新结构经济学 ppt课件
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Kuznets Lecture
New Structural Economics:
A Framework for Rethinking Development
Justin Yifu Lin
Chief Economist and Senior Vice President the World Bank
March 1, 2011
• Initial Endowments (determine the economy’s total budgets and relative factor prices at time t)
• Contributes to new theoretical and policy insights for economic development
8
Introducing… New Structural Economics
• Sustainable income growth is the foundation for poverty reduction and development
• The sustainable income growth is a result of continuous technological
innovation as well as structural change
9
Industrial Structure in New England, 1900s
Failure to:
Guide Economic Policies or Choices
4
How has economic development theory evolved?
Successful East Asian Tigers: Export Promotion
China, Vietnam and Mauritius: Dual-track approach to transition
• Sustainable income growth is a recent phenomenon
30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
5,000 0
1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2001
Western Europe Western Offshoots Eastern Europe Former USSR Latin America Japan Asia excl. Japan Africa
• Provides a consistent framework for the five stylized facts of Growth Report as well as the findings from the East Asian Miracle and Lessons from the 1990s
2
WHY DO WE NEED TO RETHINK DEVELOPMENT
3
Economic Crisis and Crisis in Economics
Rethinking Economics
Economic Theory
Failure to:
Explain Observed Economic Phenomena
10
Industrial Structure in New England, 1600s
11
Industrial Structure in New England, 1800s
12
New Structural Economics (NSE): Key Concepts
• The main hypothesis: Industrial structure is endogenous to endowment structure
Export Orientation and Market Friendly
Government
No one-size fits all
(i) Openness; (ii) Macro stability; (iii) High rates of saving &
investment; (iv) Market mechanism; (v) Committed, credible &
Miserable results
Liberalization Approach Focus on Government Failures: Privatization and Marketization
Mixed Results
1950
1960
1970 1980 1990
2000
百度文库
2010
5
World Bank has been in the process of rethinking economic development
1
Overview of Presentation
• Why do we need to rethink development
• The New Structural Economics
• Industrial Policy and Growth Identification and Facilitation: An application of new structural economics
capable government
6
THE STRUCTURAL ECONOMICS
7
Introducing… New Structural Economics
• Application of neoclassical economic approach to understand changing economic structure in development
Market based economies with proactive role for government
Rethink Development
Structuralist Approach Focus on Market Failures: Import Substitution Strategy
New Structural Economics:
A Framework for Rethinking Development
Justin Yifu Lin
Chief Economist and Senior Vice President the World Bank
March 1, 2011
• Initial Endowments (determine the economy’s total budgets and relative factor prices at time t)
• Contributes to new theoretical and policy insights for economic development
8
Introducing… New Structural Economics
• Sustainable income growth is the foundation for poverty reduction and development
• The sustainable income growth is a result of continuous technological
innovation as well as structural change
9
Industrial Structure in New England, 1900s
Failure to:
Guide Economic Policies or Choices
4
How has economic development theory evolved?
Successful East Asian Tigers: Export Promotion
China, Vietnam and Mauritius: Dual-track approach to transition
• Sustainable income growth is a recent phenomenon
30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
5,000 0
1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2001
Western Europe Western Offshoots Eastern Europe Former USSR Latin America Japan Asia excl. Japan Africa
• Provides a consistent framework for the five stylized facts of Growth Report as well as the findings from the East Asian Miracle and Lessons from the 1990s
2
WHY DO WE NEED TO RETHINK DEVELOPMENT
3
Economic Crisis and Crisis in Economics
Rethinking Economics
Economic Theory
Failure to:
Explain Observed Economic Phenomena
10
Industrial Structure in New England, 1600s
11
Industrial Structure in New England, 1800s
12
New Structural Economics (NSE): Key Concepts
• The main hypothesis: Industrial structure is endogenous to endowment structure
Export Orientation and Market Friendly
Government
No one-size fits all
(i) Openness; (ii) Macro stability; (iii) High rates of saving &
investment; (iv) Market mechanism; (v) Committed, credible &
Miserable results
Liberalization Approach Focus on Government Failures: Privatization and Marketization
Mixed Results
1950
1960
1970 1980 1990
2000
百度文库
2010
5
World Bank has been in the process of rethinking economic development
1
Overview of Presentation
• Why do we need to rethink development
• The New Structural Economics
• Industrial Policy and Growth Identification and Facilitation: An application of new structural economics
capable government
6
THE STRUCTURAL ECONOMICS
7
Introducing… New Structural Economics
• Application of neoclassical economic approach to understand changing economic structure in development
Market based economies with proactive role for government
Rethink Development
Structuralist Approach Focus on Market Failures: Import Substitution Strategy