【精品报告】教育行业：从新东方,好未来发展史,看K12课外辅导培训扩张路径

2016 4 14 21 16
2017 4 14 22 25
2018 4 15 25 31
2019 4 15 26 37
Learning center
07-12
10
44.30% 13-16
17-
07-13
08
75.51% 14-16
07-13
08
136.84% 14-16
07-13 63.16%
14-16
1.
K12
2019 2 28 4616
56
676
499
21387
2011 2011
2012
4
2
2019 15
2019
2016
1
2019
12
5
25
2011-2019
2011 4 2 0 0
2012 4 9 1 0
2013 4 10 1 0
2014 4 10 2 0
2015 4 12 3 0
2016 4 13 7 1
-8.8% -26.9%
% 2020 3 2 2020 3 13
15 10.3
10
5
2.7 0.0
0
-5 -10
-3.3 -3.4 -4.5 -4.6
-15
-9.2 -10.4 -11.3 -13.9
-20
-17.7
-25
-21.2
-30
-25.6 -26.9 -27.6
-35
-33.2
-40
Wind
-4.6 -5.4 -6.5 -6.7 -7.0 -8.1 -8.3 -8.8 -9.1 -9.4 -10.0-10.1-10.1-10.8-11.7-12.2-13.5-14.5
-20
-17.5
-20.1
-25
Wind
13
6.
2
14
7874.88 +10.3% -33.2%
-8.1%
23185.62 +2.7% -27.6%
yoy %
yoy %
2011-2019
8
17
29.21%,
yoy %
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 (100)
1.
K12
12
11-19 12-16 17
95.92% 13-16 19
12 17 17-19
440% 160% 17-19
2011-2019
250
yoy %
200
2019E 2020E
0.26 0.31
-
0.22
-
0.33
-
0.00
-
0.22
0.29 0.40
-
0.58
2017 347 31 75 40 128 1893 17
PE X
2018 2019E 2020E
202 42 35
37
-
30
-
-
53
-
-
-
-
-
28
121 77 56
28
-
14
1.53
-
3.07
-30
-21.8-22.0-23.7
-28.9
-40
Wind
12
5.
2
22
24032.91
-8.0%
+4.4%
-20.1%
9650.15 +2.7%
-17.5%
-6.3% -14.5%
% 2020 3 2 2020 3 13
10
5
4.4 2.7
0.0 0.0 0
-5
-1.2 -1.7
-10 -15
17-19
(School)
wk.baidu.com
2019
2019
6
07
07-11
83.33% 12-15
2007-2019
07-19
36
09
38.46%
11
1 3 16-19
4
1.
2007-2019
K12
2007-2019
1.
2007-2019
2007-2019
K12
yoy %
6
yoy % 100 80 60 40 20 0 (20) (40)
14
8. A
A A
K12 K12
2020 3 13
64 59 153 49 30 1390 28
551
10.79 6.46 17.59 17.02 5.95 22.54 8.16
83.99
2017 0.03 0.21 0.23 0.43 0.05 0.01 0.47
1.05
EPS 2018 0.05 0.17 -1.60 -0.93 -0.20 0.19 0.29
80
55
-
27
Wind
EPS
EPS
Wind
15
9.
K12 K12+
EPS Wind 1 12 31
Wind
2020 3 13
2017
8
6.99
0.24
311
52.59
1.03
193
122.08
1.87
2020 3 13
EPS 2018 0.30 1.60 1.89
2019E -
0.98 2.96
2020E -
2018 2.9pct
10
2019
2.
A K12
2019
+
2019
2019 27%
a
2019 1 4
b
2019 2 13
100
2019
100
2018-2022
11
4. A
5
22
2887.43
0.2%
Wind K12
605.86
-4.9%
+27.8%
-28.9%
10831.13
+7.3% -23.7%
150
100
50
0
yoy %
yoy %
2011-2019
9
17
28.83%,17-18
yoy %
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 (100)
1.
VS 2019
2007 2017
K12
2019 2019
37
38
111
12
15
15
17%-26%
39.5%
4.1pct
K12 30.9%
-1.4%
+2.1% -22.0%
A
% 2020 3 2 2020 3 13
40 30 27.8
20
10
7.3
2.1 1.8 1.0
0
-10 -20
-0.6 -2.6 -3.3 -4.6 -5.1 -5.2 -5.9 -6.3 -7.3 -7.7-10.3-11.1-11.1-11.2-12.5-12.7-14.2-14.8
19 17-19 17-19
17
2007-2019
2007 2008
4
4
12 13
11 13
6
8
2009 4 14 16 6
2010 4 14 16 6
2011 4 14 18 11
2012 4 14 18 13
2013 4 14 18 14
2014 4 14 18 14
2015 4 14 18 14
2017 4 13 12 1
2018 4 14 21 3
2019 4 15 25 12
2011-2019
7
1.
K12
12
11-19 12-15 17
2011-2019
350
yoy %
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
75.21% 13-16
12 16 17-19
418.18% 133.33% 16-19
K12
1. 2.
3. A
4. 5.
6. A
7. 8.
5
22
2
22
2
14
2
1.
K12 15
K12
K12 K12
·
2019 K12
2019
2019 5 31 2019
83
95
1159
15
33900
2007 2007
2007 2007
4
12
2018 15
2019
6
2011
3
4
26
2019
37
1.
K12