2011年东日本大地震和海啸的调查和研究
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90% 80%
5.7
7.1
9.1
140
120 100
128
94 64.1
ห้องสมุดไป่ตู้70%
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
87
68.9
67.3
69.5
80 67.9 63.7 59.2 58.1 60 53.9 51.5 50.9 40
20
30.2 1960 24.0 1970 23.5 1980 18.2 1990 14.6 2000 13.2 2010 11.7 2020 10.3 2030 10.0 2040 9.7 2050 9.1 2060 0
Ishinomaki, August 2011. Debris mountain. (Photo: Peter Matanle).
Ishinomaki, August 2011. (Photo: Peter Matanle). がんばろう！石巻 (Tough it out! Ishinomaki). 復興するぞ！(We will rebuild!)
An Assessment One Year On
• Introduction
• Japan and Tōhoku Prior to 11 March 2011
• What Happened on 11 March 2011? • After the Disaster
• Can Japan Recover?
Japan and Tōhoku Prior to 11 March 2012
Ageing, Low-fertility and Depopulation
0-14 15-64 12.0 17.3 65+ 23.1 29.1 Total Population 31.6 36.1 38.8 39.9
100%
Rikuzentakata, August 2011. Municipal gymnasium and emergency shelter. (Photo: Peter Matanle).
Rikuzentakata, August 2011. Junior High School (ages 12-15). (Photo: Peter Matanle).
Iwate Prefecture
Miyagi Prefecture Sendai City Fukushima Prefecture
Population change in Japan by prefecture and prefectural capital, 1990–2010. Source: Statistics Bureau (2011).
Rikuzentakata, August 2011. Temporary housing for tsunami refugees. (Photo: Peter Matanle).
Ishinomaki, August 2011. Senior High School (Ages 15-18). (Photo: Peter Matanle).
Actual (1960-2010) and Projected (2020+) Population of Japan by Age Group (left hand scale, %), and Total Population (right hand scale, millions). Source: Statistics Bureau, 2011;
Rikuzentakata, August 2011. Debris clearance is progressing. But the town has been destroyed. (Photo: Peter Matanle). Tsunami footage at Rikuzentakata.
Minamisanriku town, Miyagi Prefecture after the tsunami (27 March 2011). Source: Sankei Shimbunsha (2011: 31); see also SankeiPhoto (2011). Reproduced by kind permission of Sankei Books.
Casualties and Damage (11 April 2012 – National Police Agency Website) Dead: 15,856 Missing: 3,070 Injured: 6,027 129,404 buildings totally destroyed, 255,737 buildings partially destroyed. 26.7 million tons of debris (Asahi Shimbunsha, 2011). Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Cooling systems flooded and failed. Hydrogen explosions at Units 1, 3, and 4. Units 1, 2, and 3 experienced full meltdown.
Minamisanriku town, Miyagi Prefecture before the tsunami (2001). Source: Sankei Shimbunsha (2011: 31); see also SankeiPhoto (2011). Reproduced by kind permission of Sankei Books.
What happened on 11 March 2011? Rikuzentakata, Iwate Prefecture and Ishinomaki, Miyagi Prefecture
Rikuzentakata City (1 March 2012) Population (2005/10): 24,709 and 23,302 (-5.7%) (National Census data). Confirmed dead: 1,691 (41 missing) (Post-disaster population est.= 21,570) Estimated pop. 2015: 20,242 (Est. Pop. Change 2005-15 = -18.1%)* Buildings destroyed: 3,368 (3,159 [totally], 97 [mostly], 85 [half-destroyed], 27 [partially]) Ishinomaki City (11 March 2012) Population (2005/10): 167,324 and 160,826 (-3.9%) Confirmed dead: 3,280 (539 missing) (Post-disaster population est.= 157,007) Estimated pop. 2015: 150,735 (Est. Pop. Change 2005-15 = -6.0%)* Okawa Elementary School: 74/108 children died; 10/14 teachers.
What happened on 11 March 2011? A Compound Event
Earthquake Time: Location:
Distance: Aftershocks: Tsunami Time: Height: Max. Run-up: 21) . Area Flooded: 14:46 a M9.0 reverse megathrust earthquake. NW Pacific Ocean (38.297°N, 142.372°E). Subduction zone between Pacific-N. American Plates. 129 km (80 miles) E of Sendai. 373 km (231 miles) NE of Tokyo. 702 of M5.0 or greater. Approx. 15:00-15:45 in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures. 5-20metres in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima. 38.9m (127.6ft). Miyako, Iwate Prefecture (Shogakukan Creative et al, 2011: 507km2.
The Unosumai district of Kamaishi City, Iwate Prefecture before the tsunami (2007). Source: Sankei Shimbunsha (2011, p. 31); see also SankeiPhoto (2011). Reproduced by kind permission of Sankei Books.
*2015 population estimates do not include projections for out-migration.
Rikuzentakata, August 2011: Apartment blocks facing the ocean. (Photo: Peter Matanle).
• Conclusion: Transformation or Status Quo?
Japan and Tōhoku Prior to 11 March 2012
Ageing, Low-fertility and Depopulation 2000 -2010 - Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures shrank by 3.5 percent, from 5.908 to 5.708 million people. Prior to 11 March 2011, the Japanese government had forecast shrinkage of a further 791,000 to 4.917 million (13.9%) by 2030; making a total decline of 16.8%. A total fall of 20 per cent (1.181 million) (2010-30) now seems plausible. • Japan’s Net Reproduction Rate fell below 1.0 for the first time around 1955/60. • The Total Fertility Rate fell below 2.1 in 1974. • Japan began to shrink in around 2005/10. United Nations Population Division (2010) World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, UNPD Website.
Kamaishi City Minamisanriku Town Rikuzentakata City Ishinomaki City
Projected population of Japan by prefecture and prefectural capital. 2010-30. Source: NIPSSR (2003).
2011年东日本大地震 海啸 与核 泄漏灾害分析
2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Meltdown Disaster
The Great East Japan Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Meltdown
5.7
7.1
9.1
140
120 100
128
94 64.1
ห้องสมุดไป่ตู้70%
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
87
68.9
67.3
69.5
80 67.9 63.7 59.2 58.1 60 53.9 51.5 50.9 40
20
30.2 1960 24.0 1970 23.5 1980 18.2 1990 14.6 2000 13.2 2010 11.7 2020 10.3 2030 10.0 2040 9.7 2050 9.1 2060 0
Ishinomaki, August 2011. Debris mountain. (Photo: Peter Matanle).
Ishinomaki, August 2011. (Photo: Peter Matanle). がんばろう！石巻 (Tough it out! Ishinomaki). 復興するぞ！(We will rebuild!)
An Assessment One Year On
• Introduction
• Japan and Tōhoku Prior to 11 March 2011
• What Happened on 11 March 2011? • After the Disaster
• Can Japan Recover?
Japan and Tōhoku Prior to 11 March 2012
Ageing, Low-fertility and Depopulation
0-14 15-64 12.0 17.3 65+ 23.1 29.1 Total Population 31.6 36.1 38.8 39.9
100%
Rikuzentakata, August 2011. Municipal gymnasium and emergency shelter. (Photo: Peter Matanle).
Rikuzentakata, August 2011. Junior High School (ages 12-15). (Photo: Peter Matanle).
Iwate Prefecture
Miyagi Prefecture Sendai City Fukushima Prefecture
Population change in Japan by prefecture and prefectural capital, 1990–2010. Source: Statistics Bureau (2011).
Rikuzentakata, August 2011. Temporary housing for tsunami refugees. (Photo: Peter Matanle).
Ishinomaki, August 2011. Senior High School (Ages 15-18). (Photo: Peter Matanle).
Actual (1960-2010) and Projected (2020+) Population of Japan by Age Group (left hand scale, %), and Total Population (right hand scale, millions). Source: Statistics Bureau, 2011;
Rikuzentakata, August 2011. Debris clearance is progressing. But the town has been destroyed. (Photo: Peter Matanle). Tsunami footage at Rikuzentakata.
Minamisanriku town, Miyagi Prefecture after the tsunami (27 March 2011). Source: Sankei Shimbunsha (2011: 31); see also SankeiPhoto (2011). Reproduced by kind permission of Sankei Books.
Casualties and Damage (11 April 2012 – National Police Agency Website) Dead: 15,856 Missing: 3,070 Injured: 6,027 129,404 buildings totally destroyed, 255,737 buildings partially destroyed. 26.7 million tons of debris (Asahi Shimbunsha, 2011). Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Cooling systems flooded and failed. Hydrogen explosions at Units 1, 3, and 4. Units 1, 2, and 3 experienced full meltdown.
Minamisanriku town, Miyagi Prefecture before the tsunami (2001). Source: Sankei Shimbunsha (2011: 31); see also SankeiPhoto (2011). Reproduced by kind permission of Sankei Books.
What happened on 11 March 2011? Rikuzentakata, Iwate Prefecture and Ishinomaki, Miyagi Prefecture
Rikuzentakata City (1 March 2012) Population (2005/10): 24,709 and 23,302 (-5.7%) (National Census data). Confirmed dead: 1,691 (41 missing) (Post-disaster population est.= 21,570) Estimated pop. 2015: 20,242 (Est. Pop. Change 2005-15 = -18.1%)* Buildings destroyed: 3,368 (3,159 [totally], 97 [mostly], 85 [half-destroyed], 27 [partially]) Ishinomaki City (11 March 2012) Population (2005/10): 167,324 and 160,826 (-3.9%) Confirmed dead: 3,280 (539 missing) (Post-disaster population est.= 157,007) Estimated pop. 2015: 150,735 (Est. Pop. Change 2005-15 = -6.0%)* Okawa Elementary School: 74/108 children died; 10/14 teachers.
What happened on 11 March 2011? A Compound Event
Earthquake Time: Location:
Distance: Aftershocks: Tsunami Time: Height: Max. Run-up: 21) . Area Flooded: 14:46 a M9.0 reverse megathrust earthquake. NW Pacific Ocean (38.297°N, 142.372°E). Subduction zone between Pacific-N. American Plates. 129 km (80 miles) E of Sendai. 373 km (231 miles) NE of Tokyo. 702 of M5.0 or greater. Approx. 15:00-15:45 in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures. 5-20metres in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima. 38.9m (127.6ft). Miyako, Iwate Prefecture (Shogakukan Creative et al, 2011: 507km2.
The Unosumai district of Kamaishi City, Iwate Prefecture before the tsunami (2007). Source: Sankei Shimbunsha (2011, p. 31); see also SankeiPhoto (2011). Reproduced by kind permission of Sankei Books.
*2015 population estimates do not include projections for out-migration.
Rikuzentakata, August 2011: Apartment blocks facing the ocean. (Photo: Peter Matanle).
• Conclusion: Transformation or Status Quo?
Japan and Tōhoku Prior to 11 March 2012
Ageing, Low-fertility and Depopulation 2000 -2010 - Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures shrank by 3.5 percent, from 5.908 to 5.708 million people. Prior to 11 March 2011, the Japanese government had forecast shrinkage of a further 791,000 to 4.917 million (13.9%) by 2030; making a total decline of 16.8%. A total fall of 20 per cent (1.181 million) (2010-30) now seems plausible. • Japan’s Net Reproduction Rate fell below 1.0 for the first time around 1955/60. • The Total Fertility Rate fell below 2.1 in 1974. • Japan began to shrink in around 2005/10. United Nations Population Division (2010) World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, UNPD Website.
Kamaishi City Minamisanriku Town Rikuzentakata City Ishinomaki City
Projected population of Japan by prefecture and prefectural capital. 2010-30. Source: NIPSSR (2003).
2011年东日本大地震 海啸 与核 泄漏灾害分析
2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Meltdown Disaster
The Great East Japan Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Meltdown