曼昆《宏观经济学》(第五版)课堂讲义PPT(英文)Ch12
合集下载
相关主题
- 1、下载文档前请自行甄别文档内容的完整性，平台不提供额外的编辑、内容补充、找答案等附加服务。
- 2、"仅部分预览"的文档,不可在线预览部分如存在完整性等问题,可反馈申请退款(可完整预览的文档不适用该条件!)。
- 3、如文档侵犯您的权益，请联系客服反馈,我们会尽快为您处理(人工客服工作时间：9:00-18:30)。
Chapter Twelve 10
Why doesn't this logic always apply? There are two reasons why interest rates differ across countries: 1) Country Risk: when investors buy US government bonds, or make loans to US corporations, they are fairly confident that they will be repaid with interest. By contrast, in some less developed countries, it is plausible to fear that political upheaval may lead to a default on loan repayments. Borrowers in such countries often have to pay higher interest rates to compensate lenders for this risk. 2) Exchange Rate Expectations: suppose that people expect the French franc to fall in value relative to the US dollar. Then loans made in francs will be repaid in a less valuable currency than loans made in dollars. To compensate for the expected fall in the French currency, the interest rate in FranceTwelve be higher than the interest rate in the US. Chapter will 11
Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rate Conclusions
Fixed Exchange Rates
Fiscal Policy is Powerful. Monetary Policy is Powerless.
Hint: (Fixed and Fiscal sound alike).
A PowerPointTutorial to Accompany macroeconomics, 5th ed. N. Gregory Mankiw
CHAPTER TWELVE Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy
Mannig J. Simidian
Chapter Twelve 1
Income, Output, Y
Chapter Twelve
5
Income, Output, Y
MundellThe Mundell-Fleming Model Under Floating Exchange Rates
e +G, or –T +e, no Y LM*LM*' +M -e, +Y IS* Income, Output, Y
MundellThe Mundell-Fleming Model Under Fixed Exchange Rates
+G, or –T + Y +Μ no Y Μ
e
LM*LM*'
e
LM*
IS* IS*' Income, Output, Y
A fiscal expansion shifts IS* to the right. To maintain the fixed exchange rate, the Fed must increase the money supply, thus increasing LM* to the right. Unlike the case with flexible exchange rates, there is no crowding out effect on NX due to a higher exchange rate. Chapter Twelve
IS* Income, Output, Y
If the Fed tried to increase the money supply by buying bonds from the public, that would put downward pressure on the interest rate. Arbitragers respond by selling the domestic currency to the central bank, causing the money supply and the LM curve to contract to their initial positions. 7
MundellPolicy in the Mundell-Fleming Model: A Summary
The Mundell-Fleming model shows that the effect of almost any economic policy on a small open economy depends on whether the exchange rate is floating or fixed. The Mundell-Fleming model shows that the power of monetary and fiscal policy to influence aggregate demand depends on the exchange rate regime.
Floating Exchange Rates
Fiscal Policy is Powerless. Monetary Policy is Powerful.
Hint: (Think of floating money.)
The Mundell-Fleming model shows that fiscal policy does not influence aggregate income under floating exchange rates. A fiscal expansion causes the currency to appreciate, reducing net exports and offsetting the usual expansionary impact on aggregate demand. The Mundell –Fleming model shows that monetary policy does not influence aggregate income under fixed exchange rates. Any attempt to expand the money supply is futile, because the money supply must adjust to ensure that the exchange rate stays at its announced 8 level. Chapter Twelve
Y=E Planned Expenditure, E = C + I + G + NX
Income, Output, Y
NX(e)
Chapter Twelve
Net Exports, NX
IS* 4 Income, Output, Y
r
LM r = r*
The LM curve and the world interest rate together determine the level of income. e LM*
Introducing…
e
LM*
Equilibrium exchange rate Equilibrium Income
Chapter Twelve
IS* Income, Output, Y
2
Start with these two equations: IS*: Y = C(Y-T) + I(r*) + G + NX(e) LM*: M/P = L (r*,Y) Assumption 1: The domestic interest rate is equal to the world interest rate (r = r*). Assumption 2: The price level is exogenously fixed since the model is used to analyze the short run (P). This implies that the nominal exchange rate is proportional to the real exchange rate. Assumption 3: The money supply is also set exogenously by the central bank (M). Assumption 4: Our LM* curve will be vertical because the exchange rate does not enter Chapter Twelve 3 into our LM* equation.
ຫໍສະໝຸດ Baidu
An increase in the exchange (c) E rate, lowers net exports, which shifts planned expenditure downward and lowers income. The IS* curve summarizes these changes in the goods market equilibrium. e (a) r (b)
When the increase in the money supply puts downward pressure on the domestic interest rate, capital flows out as investors seek a higher return elsewhere. The capital outflow prevents the interest rate from falling. The outflow also causes the exchange rate to depreciate making domestic goods less expensive relative to foreign goods, and stimulates NX. Hence, monetary 6 policy influences the e rather than r.
e
LM*
IS* IS*' Income, Output, Y
When income rises in a small open economy, due to the fiscal expansion, the interest rate tries to rise but capital inflows from abroad put downward pressure on the interest rate.This inflow causes an increase in the demand for the currency pushing up its value and thus making domestic goods more expensive to foreigners (causing a –NX). The –NX offsets Chapter Twelve the expansionary fiscal policy and the effect on Y.
Chapter Twelve
9
What if the domestic interest rate were above the world interest rate?
The higher return will attract funds from the rest of the world, driving the US interest rate back down. And, if the interest rate were below the world interest rate, domestic residents would lend abroad to earn a higher return, driving the domestic interest rate back up. In the end, the domestic interest rate would equal the world interest rate.
Why doesn't this logic always apply? There are two reasons why interest rates differ across countries: 1) Country Risk: when investors buy US government bonds, or make loans to US corporations, they are fairly confident that they will be repaid with interest. By contrast, in some less developed countries, it is plausible to fear that political upheaval may lead to a default on loan repayments. Borrowers in such countries often have to pay higher interest rates to compensate lenders for this risk. 2) Exchange Rate Expectations: suppose that people expect the French franc to fall in value relative to the US dollar. Then loans made in francs will be repaid in a less valuable currency than loans made in dollars. To compensate for the expected fall in the French currency, the interest rate in FranceTwelve be higher than the interest rate in the US. Chapter will 11
Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rate Conclusions
Fixed Exchange Rates
Fiscal Policy is Powerful. Monetary Policy is Powerless.
Hint: (Fixed and Fiscal sound alike).
A PowerPointTutorial to Accompany macroeconomics, 5th ed. N. Gregory Mankiw
CHAPTER TWELVE Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy
Mannig J. Simidian
Chapter Twelve 1
Income, Output, Y
Chapter Twelve
5
Income, Output, Y
MundellThe Mundell-Fleming Model Under Floating Exchange Rates
e +G, or –T +e, no Y LM*LM*' +M -e, +Y IS* Income, Output, Y
MundellThe Mundell-Fleming Model Under Fixed Exchange Rates
+G, or –T + Y +Μ no Y Μ
e
LM*LM*'
e
LM*
IS* IS*' Income, Output, Y
A fiscal expansion shifts IS* to the right. To maintain the fixed exchange rate, the Fed must increase the money supply, thus increasing LM* to the right. Unlike the case with flexible exchange rates, there is no crowding out effect on NX due to a higher exchange rate. Chapter Twelve
IS* Income, Output, Y
If the Fed tried to increase the money supply by buying bonds from the public, that would put downward pressure on the interest rate. Arbitragers respond by selling the domestic currency to the central bank, causing the money supply and the LM curve to contract to their initial positions. 7
MundellPolicy in the Mundell-Fleming Model: A Summary
The Mundell-Fleming model shows that the effect of almost any economic policy on a small open economy depends on whether the exchange rate is floating or fixed. The Mundell-Fleming model shows that the power of monetary and fiscal policy to influence aggregate demand depends on the exchange rate regime.
Floating Exchange Rates
Fiscal Policy is Powerless. Monetary Policy is Powerful.
Hint: (Think of floating money.)
The Mundell-Fleming model shows that fiscal policy does not influence aggregate income under floating exchange rates. A fiscal expansion causes the currency to appreciate, reducing net exports and offsetting the usual expansionary impact on aggregate demand. The Mundell –Fleming model shows that monetary policy does not influence aggregate income under fixed exchange rates. Any attempt to expand the money supply is futile, because the money supply must adjust to ensure that the exchange rate stays at its announced 8 level. Chapter Twelve
Y=E Planned Expenditure, E = C + I + G + NX
Income, Output, Y
NX(e)
Chapter Twelve
Net Exports, NX
IS* 4 Income, Output, Y
r
LM r = r*
The LM curve and the world interest rate together determine the level of income. e LM*
Introducing…
e
LM*
Equilibrium exchange rate Equilibrium Income
Chapter Twelve
IS* Income, Output, Y
2
Start with these two equations: IS*: Y = C(Y-T) + I(r*) + G + NX(e) LM*: M/P = L (r*,Y) Assumption 1: The domestic interest rate is equal to the world interest rate (r = r*). Assumption 2: The price level is exogenously fixed since the model is used to analyze the short run (P). This implies that the nominal exchange rate is proportional to the real exchange rate. Assumption 3: The money supply is also set exogenously by the central bank (M). Assumption 4: Our LM* curve will be vertical because the exchange rate does not enter Chapter Twelve 3 into our LM* equation.
ຫໍສະໝຸດ Baidu
An increase in the exchange (c) E rate, lowers net exports, which shifts planned expenditure downward and lowers income. The IS* curve summarizes these changes in the goods market equilibrium. e (a) r (b)
When the increase in the money supply puts downward pressure on the domestic interest rate, capital flows out as investors seek a higher return elsewhere. The capital outflow prevents the interest rate from falling. The outflow also causes the exchange rate to depreciate making domestic goods less expensive relative to foreign goods, and stimulates NX. Hence, monetary 6 policy influences the e rather than r.
e
LM*
IS* IS*' Income, Output, Y
When income rises in a small open economy, due to the fiscal expansion, the interest rate tries to rise but capital inflows from abroad put downward pressure on the interest rate.This inflow causes an increase in the demand for the currency pushing up its value and thus making domestic goods more expensive to foreigners (causing a –NX). The –NX offsets Chapter Twelve the expansionary fiscal policy and the effect on Y.
Chapter Twelve
9
What if the domestic interest rate were above the world interest rate?
The higher return will attract funds from the rest of the world, driving the US interest rate back down. And, if the interest rate were below the world interest rate, domestic residents would lend abroad to earn a higher return, driving the domestic interest rate back up. In the end, the domestic interest rate would equal the world interest rate.