泸州老窖年报分析
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Ⳍ݇ⷨお
382.27 ⱒϛܗ
1.lj⋌Ꮂ㗕な˄000568˅䎳䏾ਞ-䖭䞠ⱘ
咢ᯢ䴭ᙘᙘNJ ............................ 2010-12-18
2.lj⋌Ꮂ㗕な˄000568˅-㧹䫔ԧ㋏ᓣ
⏅࣪ˈᔎ࣪䭓乘ᳳNJ .......... 2010-10-25
3.lj⋌Ꮂ㗕な˄000568˅䇗ⷨਞüᮄક
2011 ᑈ 3 ᳜ 28 ᮹ 䆕ࠌⷨおਞg݀ৌⷨおg亳ક佂᭭㸠Ϯ
⋌Ꮂ㗕な˄000568˅2010 ᑈᑈ⚍䆘
ᑈᓔྟ䎼䍞ᓣথሩ
фܹ˄㓈ᣕ
ᔧࠡӋ˖44.51 ܗ ⳂᷛӋ˖72.60 ܗ
ᡩ䌘㽕⚍
ᑈϮ㒽ヺড়៥Ӏ乘ᳳDŽ2010 ᑈˈ݀ৌᅲ⦄㧹Ϯᬊܹ 53.71 ғˈܗৠ↨䭓 22.89%˗ᅲ⦄ᔦሲѢ↡݀ৌ᠔᳝㗙߽ޔ⍺ 22.05 ғˈܗৠ↨䭓 31.79%˗↣ 㙵ᬊⲞ 1.58 ˈܗ催ѢϮ㒽ᖿ 0.01 ܗDŽߚ䜡ᮍḜ˖↣ 10 㙵⌒ 10 ˅˄ܗDŽ
ϞᏖ㚆߽⍺䭓⚍ˈ㧹䫔䇗ᭈᠧ䗴䭓ᳳ
ゲѝNJ .................................... 2010-10-15
䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
⋌Ꮂ㗕な˄000568˅ᑈ⚍䆘-2011 ᑈᓔྟ䎼䍞ᓣথሩ
Ⳃᔩ
2010 ᑈϮ㒽ヺড়乘ᳳˈ催ѢϮ㒽ᖿ 0.01 ˈܗ10 ⌒ 10 ܗ...................................................................... 1 ঠક⠠䖤ࡼᬊܹ㾘ࡴ䗳ᠽᓴ .......................................................................................................................... 4
䫔ଂԧ㋏ᬍ䴽㧹䫔ᓣ߯ᮄ▔থ䫔ଂ⌏DŽ݀ৌ乚ᇐሖЏㅵ䫔ଂǃᬍ䴽䫔 ଂ偼ᑆ▔ࢅᴎࠊǃ䫔ଂ⏴䘧ⱘ᠕ᑇ࣪ҹঞ䆩⚍ϝ㑻䫔ଂԧ㋏ˈᑊࡴᔎⳈϧ पᑫᓎ䆒ˈ乘䅵ᇚᇍ݀ৌ䫔ଂ䌍⫼ⱘࠊ䫔ଂᬜᵰⱘԧ⦄᳝ᯢᰒᐂࡽDŽ
亢䰽ᦤ冫˖ᅣ㾖㒣⌢⊶ࡼDŽ
ⳂᷛӋ ˈܗ㓈ᣕĀфܹā䆘㑻DŽ៥Ӏ乘⌟݀ৌ ᑈ ᑈᭈԧ (36 Ў ؛˄ܗᅮࠌଚϮࡵ↣ᑈ ( ܗ36˅ˈⳂᷛӋ ˈܗ ᇍᑨ ᑈⱑ䜦ϮࡵϮ㒽 ס3(ˈ㓈ᣕĀфܹā䆘㑻DŽ
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳
Џ㽕᭄
Ёᷛ 300 ᣛ᭄
2814.42 ⚍
ᘏ㙵ᴀ/⌕䗮㙵ᴀ 1394.24 /715.35 ⱒϛ㙵
䖥 12 ᳔᳜催/᳔Ԣ
47.94 ܗ/27.58 ܗ
䖥 1 ᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ
-7.17%
䖥 6 ᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ
6.27%
Ҟᑈҹᴹ㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ
-11.67%
12 Ͼ᳜᮹ഛ៤Ѹ乱
ᦦⳂᔩ
1˖⋌Ꮂ㗕なᬊܹϢ߽⍺ঞৠ↨ᐙग़ᑈ㒳䅵.................................................................................................... 2 2˖⋌Ꮂ㗕なᬊܹϢ߽⍺ঞৠ↨ᐙߚᄷᑺ㒳䅵................................................................................................ 2 3˖⋌Ꮂ㗕な↯߽⥛ঞ䌍⫼⥛ग़ᑈ㒳䅵................................................................................................................ 3 4˖⋌Ꮂ㗕な↯߽⥛ঞ䌍⫼⥛ߚᄷᑺ㒳䅵............................................................................................................ 3 5˖⋌Ꮂ㗕な乘ᬊ䋺ℒ䗤ᄷ᭄ᇍ↨ߚᵤ............................................................................................................ 3 6˖⋌Ꮂ㗕な 2013 ᑈ䫔ଂⳂᷛߚ㾷.................................................................................................................. 4 7˖⋌Ꮂ㗕なな 1573 ᱂䗮㺙.............................................................................................................................. 5 8˖⋌Ꮂ㗕なな 1573 ㋏߫ѻકüüЁકԡ.................................................................................................. 5 9˖な 1573 ᦤӋग़ ......................................................................................................................................... 5 10˖2009 ᑈҹᴹ 52eな 1573 ӋḐ䍄.......................................................................................................... 6 11˖⋌Ꮂ㗕な⡍᳆㋏߫üüᑈӑ⡍᳆.................................................................................................................. 8 12˖⋌Ꮂ㗕なな啘䜦——ⱒᑈ⋌Ꮂ㗕な.............................................................................................................. 8 13˖⋌Ꮂ㗕な䫔ଂ䌍⫼⥛ব࣪.............................................................................................................................. 9
2011E 7385 37.50% 2922 32.50% 2.10 70.50% 40.00% 21.00
2012E 9231 25.00% 3652 25.00% 2.62 70.80% 40.10% 16.80
⊼˖㙵ӋЎ 2010 ᑈ 10 ᳜ 24 ᮹ᬊⲬ
2013E 11539 25.00%ຫໍສະໝຸດ Baidu4566 25.00% 3.27 71.00% 40.20% 13.44
2010 ᑈ㒣㧹ᚙؐމᕫ݇⊼ⱘ᳝ϝ⚍˖1˅ᬊܹ䭓Џ㽕ᴹ㞾Ѣ催ッ䜦ˈ2011 ᑈ䫔ଂⳂᷛ 37.51%DŽ催ḷ䜦㧹Ϯᬊܹ 35.19 ғˈܗ䭓 33.33%ˈЁԢḷ 䜦ᅲ⦄ᬊܹ 16.70 ғˈ䭓 6.10%DŽ݀ৌ㾘ߦ 2011 ᑈᅲ⦄ᬊܹ 86.41 ғ˄ᠷ 䰸ؐৢᡬড় 73.85 ғˈ䕗 2010 ᑈᅲ䰙ᬊܹ 37.51%˅ˈᑊৠᯊ㾘ߦ 2013 ᑈᅲ⦄ 130 ғᬊܹ˗2˅↯߽⥛Ϟछˈ䫔ଂ䌍⫼⥛ϟ䰡ˈ⍜䌍ᕅડ䕗 ᇣDŽ㓐ড়↯߽⥛ 69.41%ˈৠ↨Ϟछ 2.76 Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈЏ㽕⬅Ѣ催ḷ䜦ᦤӋ ᬊܹऴ↨ࡴ᠔㟈˗䫔ଂ䌍⫼⥛ 6.02%ˈৠ↨ϟ䰡 5.41 Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈᶦ⊝݀ ৌᡓᢙ䚼ߚ䫔ଂ䌍⫼˗ㅵ⧚䌍⫼Ёࡴ㙵ᴗ䌍䅵ᦤ 1.09 ғˈᕅડ EPS0.08 ˈܗ2011 ᑈҡ䳔䅵ᦤ 1.19 ғˈᕅડ EPS0.09 ˗ܗ㧹Ϯ䞥ঞ䰘ࡴऴᬊܹ↨ 8.15%ˈ䕗 2009 ᑈछ 0.74%˗3˅ढ㽓䆕ࠌᬊⲞ〇ᅮˈ乘ᬊ䋺ℒঞᄬ䋻߯ग़ ᮄ催DŽ2010 ᑈढ㽓䆕ࠌᴗⲞᡩ䌘ᬊⲞ 3.51 ғˈᡬড় EPS0.25 ˈܗ䕗 2009 ᑈᡩ䌘ᬊⲞޣᇥ 0.06 ғ˗乘ᬊ䋺ℒ 10.57 ғˈܗ䕗Ϟᑈࡴ 3.98 ғ˗ᄬ 䋻 14.86 ғˈܗ䕗Ϟᑈࡴ 2.90 ғDŽѠ㗙᭄ഛ߯݀ৌϞᏖҹᴹᮄ催DŽ
㧹Ϯᬊܹ˄ⱒϛ˅ 䭓⥛ YoY% ߽ޔ⍺˄ⱒϛ˅ 䭓⥛ YoY% ↣㙵ᬊⲞ˄˅ܗ ↯߽⥛% ޔ䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛% P/E
2009 4370 15.06% 1673 32.18% 1.20 66.65% 39.39% 36.66
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳
2010 5371 22.89% 2205 31.79% 1.58 69.41% 39.97% 27.82
Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
咘Ꭱ
Ёֵ䆕ࠌ亳ક佂᭭㸠Ϯ佪ᐁߚᵤᏜ ⬉䆱˖010-84588566 䚂ӊ˖whuang@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120026
㘨㋏Ҏ˖䯏ᅣӳ
⬉䆱˖010-84588078 䚂ӊ˖wenhw@citics.com
Ⳍᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄
ঠક⠠䖤ࡼᬊܹ㾘ࡴ䗳ᠽᓴDŽな 1573 छ㑻ѻકЁકԡߎॖӋ 1573 ˈܗᰃ᱂䗮㺙ѻકⱘ 2.5 ˈס2011 ᑈ䫔䞣᳝ᳯ䖒ࠄ 500 ৼ˗᱂䗮㺙 な 1573 ҹӋЎܜᎽ催ッᔶ䈵ˈߎॖӋৠ↨䭓 27%DŽ⡍᳆㋏߫䗮䖛ᓩ म䫔ଂ݀ৌᢧᆑ䫔ଂ⏴䘧ǃߎᑈӑ⡍᳆Џᬏಶ䌁Ꮦഎǃᓔথな啘ὖᗉѻ કᠧ䗴ᮄӬˈㄪ⬹ᑊВ䇟∖خخᔎDŽ
“Ёકԡ”ᇚな 1573 ᮄ催ᑺ................................................................................................................. 4 ЁӋԡ䜦乍ᑊВᳳᳯᅲ⦄さ⸈ ...................................................................................................................... 6 䫔ଂԧ㋏ᬍ䴽㧹䫔ᓣ߯ᮄ▔থ䫔ଂ⌏ .......................................................................................................... 8 㧹䫔ԧ㋏⏅ᑺ䇗ᭈˈ乚ᇐᣖᏙ᳝߽ᅲᮑ .......................................................................................................... 8 ᶦ⊝ᓣᬜᵰ⏤ᰒˈ㾘᳝ᳯᣕ㓁ᠽ .......................................................................................................... 8 ᳳᴗ䌍⫼᨞䫔ᕅડϮ㒽᳝䰤 .................................................................................................................................... 10 乘⌟ 2011-2012 ᑈ EPS Ў 2.10 ܗ 2.62 ܗ.......................................................................................................... 11
382.27 ⱒϛܗ
1.lj⋌Ꮂ㗕な˄000568˅䎳䏾ਞ-䖭䞠ⱘ
咢ᯢ䴭ᙘᙘNJ ............................ 2010-12-18
2.lj⋌Ꮂ㗕な˄000568˅-㧹䫔ԧ㋏ᓣ
⏅࣪ˈᔎ࣪䭓乘ᳳNJ .......... 2010-10-25
3.lj⋌Ꮂ㗕な˄000568˅䇗ⷨਞüᮄક
2011 ᑈ 3 ᳜ 28 ᮹ 䆕ࠌⷨおਞg݀ৌⷨおg亳ક佂᭭㸠Ϯ
⋌Ꮂ㗕な˄000568˅2010 ᑈᑈ⚍䆘
ᑈᓔྟ䎼䍞ᓣথሩ
фܹ˄㓈ᣕ
ᔧࠡӋ˖44.51 ܗ ⳂᷛӋ˖72.60 ܗ
ᡩ䌘㽕⚍
ᑈϮ㒽ヺড়៥Ӏ乘ᳳDŽ2010 ᑈˈ݀ৌᅲ⦄㧹Ϯᬊܹ 53.71 ғˈܗৠ↨䭓 22.89%˗ᅲ⦄ᔦሲѢ↡݀ৌ᠔᳝㗙߽ޔ⍺ 22.05 ғˈܗৠ↨䭓 31.79%˗↣ 㙵ᬊⲞ 1.58 ˈܗ催ѢϮ㒽ᖿ 0.01 ܗDŽߚ䜡ᮍḜ˖↣ 10 㙵⌒ 10 ˅˄ܗDŽ
ϞᏖ㚆߽⍺䭓⚍ˈ㧹䫔䇗ᭈᠧ䗴䭓ᳳ
ゲѝNJ .................................... 2010-10-15
䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ
⋌Ꮂ㗕な˄000568˅ᑈ⚍䆘-2011 ᑈᓔྟ䎼䍞ᓣথሩ
Ⳃᔩ
2010 ᑈϮ㒽ヺড়乘ᳳˈ催ѢϮ㒽ᖿ 0.01 ˈܗ10 ⌒ 10 ܗ...................................................................... 1 ঠક⠠䖤ࡼᬊܹ㾘ࡴ䗳ᠽᓴ .......................................................................................................................... 4
䫔ଂԧ㋏ᬍ䴽㧹䫔ᓣ߯ᮄ▔থ䫔ଂ⌏DŽ݀ৌ乚ᇐሖЏㅵ䫔ଂǃᬍ䴽䫔 ଂ偼ᑆ▔ࢅᴎࠊǃ䫔ଂ⏴䘧ⱘ᠕ᑇ࣪ҹঞ䆩⚍ϝ㑻䫔ଂԧ㋏ˈᑊࡴᔎⳈϧ पᑫᓎ䆒ˈ乘䅵ᇚᇍ݀ৌ䫔ଂ䌍⫼ⱘࠊ䫔ଂᬜᵰⱘԧ⦄᳝ᯢᰒᐂࡽDŽ
亢䰽ᦤ冫˖ᅣ㾖㒣⌢⊶ࡼDŽ
ⳂᷛӋ ˈܗ㓈ᣕĀфܹā䆘㑻DŽ៥Ӏ乘⌟݀ৌ ᑈ ᑈᭈԧ (36 Ў ؛˄ܗᅮࠌଚϮࡵ↣ᑈ ( ܗ36˅ˈⳂᷛӋ ˈܗ ᇍᑨ ᑈⱑ䜦ϮࡵϮ㒽 ס3(ˈ㓈ᣕĀфܹā䆘㑻DŽ
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳
Џ㽕᭄
Ёᷛ 300 ᣛ᭄
2814.42 ⚍
ᘏ㙵ᴀ/⌕䗮㙵ᴀ 1394.24 /715.35 ⱒϛ㙵
䖥 12 ᳔᳜催/᳔Ԣ
47.94 ܗ/27.58 ܗ
䖥 1 ᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ
-7.17%
䖥 6 ᳜㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ
6.27%
Ҟᑈҹᴹ㒱ᇍ⍼ᐙ
-11.67%
12 Ͼ᳜᮹ഛ៤Ѹ乱
ᦦⳂᔩ
1˖⋌Ꮂ㗕なᬊܹϢ߽⍺ঞৠ↨ᐙग़ᑈ㒳䅵.................................................................................................... 2 2˖⋌Ꮂ㗕なᬊܹϢ߽⍺ঞৠ↨ᐙߚᄷᑺ㒳䅵................................................................................................ 2 3˖⋌Ꮂ㗕な↯߽⥛ঞ䌍⫼⥛ग़ᑈ㒳䅵................................................................................................................ 3 4˖⋌Ꮂ㗕な↯߽⥛ঞ䌍⫼⥛ߚᄷᑺ㒳䅵............................................................................................................ 3 5˖⋌Ꮂ㗕な乘ᬊ䋺ℒ䗤ᄷ᭄ᇍ↨ߚᵤ............................................................................................................ 3 6˖⋌Ꮂ㗕な 2013 ᑈ䫔ଂⳂᷛߚ㾷.................................................................................................................. 4 7˖⋌Ꮂ㗕なな 1573 ᱂䗮㺙.............................................................................................................................. 5 8˖⋌Ꮂ㗕なな 1573 ㋏߫ѻકüüЁકԡ.................................................................................................. 5 9˖な 1573 ᦤӋग़ ......................................................................................................................................... 5 10˖2009 ᑈҹᴹ 52eな 1573 ӋḐ䍄.......................................................................................................... 6 11˖⋌Ꮂ㗕な⡍᳆㋏߫üüᑈӑ⡍᳆.................................................................................................................. 8 12˖⋌Ꮂ㗕なな啘䜦——ⱒᑈ⋌Ꮂ㗕な.............................................................................................................. 8 13˖⋌Ꮂ㗕な䫔ଂ䌍⫼⥛ব࣪.............................................................................................................................. 9
2011E 7385 37.50% 2922 32.50% 2.10 70.50% 40.00% 21.00
2012E 9231 25.00% 3652 25.00% 2.62 70.80% 40.10% 16.80
⊼˖㙵ӋЎ 2010 ᑈ 10 ᳜ 24 ᮹ᬊⲬ
2013E 11539 25.00%ຫໍສະໝຸດ Baidu4566 25.00% 3.27 71.00% 40.20% 13.44
2010 ᑈ㒣㧹ᚙؐމᕫ݇⊼ⱘ᳝ϝ⚍˖1˅ᬊܹ䭓Џ㽕ᴹ㞾Ѣ催ッ䜦ˈ2011 ᑈ䫔ଂⳂᷛ 37.51%DŽ催ḷ䜦㧹Ϯᬊܹ 35.19 ғˈܗ䭓 33.33%ˈЁԢḷ 䜦ᅲ⦄ᬊܹ 16.70 ғˈ䭓 6.10%DŽ݀ৌ㾘ߦ 2011 ᑈᅲ⦄ᬊܹ 86.41 ғ˄ᠷ 䰸ؐৢᡬড় 73.85 ғˈ䕗 2010 ᑈᅲ䰙ᬊܹ 37.51%˅ˈᑊৠᯊ㾘ߦ 2013 ᑈᅲ⦄ 130 ғᬊܹ˗2˅↯߽⥛Ϟछˈ䫔ଂ䌍⫼⥛ϟ䰡ˈ⍜䌍ᕅડ䕗 ᇣDŽ㓐ড়↯߽⥛ 69.41%ˈৠ↨Ϟछ 2.76 Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈЏ㽕⬅Ѣ催ḷ䜦ᦤӋ ᬊܹऴ↨ࡴ᠔㟈˗䫔ଂ䌍⫼⥛ 6.02%ˈৠ↨ϟ䰡 5.41 Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈᶦ⊝݀ ৌᡓᢙ䚼ߚ䫔ଂ䌍⫼˗ㅵ⧚䌍⫼Ёࡴ㙵ᴗ䌍䅵ᦤ 1.09 ғˈᕅડ EPS0.08 ˈܗ2011 ᑈҡ䳔䅵ᦤ 1.19 ғˈᕅડ EPS0.09 ˗ܗ㧹Ϯ䞥ঞ䰘ࡴऴᬊܹ↨ 8.15%ˈ䕗 2009 ᑈछ 0.74%˗3˅ढ㽓䆕ࠌᬊⲞ〇ᅮˈ乘ᬊ䋺ℒঞᄬ䋻߯ग़ ᮄ催DŽ2010 ᑈढ㽓䆕ࠌᴗⲞᡩ䌘ᬊⲞ 3.51 ғˈᡬড় EPS0.25 ˈܗ䕗 2009 ᑈᡩ䌘ᬊⲞޣᇥ 0.06 ғ˗乘ᬊ䋺ℒ 10.57 ғˈܗ䕗Ϟᑈࡴ 3.98 ғ˗ᄬ 䋻 14.86 ғˈܗ䕗Ϟᑈࡴ 2.90 ғDŽѠ㗙᭄ഛ߯݀ৌϞᏖҹᴹᮄ催DŽ
㧹Ϯᬊܹ˄ⱒϛ˅ 䭓⥛ YoY% ߽ޔ⍺˄ⱒϛ˅ 䭓⥛ YoY% ↣㙵ᬊⲞ˄˅ܗ ↯߽⥛% ޔ䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛% P/E
2009 4370 15.06% 1673 32.18% 1.20 66.65% 39.39% 36.66
䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ё᭄ֵ䞣࣪ᡩ䌘ߚᵤ㋏㒳
2010 5371 22.89% 2205 31.79% 1.58 69.41% 39.97% 27.82
Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼
咘Ꭱ
Ёֵ䆕ࠌ亳ક佂᭭㸠Ϯ佪ᐁߚᵤᏜ ⬉䆱˖010-84588566 䚂ӊ˖whuang@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120026
㘨㋏Ҏ˖䯏ᅣӳ
⬉䆱˖010-84588078 䚂ӊ˖wenhw@citics.com
Ⳍᇍᣛ᭄㸼⦄
ঠક⠠䖤ࡼᬊܹ㾘ࡴ䗳ᠽᓴDŽな 1573 छ㑻ѻકЁકԡߎॖӋ 1573 ˈܗᰃ᱂䗮㺙ѻકⱘ 2.5 ˈס2011 ᑈ䫔䞣᳝ᳯ䖒ࠄ 500 ৼ˗᱂䗮㺙 な 1573 ҹӋЎܜᎽ催ッᔶ䈵ˈߎॖӋৠ↨䭓 27%DŽ⡍᳆㋏߫䗮䖛ᓩ म䫔ଂ݀ৌᢧᆑ䫔ଂ⏴䘧ǃߎᑈӑ⡍᳆Џᬏಶ䌁Ꮦഎǃᓔথな啘ὖᗉѻ કᠧ䗴ᮄӬˈㄪ⬹ᑊВ䇟∖خخᔎDŽ
“Ёકԡ”ᇚな 1573 ᮄ催ᑺ................................................................................................................. 4 ЁӋԡ䜦乍ᑊВᳳᳯᅲ⦄さ⸈ ...................................................................................................................... 6 䫔ଂԧ㋏ᬍ䴽㧹䫔ᓣ߯ᮄ▔থ䫔ଂ⌏ .......................................................................................................... 8 㧹䫔ԧ㋏⏅ᑺ䇗ᭈˈ乚ᇐᣖᏙ᳝߽ᅲᮑ .......................................................................................................... 8 ᶦ⊝ᓣᬜᵰ⏤ᰒˈ㾘᳝ᳯᣕ㓁ᠽ .......................................................................................................... 8 ᳳᴗ䌍⫼᨞䫔ᕅડϮ㒽᳝䰤 .................................................................................................................................... 10 乘⌟ 2011-2012 ᑈ EPS Ў 2.10 ܗ 2.62 ܗ.......................................................................................................... 11