从国庆旅游数据看中国真正的消费状况

Tourists Trap the Real China Story

从国庆旅游数据看中国真正的消费状况

Scenic spots around China are reportedly mobbed with visitors during a long national holiday this week, which has many ordinary Chinese frustrated. But this is actually an encouraging sign for the country's economy.

据报道，在本周的“十一”长假期间，中国各地的旅游景点都人满为患，令很多普通百姓感到烦恼。但这对中国的经济来说实际上却是一个鼓舞人心的迹象。

The total number of people arriving at major tourist sites in China over the first two days of the 'National Day' holiday is up 18.8% from last year. That represents a slight slowdown from 21% growth during the holiday week last year. But it compares favorably with an 8.8% rise in 2011 and just 6.5% in 2010, according to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting.

今年“十一”长假的前两天，中国主要旅游景点游客数量较上年同期增长18.8%，略低于去年“十一”长假期间21%的增幅。但据美银美林(Bank of America-Merrill Lynch)经济学家陆挺说，今年的增幅高于2011年的8.8%和2010年的6.5%。

Other data tell a similar story. On Oct. 1, the first day of the holiday, Chinese railroads carried 10.3 million passengers. That's up 13.2% from a year earlier, according to government figures.

其他数据也显示了类似的状况。10月1日，也就是“十一”长假的第一天，中国铁路客运量达1,030万人次。据政府数据显示，这较上年同期增长了13.2%。Unfortunately, like those scenic spots, investments on the Chinese travel theme have become crowded. Shares in travel-booking site

International, for instance, have more than doubled this year and now trade at more than 63 times this year's expected earnings, according to FactSet.

遗憾的是，和旅游景点一样，对中国旅游类股的投资也人满为患。举例来讲，据FactSet说，旅行预订网站携程旅行网( International)今年以来股价上涨了一倍以上，目前（根据今年的预期每股收益计算的）市盈率超过63倍。But investors should still cheer the strong tourist data, because it signals that Chinese consumers are very much alive and kicking.

但投资者仍应该对强劲的旅游数据感到高兴，因为它显示出中国消费者非常活跃。

As a proxy for consumer activity, the tourist figures may be superior to official retail sales figures. The National Bureau of Statistics tabulate the latter and these government statisticians exclude all kinds of consumer services, from travel to haircuts, while including some government purchases. Retail sales in the first eight months of 2013 increased 12.8% year on year.

作为衡量消费活动的一个指标，旅游数据可能优于官方发布的零售额数据。零售额数据由中国国家统计局发布，政府统计人员剔除了各种消费服务（从旅游到理发）的数据，而将一些政府采购包括在内。2013年前八个月的零售额较上年同期增长了12.8%。

What's more, because many purchases in China are made in cash and off the books, many economists believe that consumption is severely under-counted in official estimates. In a recent report, Standard Chartered cited work by professors at two universities in Shanghai, who estimated that in 2009 household consumption was close to 50% of the economy, compared to the NBS estimate of just 35.3%.

此外，由于中国很多采购是用现金付款，不计入表内，很多经济学家认为消费在官方估计的数据中被严重低估。渣打银行(Standard Chartered)最近在一份报告中引用了上海两所大学的教授的研究，这些教授估计，2009年中国家庭消费接