新结构经济学——林毅夫

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New Structural Economics (NSE): Key Concepts (2)
• Firms maximize profits…choice of technology and industries based on relative factor prices…
Need for competitive market system
#2
– Large economic surplus and high returns to
investment: high rate of savings and investment.
#3
• The NSE’s recommendations are consistent with the East Asian Miracle’s findings.
• Dynamics: Income growth depends on
– Upgrading of endowments – Upgrading industrial structure – “hard” and “soft” infrastructure
• Following comparative advantage is the best way to upgrade endowment structure and to sustain industrial upgrading, income growth and poverty reduction.
Growth Report
• Policy Recommendation from NSE
Stylized Facts:
– Following comparative advantage : Conditions
• Market economy
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• Facilitating State
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• The results:
Miserable results
Liberalization Approach Focus on Government Failures: Privatization and Marketization
Mixed Results
1950
1960
1970 1980 1990
2000
2010
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World Bank has been in the process of rethinking economic development
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WHY DO WE NEED TO RETHINK DEVELOPMENT
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Economic Crisis and Crisis in Economics
Rethinking Economics
Economic Theory
Failure to:
Explain Observed Economic Phenomena
Failure to:
Guide Economic Policies or Choices
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How has economic development theory evolved?
Successful East Asian Tigers: Export Promotion
China, Vietnam and Mauritius: Dual-track approach to transition
• Industrial upgrading needs to
– Solve coordination problems
– Address externalities
Need for a facilitating state
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NSE and The Growth Commission’s
Stylized Facts
capable government
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THE STRUCTURAL ECONOMICS
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Introducing… New Structural Economics
• Application of neoclassical economic approach to understand changing economic structure in development
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“No one size fits all” then “What size fits what?”
New theoretical insights from the NSE:
• New structural economics emphasizes that countries at different levels of development have different optimal industrial structures, firm sizes, capital requirements and nature of risks, therefore, many institutions and policies should be different accordingly and have different policy insights compared to the old structuralism and neoclassics:
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Industrial Structure in New England, 1600s
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Industrial Structure in New England, 1800s
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New Structural Economics (NSE): Key Concepts
• The main hypothesis: Industrial structure is endogenous to endowment structure
• Financial institutions:
– Old structuralism: Direct government mobilization and allocation of financial resources. – Neoclassics: Financial liberalization and development of modern big banks and equity market – New structural economics: Optimal financial structure will be different depending on level of
– Openness and advantage of backwardness
wenku.baidu.com
#1
– Competitiveness and strong external as well as fiscal
accounts: fewer home-grown crises and larger scope for countercyclical fiscal policies.
• Contributes to new theoretical and policy insights for economic development
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Introducing… New Structural Economics
• Sustainable income growth is the foundation for poverty reduction and development
Export Orientation and Market Friendly
Government
No one-size fits all
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(i) Openness; (ii) Macro stability; (iii) High rates of saving &
investment; (iv) Market mechanism; (v) Committed, credible &
• Sustainable income growth is a recent phenomenon
30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
5,000 0
1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2001
Western Europe Western Offshoots Eastern Europe Former USSR Latin America Japan Asia excl. Japan Africa
• The sustainable income growth is a result of continuous technological
innovation as well as structural changAe
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Industrial Structure in New England, 1900s
• Initial Endowments (determine the economy’s total budgets and relative factor prices at time t)
– Comparative advantage – Optimal industrial structure (endogenous).
• Fiscal stimulus:
– Old structuralism: Keynesian stimulus, using tax and expenditure policies to offset business cycles.
– Neoclassics: Ricardian Equivalence, warming against the use of fiscal stimulus. – New Structural economics: Beyond Keynesianism, using public investments to invest in
development. For low-income countries, small, local financial institutions should be the core of financial structure; and big banks and equity market will play increasingly important role as the firm size and risks increase with the level of development.
• Provides a consistent framework for the five stylized facts of Growth Report as well as the findings from the East Asian Miracle and Lessons from the 1990s
Market based economies with proactive role for government
Rethink Development
Structuralist Approach Focus on Market Failures: Import Substitution Strategy
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Overview of Presentation
• Why do we need to rethink development
• The New Structural Economics
• Industrial Policy and Growth Identification and Facilitation: An application of new structural economics
Kuznets Lecture
New Structural Economics:
A Framework for Rethinking Development
Justin Yifu Lin
Chief Economist and Senior Vice President the World Bank
March 1, 2011