第4章 费用效益分析简介
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The taxpayers lose $30,000, assuming the bridge is financed by extra taxes. (once and for all) L The ferry owners lose their excess profits of $250 [i.e. 0.05 * 5,000] in each future year for ever. ( area A on figure) L The existing travelers gain $1,000 [ 0.20* 5,000] in each future year for ever, due to the fall in price ( area A+B). L The new travelers: area C = (0.20 +0 )/2 * 20000 = $2,000 for each future year for ever. L
The case
Bridge City
Ferry
City
Case study: CBA to a ferry project
The ferry is a privately owned monopoly and charges $0.20 per crossing, while its total costs per crossing are $0.15. It is used for 5,000 crossings per year.
Future net benefits per year for ever
$/year Ferry owners Existing consumers New consumers taxpayers Society total -250 + 1000 + 2000 Area figure 1 -A A+B C
stage 1 — identify costs and benefits incurred and value the cost and benefits in each year of the project
consumer’s surplus for four parties identified:
Ferry price (P0) 0.20
A
Ferry cost 0.15
B C
Existing traffic Bridge price 0.00 (P1) 5,000 (q0)
Generated traffic 25,000 (q1)
Crossing per year
stage 1 — identify costs and benefits incurred and value the cost and benefits in each year of the project
第四章 费用效益分析简介
Introduction to Cost-Benefit Analysis
第一节 简介
Why and how CBA? (Introduction and example case)
产生
费用效益分析的思想之父是19世纪的法 国人杜波伊特（Jules Dupuit），他在 1844年撰写了“论公共工程效益的衡 量”。在这篇著名的论文中，杜波伊特 认同了“消费者剩余”的概念，并指出， 公共工程的效益并不等同于公共工程本 身所产生的直接收入。
Why CBA?
Typical of the questions on which cost-benefits analysis has something to say: project /policy selection. l If we have to decide whether to do A or not, the rule is: Do A if the benefits exceed those of the next best alternative course of action, and not otherwise. l
The bridge would cost $30,000 to build but would be open free of charge. It is expected that there will be 25,000 crossings a year with the bridge. The ferry would go out of business.
How CBA?
If we assume that only people matter, the analysis naturally involves two steps:
1. how the decision would affect the welfare of the each individual concerned. 2. the change in social welfare implied by all the changes in individual welfare.
早期应用
1936年美国颁布的《洪水控制法案》 （Flood Control Act）提出要检验洪水 控制项目的可行性，要求对“任何人来 说”效益都必须超过费用。
早期应用
1946年，美国联邦机构流域委员会任命 了一个费用效益小组委员会，协调联邦 各部门费用效益分析的具体工作。1950 年，这个小组委员会发表了一个里程碑 式的报告，题为《关于流域项目经济分 析实践的建议》(Proposed Practices for Economic Analysis of River Basin Project)。
费用效益分析应用的推广和强化
卡特政府曾经规定所有对环境产生影响 的项目，在环境影响评价中都必须进行 费用效益分析。 1973年，美国颁布了《水和土地资源规 划原则和标准》的文件，使得费用效益 分析的重点放在了国民经济发展、环境 质量、区域发展和社会福利等方面。
费用效益分析应用的推广和强化
Why CBA?
" benefits of the next best alternative to A" as the "opportunity cost of A". For if A is done those alternative benefits are lost. So the rule becomes: Do A if its benefits exceed its costs, and not otherwise
PV and Discount Rate
Two years? How much should It an interest rate i to earn $A two years from now? [ PV (1+i)] (1+i ) = A PV = A / (1+i )2
t years? PV = A / (1+i )t
Net Present Value（净现值）
Cost-Benefit Analysis
B0,C0 B1,C1 B2, C2 B3,C3
NPV =
t 0
m
Bt Ct (1 i ) t
m Bt Ct = t (1 i) t 0 (1 i) t t 0
(-30,000)
in
Present value at 10% 假定： rate discount •- A、B、C都是每年发生的， 2,500
• 而纳税人的支付（30,000) 是一次性的 +10,000 • 折现率为10% •+20,000 修桥的支付在第一年的 第一天发生；其它支出 - 从一年后开始发生。 30,000
PV and Discount Rate
Present Value (PV) Question: How much would I have to invest today at an interest rate i to earn $A one year from now? Answer: PV ! PV (1+i ) = A PV = A/(1+i )
Case study: CBA to a ferry project
Question : whether to go ahead with the bridge?
Case study: CBA to a ferry project
In any cost-benefit exercise it is usually convenient to proceed in two stages:
stage 1 — identify costs and benefits incurred and value the cost and benefits in each year of the project
consumer’s surplus for four parties identified:
-2,500
B+C-(30,000)
Stage 2: Obtain an aggregate "present value" of the project
折现/贴现(discount)：考虑时间因素，将未来 的费用和效益值，折算为现值（Present Value, PV)
Why discount? Time preference (时间偏 好）——人们认为现在的1块钱，要比明年的1 块钱价值大。 折现率/贴现率（discount rate)
m
Stage 2 : "discount" costs and benefits in future years to make them commensurate with present cost and benefits, and then add them up
1981年里根总统签署12291号行政命令，其目 的是确保所有的主要规则都要进行费用效益分 析，决策要以这种分析为基础 1985年里根总统发布的12498号行政命令，要 求每个行政机构都要将费用效益分析作为“年 度规章计划”的基础，这大大促进了费用效益 分析的发展 1993年克林顿总统签署12866号行政命令，坚 定地信奉费用效益分析作为管理决策 （regulatory decisions）的中心内容，与以 往不同的是，这个命令要求“公平”和“分配 影响”作为费用效益分析的相关要素
Case study: CBA to a ferry project
The case:
Suppose there is a river which at present can only be crossed by ferry. The government considers building a bridge, which, being rather upstream, would take the traveler the same time to complete a crossing.
How CBA?
Assign numerical values to costs and benefits, and arrive at decisions by adding them up, and accept those projects whose benefits exceed their cost.
(a) identify costs and benefits incurred and value the cost and benefits in each year of the project; (c) Obtain an aggregate "present value" of the project by "discounting" costs and benefits in future years to make them commensurate with present cost and benefits, and then add them up.
The case
Bridge City
Ferry
City
Case study: CBA to a ferry project
The ferry is a privately owned monopoly and charges $0.20 per crossing, while its total costs per crossing are $0.15. It is used for 5,000 crossings per year.
Future net benefits per year for ever
$/year Ferry owners Existing consumers New consumers taxpayers Society total -250 + 1000 + 2000 Area figure 1 -A A+B C
stage 1 — identify costs and benefits incurred and value the cost and benefits in each year of the project
consumer’s surplus for four parties identified:
Ferry price (P0) 0.20
A
Ferry cost 0.15
B C
Existing traffic Bridge price 0.00 (P1) 5,000 (q0)
Generated traffic 25,000 (q1)
Crossing per year
stage 1 — identify costs and benefits incurred and value the cost and benefits in each year of the project
第四章 费用效益分析简介
Introduction to Cost-Benefit Analysis
第一节 简介
Why and how CBA? (Introduction and example case)
产生
费用效益分析的思想之父是19世纪的法 国人杜波伊特（Jules Dupuit），他在 1844年撰写了“论公共工程效益的衡 量”。在这篇著名的论文中，杜波伊特 认同了“消费者剩余”的概念，并指出， 公共工程的效益并不等同于公共工程本 身所产生的直接收入。
Why CBA?
Typical of the questions on which cost-benefits analysis has something to say: project /policy selection. l If we have to decide whether to do A or not, the rule is: Do A if the benefits exceed those of the next best alternative course of action, and not otherwise. l
The bridge would cost $30,000 to build but would be open free of charge. It is expected that there will be 25,000 crossings a year with the bridge. The ferry would go out of business.
How CBA?
If we assume that only people matter, the analysis naturally involves two steps:
1. how the decision would affect the welfare of the each individual concerned. 2. the change in social welfare implied by all the changes in individual welfare.
早期应用
1936年美国颁布的《洪水控制法案》 （Flood Control Act）提出要检验洪水 控制项目的可行性，要求对“任何人来 说”效益都必须超过费用。
早期应用
1946年，美国联邦机构流域委员会任命 了一个费用效益小组委员会，协调联邦 各部门费用效益分析的具体工作。1950 年，这个小组委员会发表了一个里程碑 式的报告，题为《关于流域项目经济分 析实践的建议》(Proposed Practices for Economic Analysis of River Basin Project)。
费用效益分析应用的推广和强化
卡特政府曾经规定所有对环境产生影响 的项目，在环境影响评价中都必须进行 费用效益分析。 1973年，美国颁布了《水和土地资源规 划原则和标准》的文件，使得费用效益 分析的重点放在了国民经济发展、环境 质量、区域发展和社会福利等方面。
费用效益分析应用的推广和强化
Why CBA?
" benefits of the next best alternative to A" as the "opportunity cost of A". For if A is done those alternative benefits are lost. So the rule becomes: Do A if its benefits exceed its costs, and not otherwise
PV and Discount Rate
Two years? How much should It an interest rate i to earn $A two years from now? [ PV (1+i)] (1+i ) = A PV = A / (1+i )2
t years? PV = A / (1+i )t
Net Present Value（净现值）
Cost-Benefit Analysis
B0,C0 B1,C1 B2, C2 B3,C3
NPV =
t 0
m
Bt Ct (1 i ) t
m Bt Ct = t (1 i) t 0 (1 i) t t 0
(-30,000)
in
Present value at 10% 假定： rate discount •- A、B、C都是每年发生的， 2,500
• 而纳税人的支付（30,000) 是一次性的 +10,000 • 折现率为10% •+20,000 修桥的支付在第一年的 第一天发生；其它支出 - 从一年后开始发生。 30,000
PV and Discount Rate
Present Value (PV) Question: How much would I have to invest today at an interest rate i to earn $A one year from now? Answer: PV ! PV (1+i ) = A PV = A/(1+i )
Case study: CBA to a ferry project
Question : whether to go ahead with the bridge?
Case study: CBA to a ferry project
In any cost-benefit exercise it is usually convenient to proceed in two stages:
stage 1 — identify costs and benefits incurred and value the cost and benefits in each year of the project
consumer’s surplus for four parties identified:
-2,500
B+C-(30,000)
Stage 2: Obtain an aggregate "present value" of the project
折现/贴现(discount)：考虑时间因素，将未来 的费用和效益值，折算为现值（Present Value, PV)
Why discount? Time preference (时间偏 好）——人们认为现在的1块钱，要比明年的1 块钱价值大。 折现率/贴现率（discount rate)
m
Stage 2 : "discount" costs and benefits in future years to make them commensurate with present cost and benefits, and then add them up
1981年里根总统签署12291号行政命令，其目 的是确保所有的主要规则都要进行费用效益分 析，决策要以这种分析为基础 1985年里根总统发布的12498号行政命令，要 求每个行政机构都要将费用效益分析作为“年 度规章计划”的基础，这大大促进了费用效益 分析的发展 1993年克林顿总统签署12866号行政命令，坚 定地信奉费用效益分析作为管理决策 （regulatory decisions）的中心内容，与以 往不同的是，这个命令要求“公平”和“分配 影响”作为费用效益分析的相关要素
Case study: CBA to a ferry project
The case:
Suppose there is a river which at present can only be crossed by ferry. The government considers building a bridge, which, being rather upstream, would take the traveler the same time to complete a crossing.
How CBA?
Assign numerical values to costs and benefits, and arrive at decisions by adding them up, and accept those projects whose benefits exceed their cost.
(a) identify costs and benefits incurred and value the cost and benefits in each year of the project; (c) Obtain an aggregate "present value" of the project by "discounting" costs and benefits in future years to make them commensurate with present cost and benefits, and then add them up.