MiniCase Questions_consulting

Mini Case Questions1. Volvo – The Safest Car in the United States*New US government report shows that fewer people die in a Volvo than in any other car brand in America. Assess the validity of this statement. Now you have 2 minutes to think about it, and 1 minute to give your presentation. Possible Solution:Step 1. The validity of the claim that Volvo has the safest car in the US because fewer people die in it is at best ambiguous. I have several concerns about this claim:1) The definition of “safe” — the statement assumes that a safe car is only one where someone does not die IN the car. But it’s possible the passenger died later or suffered severe injury. Now lets assume that a safer car really is one where fewer people die in it, the next concerns I have are:2) # cars on the road - Perhaps Volvo has FEWER cars on the road and you’d expect them to have FEWER deaths in their cars because of it. To test this, I would need to know how many cars from Volvo are on the road vs. other brands, and compare the relative market share of cars to share of deaths.3) # passengers in the car – Perhaps single people drive Volvo’s so there’s only one person in the car, compared to say a Toyota which is perhaps a family car which perhaps carries more passengers. So maybe when a Volvo crashes it kills the 1 person in the car more OFTEN, but in other car brands people die LESS OFTEN, but there are MORE passengers. To test this, I would need to know the average number of passengers per trip in Volvo cars vs. other manufacturers.4) # accidents - Perhaps Volvos get in more accidents a lot more often than other cars, but perhaps once you get in an accident you’re less likely to die. For example, maybe Volvo brakes don’t work so you crash all the time, but the Volvo body frame construction and airbags are excellent. To test this, I’d need to know how many accidents involve Volvos compared with other cars — especially in comparison to their relative market shares.5) Mileage – Perhaps Volvos are driven less often for shorter distances than cars from other manufacturers. If Volvo’s are driven less often, for fewer miles, then it’s possible Volvos have less time a risk of being in an accident — so it’s possible the car is actually more dangerous, but used less. To test this, I’d need to know how many miles per year the average Volvo is driven compared to other car brands.6) The driver – Perhaps Volvo’s are not actually safer cars, but perhaps Volvo DRIVERS are safer. This might be hard to test with data, but to start it would be useful to get the accident history of drivers who own Volvos when they driveNON-Volvo cars.Step 2. So to summarize conceptually# deaths* =(# Volvos on the road) X(# passengers in the car) X(% chance of having an accident) X(% likelihood of dying in the event of an accident**) X(Miles driven per year) X(Driver’s Likelihood of getting into an accident)* assuming fewer deaths = safe car** this can be computed from the original statement2. What is the size of the market for disposable diapers in Shenzhen in 2015? Now you have 2 minutes to think about it, and 1 minute to give your presentation.Hint:a. How many people live in Shenzhen? 10.62 millionb. Because the population of China is young, 60%-70% of those inhabitants might be of child-bearing age. Half are women. Now, the average family size in China is restricted, so it might be 1.5 children, on average, per family.Let’s say half of Chinese women have children.How many of those kids are under the age of two? About a tenth. So there are at least a tenth possible consumers of disposable diapers.To summarize:13 million people x 60% childbearing age x 1/2 are women x 1/2 have children x 1.5 children each x 1/10 under age 2= 292,5003. How many people fly in and out of Shenzhen airport every day? Now you have 2 minutes to think about it, and 1 minute to give your presentation.Hint:a. No two planes could be on a runway at a given time and most likely had to be spaced by a few minutes for safety reasons.With this assumption, I continued to break the day into peak (7am-10am, 3pm-8pm), midpeak (10am-3pm) and off peak times (8pm-11pm). I assumed no flights in the middle of the night. I further assumed planes are spaced 5 minutes apart at peak hours, 10 minutes at midpeak and 15 minutes apart during off peak times.Capacity assumptions assumed 100% at peak, 75% at mid peak, and 50% at off peak. With an average plane holding 200 people, it would be (200 people/plane x 12 planes/hr x 8hrs) + (150 x 6 x 5) + (100 x 4 x 3) = 24,900people.With 2 runways, Shenzhen has roughly 50,000 people flying in and out every day.You can further break the problem into peak and off peak times. To be even better you could give an answer for weekdays and weekends (peak times shift).b. Or you can crack the case by analyzing population and demand.4. How many people have you interacted with over the last year? Now you have 2 minutes to think about it, and 1 minute to give your presentation.Additional information provided (if interviewee asks probing questions):→Only count each unique person once (the interviewer complained that tudents neglected this detail and came up with ridiculous answers like 13,000)—关键点→Defining interact: ever talkeda. One Approach:Break into manageable subcategories and estimate them separately.• CBS(学校、学院名称) - almost 2,000 students, faculty and admin., assume I interact with 25%, so say 500.• Social Settings -Events occur once or twice per week, more around the holidays, so say 100 events per year. The average number of people is on the order of 10 per event. Same people at different events, assume I see the average person 4 times. 100 events * 10 people / 4 times = 250 people. Maybe 50 of these people are also at CBS, so round down to 200 people. • Everyday activities -dry cleaner, supermarket, favorite pizza place, post office, etc. I typically interact with a cashier and server, so assume 2 interactions per visit. Assume 3 errands or visits per day = 20 locations per week, average visit interval is once every two weeks, so there are 40 unique locations * 2 interactions = 80 people. Round up to 100 to account for my neighbors, doorman, my doctor, dentist, and other people I see over and over. • Random meetings - people who stop you to ask for directions, people you talk to on the subway and people who attempt to steal your laptop or wallet -assume 2 people per week or 100 per yr.• Other meetings - people you meet on vacation, at sporting events, shows, etc. Assume 50 people. Total number of people in a year = 500 + 200 + 100 + 100 + 50 = approximately 1,0005. Estimate daily revenues of a 24-hour McDonald in the coastal city.估计一下在海岸城的一家24小时营业麦当劳一天的营业额是多少. Now you have 2 minutes to think about it, and 1 minute to give your presentation.Hint：关键：对于麦当劳这样的快餐厅，从收银台入手分析最为恰当！可以将一天的24小时分为3个部分：高峰时段、白天平常时段、夜晚清闲时段估算每个时段多少小时假设这家麦当劳有6个柜台高峰时段：6个柜台全开，平均一个顾客点餐用10分钟，平均消费为40元白天平常时段：开4个柜，每个柜台平均20分钟会有一个顾客，每个顾客点餐10分钟，平均消费40元夜晚清闲时段：1个柜台开放，平均1小时有一个顾客6.How big is the Shenzhen market for Band-Aids(邦迪)? Now you have 2 minutes to think about it, and 1 minute to give your presentation. Hint: Band-Aids are used to cover up minor cuts. Assume that Band-Aid holds 50% of the U.S. market for bandages. The U.S. population is 1.4 billion.Who are our customers? Are there differences among them? How large is the customer group?The market can be segmented into two main categories of users: kids 16 and under who tend to get cuts more often, and adults over 16 who are more careful.Assume that the average life of a person is 80 years, and the population is evenly distributed. That means that kids 16 and under represent 16/80 = 20% of the population.1.4 billion*0.2= 0.28 b; 1.4 billion*0.8= 1.12b.How large is their demand for bandages per year?Assume that kids get a cut once every two months on average. Once every two months equals six times per year, for a total of 0.28b x 6 cuts = 1.68 billion bandages.Assume that it takes three days on average to cure a cut and bandages are replaced once a day. That makes for 5.04 billion bandages.Assume that adults get a cut once every six months that lasts three days, with bandages being replaced every day. That is 2 cuts per year x 3 days per cut x 1.12 billion people = 6.72 billion bandages.The total number of bandages, then, is 11.76 billion bandages.How large is the market for Band-Aids?The total size of the market expressed in RMB is 11.76b*0.5RMB*0.7 market share=4.116billion。