GDP) from expectations at the time of the budget or other fiscal forecasts.
that the events ended in 2002.
Table 3. Frequency of Output Event Conditional on Shock divided by Frequency of Output Event Conditional on No Shock
Financial and macroeconomic shocks Currency crisis Banking crisis Debt crisis Sudden stops
expected cost • Bivariate, then multivariate (probit)
approach • Causality (timing)
10000 9000
Argentina GDP per capita
Currency crisis and Terms of trade shock
• How large and frequent are the deviations for different groups of countries?
• What are the most important types of shocks? Does this depend on degree of integration in global financial markets? (Will rely on work on the correlates of output drops.)
1970-2001
Advanced economies
Emerging markets
Developing countries
Frequency All Concluded Ongoing
Median duration All Concluded Ongoing
Median loss All Concluded Ongoing
Country specific external shocks Terms of trade shock Disaster
Sociopolitical War Political shock
Global shocks Global interest rate hike Oil shock
115
110
105
Event duration
100
95
90
Output
lo s s
85
80
Note: The gray area is the cumulative output loss and in this example the event duration is 4 years.
Table 2.TOabuletp1u.tODurtpouptsE:vFernetsq:uFerenqcuye,nDcyu, rDautiroantioannadndLLososss,, 1970-2001
(in percent)
1.9
6.2
6.4
1.5
2.8
2.1
0.1
1.6
1.9
(medians in years)
4
6
12
5
5
5
4
18
21
(in percent of pre-event GDP per capita)
-15
-41
-89
-13
-15
-38
-17
-192
-452
Sources: Maddison (2003) and staff calculations.
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00
GDP per capita level 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Figure 1. A "Concluded" Output Event
• What can policy makers do about fiscal risks? (Identify, Disclose, Manage). Statements of Fiscal Risks.
Begin by looking at Output Drops
• Definition of output drop • Frequencies • Catalog of shocks • Unconditional and conditional frequencies,
Notes: “All” oCuotpnucltuddreodpesviennctlsudareecfounllcyluodbesedr,voendgwointhginatnhde ssuamb-pelveepnetrsi.oCd oncluded drops are fully observewdhweritehains othnegosianmg epvleenptesrhioadd wnohteernedaesdobnygo2i0n0g1darnodpsthhead not ended by 2001 and the duration daunrdatlioosnsafnodr ltohsessfeodr rtohpesseaerveecnatslcaurelacteadlcualsastuedmainssgutmhaintgthe drops ended in 2002.
FiscalRisks
PaoloMauro FiscalAffairsDepartment InternatioFra Baidu bibliotekalMonetaryFund
Introduction
• Fiscal Risks: Deviations of fiscal outturns (deficits, debt/GDP) from expectations at the time of the budget or other fiscal forecasts.
that the events ended in 2002.
Table 3. Frequency of Output Event Conditional on Shock divided by Frequency of Output Event Conditional on No Shock
Financial and macroeconomic shocks Currency crisis Banking crisis Debt crisis Sudden stops
expected cost • Bivariate, then multivariate (probit)
approach • Causality (timing)
10000 9000
Argentina GDP per capita
Currency crisis and Terms of trade shock
• How large and frequent are the deviations for different groups of countries?
• What are the most important types of shocks? Does this depend on degree of integration in global financial markets? (Will rely on work on the correlates of output drops.)
1970-2001
Advanced economies
Emerging markets
Developing countries
Frequency All Concluded Ongoing
Median duration All Concluded Ongoing
Median loss All Concluded Ongoing
Country specific external shocks Terms of trade shock Disaster
Sociopolitical War Political shock
Global shocks Global interest rate hike Oil shock
115
110
105
Event duration
100
95
90
Output
lo s s
85
80
Note: The gray area is the cumulative output loss and in this example the event duration is 4 years.
Table 2.TOabuletp1u.tODurtpouptsE:vFernetsq:uFerenqcuye,nDcyu, rDautiroantioannadndLLososss,, 1970-2001
(in percent)
1.9
6.2
6.4
1.5
2.8
2.1
0.1
1.6
1.9
(medians in years)
4
6
12
5
5
5
4
18
21
(in percent of pre-event GDP per capita)
-15
-41
-89
-13
-15
-38
-17
-192
-452
Sources: Maddison (2003) and staff calculations.
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00
GDP per capita level 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Figure 1. A "Concluded" Output Event
• What can policy makers do about fiscal risks? (Identify, Disclose, Manage). Statements of Fiscal Risks.
Begin by looking at Output Drops
• Definition of output drop • Frequencies • Catalog of shocks • Unconditional and conditional frequencies,