2015年中国股灾的成因分析和对策思考

The Cause Analysis and Countermeasures of China's stock market crash in 2015
Abstract
In the summer of 2015 ， Abnormal fluctuations in China's capital market has undergone. The Shanghai Composite Index in just two months fell from 5178.19 points to 2850.71 points. A-share market hit bottom during the multiple occurrences of a thousand plight, of which more than 60% of small-cap stocks fell more than half. China's capital market momentary panic, then in the end what caused the A-shares this "roller coaster" like market? The community talked a lot. So the main research object of this paper is the 2015 stock market crash in China , using academic research methods and data analysis reasoning expand this topic, hoping to restore the essential reason for the majority of investors in the current round of stock market crash occurred, and ultimately promote the concept of investors transformation and upgrading. The article is divided into four sections, on the logical structure as the core cause analysis, theoretical analysis and research linked together to achieve the purpose of the study. The first part describes the process of the formation of the stock market crash, that is, before the stock market crash occurred on the specific situation of China's capital market. Reasons for which we stand on the position of the Government and investors, new investors and national accounts data from both interest rates starting to explore, simulate crash occurred before China's capital market, expanding the "bubble" for later pave the way.
东 华 大 学
毕 业 论 文
论 文 题 目 学 系 专 班 学 姓 院 别 业 级 号 名
2015 年中国股灾的成因分析和对策思考
旭日工商管理学院 金融系 金融学 金融 1205 120730ห้องสมุดไป่ตู้23 范克俊 李勇
指导老师
二零一六年三月至六月
2015 年中国股灾的成因分析和对策思考
2015 年中国股灾的成因分析和对策思考
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2015 年中国股灾的成因分析和对策思考
The second part is the core of this article, this article will focus on technical analysis and fundamental analysis are two different methods for analysis of causes of the current round of stock market crash, where the former refers to Eliot's famous band theory and stock index futures arbitrage deadline analyze reasoning; the latter will be departing from the fundamentals of the global economy, specifically to our country's economic fundamentals, the current round of the crash appeared to make a reasonable explanation. The third part is a series of rescue measures after the stock market crash of financial regulators appear presented an overview and evaluation. During which we will select one policy more representative to discuss, in its lessons learned on the basis of the next step for the reform of China's capital market find a way out and learn. Finally, this paper is a reflection of the current round of stock market crash. And ideas of the first part, we still stand both investors and regulators to rethink. The former investment philosophy much needed change, the latter's ruling needs to be improved, which is a gradual process, the only constant reform, China's capital market, in order to continued stability and prosperity.
Keywords: stock market crash; the flood of liquidity; band theory; leveraged
funds; rational investment
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2015 年中国股灾的成因分析和对策思考
目
录
第 1 章 引言.........................................................................................................................................8 第 2 章 2015 中国股灾概述........................................................................................................ 10 2.1 股灾概述....................................................................................................... 10 2.1.1 股灾的特点........................................................................................ 10 2.1.2 引发股灾的一般原因........................................................................ 10 2.1.3 中国历史上发生的两次股灾............................................................ 10 2.1.4 国内外研究概况................................................................................ 11 2.2 2015 年中国股灾记录................................................................................ 12 第 3 章 2015 年中国股灾形成的原因分析............................................................................13 3.1 技术层面：艾略特波段理论、期现套利理论............................................................ 13 3.2 基本面分析：虚实经济发展不协调........................................................... 19 3.2.1 投资者角度：股市上涨与新开户数的正向反馈................................... 20 3.2.2 政府角度：持续宽松货币政策下的“筹码”支持............................... 22 3.2.2.1 模型的建立.................................................................................... 23 3.2.2.2 数据的平稳性检验........................................................................ 23 3.2.2.3 格兰杰检验.................................................................................... 24 4.2.2.4 实证分析结论................................................................................ 25
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2015 年中国股灾的成因分析和对策思考
本文的最后是对本轮股灾的反思。和第一部分的思路一样，我们还是站在投 资者和监管机构两个方面进行反思。 这是一个循序渐进的过程， 只有不断的改革， 中国的资本市场才能持续的稳定与繁荣。
关键词：股灾；流动性泛滥；波段理论；杠杆资金；理性投资
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2015 年中国股灾的成因分析和对策思考
摘 要
2015 年夏季中国的资本市场发生了异常波动，上证指数在短短的两个月时 间内从 5178.19 点跌落至 2850.71，期间 A 股市场上多次出现千股跌停的惨况， 其中超过 60%的中小盘股票被无情“腰斩”，中国资本市场上一时人心惶惶，草 木皆兵，那么到底是什么原因导致 A 股出现这“过山车”似的行情？社会各界议 论纷纷。为此本文以 2015 年中国股灾为主要的研究对象，运用学术理论和数据 分析推理的研究方式展开这一论题， 希望能为广大投资者还原本轮股灾出现的本 质原因，最终促进投资者投资观念的转变与升级。 本文首先对股灾的概念和本轮股灾的形成过程做了一个简单的介绍， 第二部 分是本文的核心部分， 本文将以证券投资分析中技术分析和基本面分析两种不同 的方法对本轮股灾的成因做一个形象的分析， 其中前者引用了著名的艾略特波段 理论和股指期货中期现套利理论进行分析推理； 后者将会从全球经济的基本面出 发，具体到我国经济基本面。我们站在投资者和政府两个不同的立场上，从投资 者新开户数和政府利率两方面数据出发进行探究， 模拟暴跌出现之前我国资本市 场上不断膨胀的“泡沫”，为之后的成因分析做好铺垫。为本轮暴跌的出现做出 一个合理的解释。 第三部分是对股灾出现之后我国金融监管机构提出的一系列救市措施的概 述和评价。 期间我们将选取其中比较具有代表性的政策进行研讨，在对其经验总 结的基础上为我国下一步资本市场的改革寻找出路和借鉴。