投资学-行为金融和技术分析

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例 12.4 移动平均Moving Averages
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图12.6 移动平均Moving Averages
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Fra Baidu bibliotek
表 12.1 幅度Breadth
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图12.7 市场日报Market Diary
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套利限制Limits to Arbitrage 基本风险Fundamental Risk 实施成本Implementation Costs 模型风险Model Risk
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套利限制及一价法则Limits to Arbitrage and the Law of One Price
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Figure 12.4 道琼斯工业平均指数（1988）Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1988
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图 12.5 微软的移动平均Moving Average for Microsoft
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行为偏差Behavioral Biases 框架偏差Framing 心理账户Mental Accounting 逃避后悔Regret Avoidance 期望理论Prospect Theory
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图12.1 期望理论
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连体双胞胎公司Siamese Twin Companies 股票分拆上市Equity Carve-outs 封闭式基金Closed-End Funds
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图 12.2 荷兰皇家与壳牌的相对价格Pricing of Royal Dutch Relative to Shell (与平价的偏离 Deviation from Parity)
投资学
第12章 12章
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行为金融和技术分析 Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis
McGrawMcGraw-Hill/Irwin
Slides by Richard D. Johnson
Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved McGraw-
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行为金融Behavioral Finance 投资者通常不会正确地处理信息 Investors Do Not Always Process Information Correctly 投资者决策常做出不一致或非系统最优 Investors Often Make Inconsistent or Systematically Suboptimal Decisions
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技术分析和行为金融Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance
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趋势和修正Trends and Correlation
– 道氏理论Dow Theory – 移动平均Moving averages – 涨跌幅度Breadth
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信息处理批评Information Processing Critique
预测错误Forecasting Errors 过度自信Overconfidence 保守主义Conservatism 样本大小忽视和代表性Sample Size Neglect and Representativeness
情绪指标Sentiment Indicators
– Trin 统计量,见P260Trin Statistic – 信心指数Confidence Index – 买入/卖出比率Put/Call Ratio
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图 12.3道氏理论趋势Dow Theory Trends
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图12.8 52周股票市场价格真实与模拟价位Actual and Simulated Levels for Stock Market Prices of 52 Weeks
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图12.9 52周股票周价格的真实与模拟价格波动 Actual and Simulated Levels for Stock Market Prices of 52 Weeks
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对行为科学批评的评价Evaluation of the Behavioral Critiques
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泡沫Bubbles 证据不支持一种非理性的争论Arguments that the Evidence Does Not Support One Type of Irrationality 相对的新领域Relatively New Field