浅析国际金融危机传染的防范对策

摘要

20世纪90年代以来，伴随着世界经济一体化和金融一体化进程的加快，国际性金融危机爆发日益频繁。而且，危机呈现出诸如破坏性增强，影响的范围不断扩大及国际传染性增强等新的特点。我国作为发展中国家，同时也是一个转型国家，存在着巨大的金融风险。特别是在加入WTO后，随着我国金融领域与其他经济领域的全面、深入开放，在制度转轨的背景下存在相当大的不容忽视的不确定性，利率、汇率的市场化改革以及金融市场的打大开放也有着不可轻视的风险。这些都有可能导致发生各种形式的金融危机以及国际传染的金融危机。因此，本文的目的即在于研究如何有效地预防金融危机通过国际传染的渠道传染到我国。

本文在全面陈述金融危机现有概念和内涵的基础上，提炼和概括出金融危机的内涵，介绍金融危机的表现、特征和分类，然后重点分析一国发生金融危机的内在原因。

在此基础上，本文重点分析金融危机国际传染机制。首先，本文在比较现有的众多的关于金融危机国际传染的内涵的基础上，界定了金融危机国际传染的内涵并描绘了其主要特征，形成了本文的又一理论基础。接着，我们在分析和总结现有的理论成果的基础上，概括提出了金融危机的国际传染机制之一—接触性传染。再次，我们介绍了金融危机的国际传染机制之二—非接触性传染并赋予二者以全新的内涵。本文对这些作用机制都进行了深入而详细的阐述。

最后，我们提出了一国防范和治理金融危机国际传染的对策，主要是分析我国目前存在的可能导致金融危机发生以及国际性金融危机传染至我国的各种可能性因素及其渠道，并对未来几年我国爆发或者传染金融危机的几个主要可能性因素进行了尝试性的预测。在此基础上，对我国如何有效防范金融危机国际传染进行了思考，并提出了相应制度安排的思考。

关键词：金融危机；国际传染；对策

Abstract

With the expediting of the globalization in the economic and financial fields, international financial crisis broke out more frequently since 1990, which have new characteristics as the power of destroying basic economy boosting up, the area of its influence extending more widely and the power of international contagion strengthening greatly. Being a developing country, also a transferring country, China has enormous financial risks. Especially after the entry to WTO, with the full and thorough opening in financial and other fields in China, the transferring of its systems will bring about tremendous uncertainty that should not be ignored. The reform of the interest rate and exchange rate and the further opening up of its financial markets all contain financial risks that should not be underestimated. All the factors mentioned above will probably lead to eruption of financial crisis and the contagion from international financial crisis. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to give countermeasures on how to prevent the international financial crisis spreading into China.

In this paper we abstract and generalize the notion of financial crisis on the base of stating and comparing many existed interpretations, describe its manifestations, characteristics and classifications, and then emphasized analyze the inner factors which lead to the eruption of financial crisis in one country.

As the purpose of the paper, in the end, we bring forward the countermeasures on how a country keeps international contagion away and how to govern it effectively. We mainly discuss the extant factors in China that will probably lead to the eruption of financial crisis and international contagion and illustrate their mechanisms as well. Here we attempt to predict the possible factors which will mainly lead to the eruption of financial crisis in the coming several years and bring forward our suggestions on how China keep away the international contagion effectively.

Key words：Financial Crisis；International Contagion：Effects；Mechanism；Countermeasures