英格兰银行

英格兰银行：无望2009-05-18[2009.05.14] Don't get your hopes up 别给希望加码

The Bank of England's prognosis

英格兰银行的诊断

Don't get your hopes up

别给希望加码

May 14th 2009

From The Economist print edition

Despite signs of improvement the economy still needs intensive care

尽管出现了好转的迹象，英国经济还离不开重症监护

THE Bank of England’s austere home in Threadneedle Street may not look like a hospital but for the past few months it has been acting like one. As the economic downturn became a full-blown collapse late last year, the central bank’s se nior consultants—its monetary-policy committee—donned their white coats and got to work.

坐落于伦敦针线街上的素净的英格兰银行总部也许看起来并不像一家医院，但在过去的几个月中，它对金融系统频频施救，实在像个医院。随着去年年底经济下挫演化为全面崩溃，英国央行的高级顾问——英格兰银行的货币政策委员会，穿上白大褂开始工作。

First they put their scalpel to interest rates, slicing them from 5% in early October to an all-time low of 0.5% in March. Not content with that, they switched at once from scalpel to syringe and started to inject money into the economy through “quantitative easing”—buying assets with freshly created central-bank money.

起初，他们在利率上动刀，将其从去年十月初的5%一路砍到今年3月的历史最低点0.5%。他们对此毫不满足，放下柳叶刀，又拿起注射器，通过“定量宽松”，也就是用新创造的央行货币购进资产，为经济注入更多的钱。

As with the preceding rate cuts, the new treatment has been administered in uncompromisingly big doses. Twice, the Bank of England has surprised the markets with the ambition of its planned purchases. The initial goal it set in March of buying ￡75 billion ($114 billion) of assets, predominantly gilts held by investors such as insurance companies, was well above expectations. The bank’s deci sion on May 7th to raise that objective to ￡125 billion, to be completed in three months’ time, was also more than predicted.

与先前的降息一起，新举措使用的是不折不扣的大剂量药物。一连两次，英格兰银行以雄心勃勃的计划收购震惊了市场。其3月份设定的初步目标就远远高于预期——购买750亿英镑（折合1140亿美元）的资产，主要是像保险公司这样的投资者所持有的金边证券。3月7日，又决定将标的升高至1250亿英镑，于3 个月内完成收购，这也比预测的要多。

So is the emergency treatment working? There have been some encouraging signs over the past couple of months. The stockmarket has rallied sharply as investors have regained their nerve and fears about banks going bust have receded. Surveys of businesses and consumers have also picked up, as sentiment has become less negative. High-street sales surged in the year to April (though warmer weather and the timing of Easter exaggerated the growth) and estate agents reported another rise in inquiries from new buyers. With an index of leading indicators for the British economy compiled by the OECD now starting to edge up, hopes are rising that the worst of the recession may be over.

那么，这项紧急措施管用么？过去一两个月中倒是出现了一些令人鼓舞的迹象。投资者趋于平静，对银行破产的恐惧逐渐消退，股市行情随之迅速上扬。人们的感觉不那么负面了，对商家和消费者的普查也因此展开。至今年4月份，主要商业区的销售额猛涨（尽管暖和的天气和复活节的时机使得这种增长有所夸大），房产中介也报告说新购房者垂询次数增多。现在由经合组织编制的英国经济主要指数表即将出炉，人们抱有更高希望：经济衰退或许已经探过底了。

That may be premature, given the pain shown in the latest labour-market figures. The number of jobless looking for work jumped by 244,000 between the last three months of 2008 and the first three of 2009, the biggest rise since 1981. That pushed unemployment up to 2.2m and the jobless rate up from 6.3% to 7.1%, making predictions of eventual peaks of 3m and 10% look increasingly plausible. In another sign of weakness, average earnings fell by 0.4% compared with their level a year ago—the first ever decline in figures going back to 1964, though this was largely because bankers received lower bonuses.

考虑到最近劳动力市场的惨痛数据，这未免高兴得太早。从去年第四季度到今年第一季度，渴望工作的失业者陡然增加了244000名，这是自1981年以来最大的上升。失业人数也随之上升至220万，失业率从6.3%升至7.1%，预计顶峰时失业人数将达到300万，10%的失业率也越来越有可能。另外一个疲软的迹象在于平均盈利能力较之一年前下降了0.4个百分点，这是自1964年来的首次下降，尽管这还主要是因为银行家们的分红少了。

The Bank of England doused much of the rekindled optimism about economic prospects when it presented its quarterly Inflation Report on May 13th. This was even gloomier than the bank’s forecast three months ago (see chart). The new central projection implies that GDP will drop this year by around 4%, compared with 3% in February, and will grow by 1% in 2010 rather than the 2.3% previously predicted.

英格兰银行5月13日发布了每季度一次的《通货膨胀报告》，浇灭了重新燃起的对经济前景的乐观情绪。经济前景比起3个月前银行家们的预测还要黯淡（见图）。这次新一轮的央行市场注资也暗示了今年GDP将会下跌约4%，而2月份尚有3%，2010年也仅会增长1%，而非先前预测的2.3%。

Despite this unprepossessing outlook, the bank envisages a recovery starting by the end of the year. It will spring from three main sources. First, the economy will be boosted by what Mervyn King, the bank’s governor, describes as an “unprecedented policy stimulus, both monetary and fiscal”.