第四章 决策支持和人工智能

Fra Baidu bibliotek2020/5/18
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Opening Case Study
Continental Airlines Files High with Decision Support
• Continental implemented a decision support system to provide up-to-theminute flight information.
4. Implementation – carry out the chosen solution, monitor the results, and make adjustments as necessary.
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4.2决策类型
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Decisions, Decisions, Decisions
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Introduction
• Types of computer-aided decision support.
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4.2 如何进行决策
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Decisions, Decisions, Decisions
How You Make a Decision
4.8.1 神经网络的种类 4.8.2 深入神经网络
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第4章 决策支持与人工智能：企业的智囊
4.9 遗传算法 4.10 智能代理
4.10.1 采购者代理 4.10.2 用户代理 4.10.3 检测和监视代理 4.10.4 数据挖掘代理 4.10.5 智能代理的特征
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• Robot - mechanical device equipped with simulated human senses and the capability of taking action on its own.
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Artificial Intelligence
• The AI systems that businesses use most can be classified into four categories:
• Data management –是存储并维护用 户希望决策支持系统使用的信息。数 据管理部件由决策支持系统的信息及 数据库管理系统两部分组成。
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决策支持系统组成
• User interface management –负责决策 者与决策支持系统之间的沟通。包括 用户界面和用户界面管理系统。这一 部件使决策者将个人的技能知识与计 算机的存储和处理能力结合在一起。 用户界面的设计比较重要。
4.3 决策支持系统
4.4 协作系统
4.4.1 企业协作
4.4.2 供应链协作
4.4.3 基于Web的协作系统
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第4章 决策支持与人工智能：企业的智囊
4.5 地理信息系统 4.6 人工智能 4.7 专家系统
4.7.1 专家系统的构成部件 4.7.2 专家系统的应用范畴
4.8 神经网络
• The peer-to-peer file-sharing feature is combined with the ability to create and edit documents collaboratively, and to send and receive text and voice messages.
1. Intelligence （情报分析）– find or recognize a problem, need, or opportunity.
2. Design – consider ways to solve the problem, fill the need, or take advantage of an opportunity.
Types of Decisions You Face
• Recurring decision – 重复发性的决策, 经常带有周期性,如计算计时工的工资.
• Nonrecurring decision – 人们不经常做 出的决策,而且每次确定最佳解决方案 都有不同的标准.
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Decisions, Decisions, Decisions
Chapter 4
Decision Support and Artificial Intelligence
Brainpower for Your Business
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第4章 决策支持与人工智能：企业的智囊
4.1 引言
4.2 决策、决策，再决策
4.2.1 如何进行决策
4.2.2 决策的类型
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Decisions, Decisions, Decisions
Types of Decisions You Face
• Structured decision - processes a certain kind of information in a specified way so that you will always get the right answer.
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决策支持系统组成
• A typical DSS has three components:
– Model management – Data management – User interface management
–模型管理 –数据管理 –用户界面管理
Types of Decisions You Face
• Structured decision – 采用专门的方法 处理确定的信息,可编程的决策,总能得 到准确答案.
• Nonstructured decision – 可能存在若 干”正确”的解决方案,但没有一种精确 的方法计算出最优方案.
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• Nonstructured decision - one for which there may be several “right” answers, and there is no precise way to get a right answer.
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Decisions, Decisions, Decisions
• What other types of decision support systems could Continental Airlines implement?
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引言
• 信息技术增强企业在智能和思维过程方面的能 力;
• 采用决策支持系统还是人工智能取决于决策的 类型和决策过程.
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Decisions, Decisions, Decisions
How You Make a Decision
3. Choice – examine and weigh the merits of each solution, estimate the consequences of each, and choose the best one.
• Robot – 是指让机器模仿人类的思维 与行为的一门科学。如，专家系统 就是用计算机对问题进行推理而得 出结论的人工智能系统。利用推理 过程，根据已知推断出未知。
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Areas of Artificial Intelligence
Natural language
Learning
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Collaboration System
Web-Based Collaboration
• Web-based collaboration tools use the power of the Internet to enable people to work together effectively and efficiently.
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Collaboration System
Enterprise-wide Collaboration
• Lotus Notes and Microsoft Exchange are types of integrated collaboration systems.
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Types of Decisions You Face
• Recurring decision - one that happens repeatedly, and often periodically.
• Nonrecurring decision - one that you make infrequently.
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Decision Support Systems
• Decision support system (DSS) – 是 一种高度灵活且具有良好交互性的、用 于对非结构化问题的决策提供辅助的信 息技术系统。
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Decision Support Systems
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决策支持系统组成
• Model management – 由决策支持系 统的模型和模型管理系统组成。模型是 对某个事件、事实和状况的描述。企业 用模型描述变量与变量之间的关系。例 如，用方差分析统计模型确定报纸、电 视和广告的促销效果是否一样。
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决策支持系统组成
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地理信息系统
• Geographic information system (GIS) – 是一种专为使用空间信息而设 计的决策支持系统。空间信息是可以用 地图的形式来表示的所有信息。
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人工智能
• Artificial intelligence (AI) - 是运用计 算机以各种方式模仿人类各种行为 的技术和软件。
1. Expert systems 2. Neural networks 3. Genetic algorithms 4. Intelligent agents
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Expert Systems
• Expert system, or knowledgebased system – 可以通过对问题进行 推理而得出相应结论，或者提出合适 的建议。
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Collaboration System
Supply-Chain Collaboration
• Supply chain management means working with your suppliers and distributors in all phases of planning, production, and distribution.
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Presentation Overview
• Decisions, Decisions, Decisions • Decision Support Systems • Collaboration Systems • Geographic Information Systems • Artificial Intelligence • Expert Systems • Neural Networks • Genetic Algorithms • Intelligent Agents
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Collaboration System
• Collaboration system – software that is designed specifically to improve the performance of teams by supporting the sharing and flow of information.
Expert systems
AI hardware
Robotics
Neural networks
Perceptive systems (vision, hearing)
Artificial Intelligence
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人工智能
• Artificial intelligence (AI) - the science of making machines imitate human thinking and behavior.