挑战者号失事案例及决策分析

挑战者号失事案例及决策分析

管理决策期末作业

山西财经大学

管理决策

Task 1 Task 2

班级：小组：成员：日期：

期末作业

翻译案例分析项目管理二班

2021/12/23

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管理决策期末作业

翻译 Group Decision Fiascoes Continue: Space Shuttle

Challenger and a Revised Groupthink Framework

Gregory Moorhead,i Richard Ference,i and Chris P. Necki

This paper reviews the decision situation surroun1g the decision to launch the space shuttle Challenger in January 1986 in the light of the groupthink hypothesis. A revised framework is presented that proposes time and leadership style as moderators of the manner in which group characteristics lead to groupthink symptoms.

KEY WORDS: groupthink; Challenger; decision making; group characteristics. INTRODUCTION

In 1972, a new dimension was added to our understanding of group decision making with the proposal of the groupthink hypothesis by Janis(1972).JaIlis coined the term \to refer to \mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a cohesive in-group,when the members' striving for unanimity override their motivation torealistically appraise altemative courses of action\1972, p. 8). Thehypothesis was supported by his hindsight

analysis of several political-military fiascoes and successes that are differentiated by the occurrence or non-occurrence of antecedent conditions, groupthink symptoms, and decision making defects.

In a subsequent volume,JaniS further explicates the theory and adds an analysis of the Watergate transcripts and various published memoirs and accounts of principals involved, concluding that the Watergate cover-up

decision also was a result of groupthink(Janis, 1983). Both volumes propose prescriptions for preventing the occurrence of groupthink, many of which have

群体决策Fiascoes继续：航天飞机 Challenger和经修订的群体思维框架格雷戈里

・穆尔黑德，我理查德・费伦斯，我和Chris P. Necki

本文回顾了形势surroun曲1G到发射挑战者号航天飞机于1986年1月在群体思维假

说的光的决定的决定。修改后的框架提出了建议时间和领导风格的方式版主其中群体特征

导致群体思维症状。

关键词：群体思维;挑战者;决策;群体特征。引言

1972年，一个新的层面加入群决策的群体思维假设由贾尼斯（1972 ）建议的理解。JaIlis创造了“群体思维”一词来指“思维的人从事，当他们的模

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管理决策期末作业

式深深卷入组，当成员的争创一致重写他们的动机评估行动课程“ （詹尼斯， 1972年，第8页）一个有凝聚力的。被他事后几个政治军事fiascoes和成功是由先前的状况

的发生或不发生分化，群体思维症状和决策的缺陷分析支持。

在随后的体积，詹尼斯进一步阐述理论，并增加了水门事件的成绩单和各种出版的回

忆录，涉及校长的账目进行分析，得出的结论是水门事件掩盖决定也为群体思维（詹尼斯，1983）的结果。两卷提出处方，以防止群体思维的发生，

management textbooks. Multiple advocacy decision-making procedures have been

adopted at the executive levels in many organizations, including the executive branch of the government. One would think that by 1986, 13 years